On Friday, September 19, 2025, President Donald Trump signaled openness to Union Pacific’s proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, saying the deal “sounds good to me.” The endorsement adds political tailwind to a transcontinental rail tie-up that would reshape East–West freight flows — and the competitive calculus for long-haul trucking and intermodal alike.
While the Surface Transportation Board (STB) retains the final say, a favorable signal from the White House matters for timing and tone. The administration has already been reshaping the regulator’s leadership, and industry watchers expect a more permissive stance than in recent years. Any application will still face a rigorous competition and service review, but the message from Washington this week was clear: the door isn’t closed.
The scale of the transaction is drawing Wall Street’s attention, too. A Wall Street Journal analysis published Friday noted that Bank of America, advising Norfolk Southern, could earn a record single-bank fee if the merger closes — a reminder of how consequential this deal is across corporate finance as well as freight.
Markets took the presidential comment in stride. By Friday’s close, Union Pacific shares were roughly flat and Norfolk Southern ticked higher, while CSX eased — modest moves that suggest investors see political momentum but still await the STB process and shipper reactions. (UNP +0.13% to $220.61; NSC +0.40% to $283.71; CSX −1.42% to $32.98.)
For trucking, the near-term question isn’t about rail’s victory lap — it’s about network reliability and pricing. If a combined UP–NS can reliably eliminate interchange delays on key East–West corridors, expect a more aggressive rail pitch on domestic intermodal, particularly against dry-van long haul between Southern California, Texas and the Southeast. That would pressure some truckload lanes on transit-sensitive, lower-value freight and could shift some volumes out of highway networks when rail service is consistent.
But the flip side is just as important: merger integrations are hard. Any post-merger service wobble tends to push freight back onto trucks quickly. Carriers that keep power and drivers positioned on core transcons (think I‑10/I‑40/I‑80 parallels) and maintain strong drayage partnerships can capture overflow if rail stumbles — or partner more deeply if rail performance holds.
Expect intermodal RFPs to get more nuanced. Large shippers will likely test “single-line” options against truckload contracts, using bid events to claw back rates after a tough freight recession. For asset-based carriers, the defensive play is density — protecting regional and dedicated networks where rail is less competitive — while brokerages can lean into modal optimization tools and guaranteed-capacity programs around port, border and inland rail hubs.
Watch three practical markers in the weeks ahead: 1) whether the companies outline concrete service commitments and open-rail access remedies that could mollify shippers; 2) how competitors position on pricing and service guarantees in East–West lanes; and 3) whether intermodal box turns improve this peak season, which would foreshadow how a merged network might perform. If rail proves it can cut variability, truckers should anticipate tougher head-to-head bids on long-haul; if not, highway capacity remains the safety valve shippers trust.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
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