Spot Market Pulse: Week Ending September 1, 2025
Truckload spot pricing firmed across the board to close out the week ending September 1. National van averaged $2.08 per mile, up $0.05 week over week; flatbed climbed to $2.55, up $0.07; and reefer rose to $2.45, up $0.04. The magnitude and direction of these changes point to a modest tightening in supply relative to demand heading into the Labor Day period, with the strongest week-over-week move in flatbed and a broad-based lift in van and reefer.
Deep Dive: What the Week-over-Week Moves Signal
Van +$0.05 to $2.08: The pre-holiday shipping push and fewer available trucks typically lift the load-to-truck ratio (LTR) at month-end. Weekly market intelligence shows van and reefer rates jumped into the week ended August 29 as shippers pulled forward freight, while carrier postings dipped—conditions that raise the LTR and support higher spot pricing. Early Labor Day week data also indicate load postings fell as usual but truck postings fell even more, pushing Market Demand (a load-to-truck proxy) to a five-week high—consistent with the van uptick reported here.
Flatbed +$0.07 to $2.55: Flatbed’s larger move suggests acute, regional tightness rather than a broad demand surge. Entering September, flatbed rates had been soft, so reduced truck availability around the holiday can produce outsized week-over-week gains as shippers compete for specialized capacity. Market readings show flatbed broke a multi-week decline with a week-over-week increase as Labor Day approached, again implying an LTR nudge higher.
Reefer +$0.04 to $2.45: Produce lanes showed localized imbalances. USDA’s weekly truck rate report (dated September 3 for Tuesday, Sept. 2 pricing) flagged “shortage” or “slight shortage” conditions on specific lanes (for example, watermelons in the Mid-Atlantic to Atlanta) and multiple week-over-week price increases into Eastern destinations—classic late-summer patterns that tighten regional reefer LTRs and support national averages.
What’s Driving the Market Right Now
Fuel costs edged higher. The U.S. average retail diesel price ticked up to about $3.73 per gallon for the week of Sept. 1 from roughly $3.71 a week earlier. Because spot rates are all-in, even modest diesel increases can lift the national averages, especially when capacity is already tight seasonally. Notably, subsequent EIA data pointed to a sharp build in distillate stocks in early September, which could temper diesel in the near term and relieve some cost pressure.
Pull-forward retail and back-to-school spending added freight. Card-based retail monitors showed August core sales rising month over month, with some consumers and merchants buying ahead of tariff milestones. That front-loading aligns with the strong finish to August in van and reefer and a higher LTR at month-end.
Weather and regional disruptions tightened capacity in the West. Oregon’s wildfire response—supported by an FMCSA hours-of-service emergency extension through September 30—kept equipment tied to emergency moves and strained regional availability. Incident reports from Central Oregon detail large, labor- and equipment-intensive fire activity during Sept. 7–12, consistent with temporary capacity reallocation that can ripple into broader flatbed and reefer networks.
Mixed industrial and construction signals. Manufacturing remained in contraction in August but with new orders returning to expansion—an early sign that freight related to inputs and finished goods could stabilize. By contrast, July construction spending slipped for a ninth straight month, a headwind for flatbed tied to residential and certain nonresidential projects. The juxtaposition supports viewing this week’s flatbed increase as supply-driven (holiday/availability) rather than demand-led.
Outlook for Carriers (Near Term)
Expect some post-holiday giveback in rates as capacity returns—already visible in the week after Labor Day when spot rates retreated across equipment types even as load volume rebounded. Watch diesel: a sustained build in distillate inventories could cap fuel costs, while any hurricane-related refinery disruptions would do the opposite. Finally, August retail sales (scheduled for release on September 16) will help confirm whether pull-forward demand persists into September or normalizes, influencing how LTRs and spot rates trend through month-end.
Sources Consulted: Wall Street Journal (EIA inventories), YCharts (EIA diesel), FTR/Truckstop Spot Market Insights, TheTrucker, USDA AMS Specialty Crops National Truck Rate Report, FMCSA, Central Oregon Fire Information, Institute for Supply Management (ISM), U.S. Census Bureau, Investopedia (CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor).
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