FreightWaves’ latest State of Freight takeaways point to a trucking market that remains tepid on volumes yet increasingly orderly, with hints that normal seasonality and selective demand pockets could provide lift into autumn. For carriers and brokers, that means navigating a “low-and-stable” backdrop while positioning for incremental upside where freight is actually materializing.
Rail and intermodal underscore the soft demand tone. For the week ended September 13, total U.S. rail traffic dipped 1.6% year over year, with intermodal units down 2.6% — a sign that truck-competitive freight remains subdued even as overall network performance is steady. Carloads tied to chemicals and autos improved, but coal and miscellaneous loads pulled the totals lower.
At the same time, West Coast ports are flashing a different signal: the holiday peak arrived early. The Port of Los Angeles processed 958,355 TEUs in August — essentially flat year over year — capping the best two-month stretch on record for any Western Hemisphere port. Executives say retailers front-loaded Q4 merchandise to get ahead of tariff uncertainty, and they now expect volumes to taper through the remainder of 2025.
That “pull-forward” is visible beyond the docks. Los Angeles’ executive director said many importers completed holiday shipments at least a month early to avoid potential cost increases amid shifting trade policy. Early arrivals buoyed July and August throughput, but the port is projecting a step down toward roughly 850,000 TEUs in September — a level that implies less peak-season uplift for surface transportation than in a typical year.
On the demand side, the U.S. consumer is still spending on goods. Retail sales rose 0.6% month over month in August — broad-based growth that outpaced expectations and included a 0.7% gain excluding autos. That resilience supports baseline freight flows in grocery, apparel, electronics and e-commerce replenishment, even as inflation and rate sensitivity temper discretionary categories.
Factory output adds a modest positive. Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August, with manufacturing up 0.2% and motor vehicles and parts jumping 2.6%. For truckers, that mix matters: automotive and select durables are providing consistent tenders, while broader factory activity remains range-bound.
Housing — a core driver of flatbed and building-products freight — is still a drag. August single-family housing starts fell 7.0% to an annual rate of 890,000, and permits slipped 2.2%. Soft new-home construction continues to cap upside for construction-related truckload demand heading into the fall.
The labor picture has cooled but not cracked. Initial jobless claims retreated to 231,000 in the week ended September 13 after a one-week spike, suggesting layoffs remain contained even as hiring slows. A softer labor market could weigh on goods demand later this year, but the absence of broad-based layoffs should help keep a floor under core freight.
Looking ahead to peak season, expectations are being reset lower. Mastercard’s SpendingPulse forecast sees U.S. holiday sales (Nov. 1–Dec. 24) up 3.6% year over year — slower than last year’s 4.1% — with online growth outpacing in-store. Combined with the early-import dynamic, that points to a longer, flatter retail peak for trucking rather than a sharp Q4 spike.
What this means for fleets and brokers: focus capacity where demand is real (automotive, food & beverage, select import-driven retail replenishment), protect margins with disciplined fuel and accessorial management, and lean into dependable contract freight while staying nimble on lanes tied to early holiday inventory flows. Expect spot opportunities to be lane- and timing-specific around West Coast distribution nodes and Tier-1 auto corridors, while construction-linked flatbed remains the laggard until housing turns.
Sources: FreightWaves, Association of American Railroads, Port of Los Angeles, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Associated Press
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