Introduction
The week of September 15–21, 2025 closed with 3,175 new USDOT registrations, comprised of 2,925 carriers, 89 brokers, and 161 entities categorized as “others” (freight forwarders, intermodal/drayage, private fleets, etc.). Activity followed a classic midweek crest and weekend trough: Wednesday (Sept 17) was the high-water mark at 820 registrations, while Saturday–Sunday dipped to 125 and 122, respectively. Against recent history, the week finished about 1.0% below the 12‑week average (~3,208), suggesting a market that is steady but not accelerating going into late September.
Weekly Overview
Week over week (w/w) results softened modestly. Total registrations declined 0.9% from 3,203 in the prior week (Sept 8–14) to 3,175 in the current week (Sept 15–21). Carriers were the primary driver of the dip, down 1.7% (2,975 → 2,925). Brokers fell more sharply, down 8.2% (97 → 89), consistent with a cautious demand backdrop and a brokerage sector that has trimmed headcount and footprint over the past year. The “others” bucket was the outlier to the upside, up 22.9% (131 → 161), lifting its share of weekly registrations from 4.1% to 5.1%, while carrier share eased from 92.9% to 92.1% and brokers slipped from 3.0% to 2.8%.
Intraweek cadence was orderly. After a muted Monday (205), new entrants surged Tuesday–Thursday (628, 820, 702), cooled Friday (573) and then tapered over the weekend, aligning with typical filing and processing patterns. The midweek peak on Wednesday was broad‑based across states (see State-Level Trends) and categories: carriers (762), brokers (18), and others (40) all posted their weekly highs on Sept 17.
Two additional context markers help frame the week:
– Relative to the late‑August high (week of Aug 18–24 at 3,427 total registrations), current volumes are 7.3% lower. This echoes a broader late‑summer cooling seen in freight indicators.
– Fuel costs eased slightly during the week, which should be margin‑supportive to new carriers ramping operations (see Market Drivers).
Last 7 Days: Daily Counts
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 191 | 6 | 8 | 205 |
| 2025-09-16 | 574 | 26 | 28 | 628 |
| 2025-09-17 | 762 | 18 | 40 | 820 |
| 2025-09-18 | 654 | 15 | 33 | 702 |
| 2025-09-19 | 529 | 13 | 31 | 573 |
| 2025-09-20 | 109 | 7 | 9 | 125 |
| 2025-09-21 | 106 | 4 | 12 | 122 |
Recent Weekly Totals
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 – 2025-07-06 | 2567 | 63 | 96 | 2726 |
| 2025-07-07 – 2025-07-13 | 3196 | 107 | 135 | 3438 |
| 2025-07-14 – 2025-07-20 | 3096 | 80 | 102 | 3278 |
| 2025-07-21 – 2025-07-27 | 3093 | 103 | 116 | 3312 |
| 2025-07-28 – 2025-08-03 | 2952 | 99 | 117 | 3168 |
| 2025-08-04 – 2025-08-10 | 3096 | 108 | 128 | 3332 |
| 2025-08-11 – 2025-08-17 | 3068 | 103 | 125 | 3296 |
| 2025-08-18 – 2025-08-24 | 3194 | 101 | 132 | 3427 |
| 2025-08-25 – 2025-08-31 | 3021 | 95 | 135 | 3251 |
| 2025-09-01 – 2025-09-07 | 2666 | 91 | 127 | 2884 |
| 2025-09-08 – 2025-09-14 | 2975 | 97 | 131 | 3203 |
| 2025-09-15 – 2025-09-21 | 2925 | 89 | 161 | 3175 |
State-Level Trends
Across the week, Texas, California, and Florida dominated new registrations, with periodic strength from New York, Georgia, and several Midwest states. Highlights by day:
– Mon (Sept 15): TX (26), CA (21), FL (18) led.
– Tue (Sept 16): CA (74), TX (71), FL (50); second tier included NY (35) and GA (30).
– Wed (Sept 17): TX (91), CA (84), FL (77); tied for fourth were NY (44) and GA (44).
– Thu (Sept 18): TX (86), CA (69), FL (55); Indiana was notable at 34, with NY at 33.
– Fri (Sept 19): CA (71), TX (66), FL (51); GA (28) and NY (25) rounded out the top five.
– Sat (Sept 20): CA (13) and TX (13) tied for first, followed by FL (12).
– Sun (Sept 21): FL (18) led; TX (14) was second; NC and PA tied for third at 7.
Three observations stand out. First, the Sun Belt remains the gravitational center of new carrier formation. Second, California and Texas together consistently accounted for the largest daily slices, underscoring their role as both freight demand hubs and domiciles for new entrants. Third, the midweek pop included meaningful Midwest participation (e.g., Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin), signaling continued equipment additions in manufacturing‑adjacent lanes.
Market Drivers
Fuel costs offered a small tailwind: the U.S. on‑highway diesel average slipped 2.7 cents week over week to $3.739/gal for the week of September 15, with the Midwest down the most (−4.4¢ to $3.710) and the Gulf Coast still lowest at $3.389. The West Coast remained the outlier at $4.523. EIA’s regional detail confirms the easing was broad but incremental. Lower pump prices generally improve near‑term payback math for start‑up carriers buying fuel at retail.
Upstream product balances were supportive as well. Government data for the week ended September 12 showed a sharp draw in crude stocks but a notable 4 million‑barrel build in distillates (which include diesel), a combination that helped cap fuel prices despite headline crude draws. A larger diesel cushion and slightly softer cracks typically flow through to wholesale and, with a lag, retail.
On the freight demand side, spot and tender data painted a mixed picture. DAT’s September 19 update reported that August truckload volumes dipped across van, reefer, and flatbed versus July, attributing some softness to a pull‑forward of imports earlier in the summer. While that’s backward looking, it squares with a late‑September market that has yet to find a decisive upswing. FreightWaves’ tender data also showed the Outbound Tender Volume Index down about 2% week over week late this month, pointing to marginally weaker shipper requests for capacity as September winds down.
Taken together, slightly cheaper diesel and steady‑to‑softer demand can produce divergent signals for registration flows. Cheaper operating costs support small‑fleet formation, but muted volumes and rate pressure tend to curb new brokerage launches and encourage consolidation—consistent with this week’s sharper decline in broker registrations.
Outlook
Looking ahead to the final week of September and into October, three dynamics bear watching:
– Seasonal freight inflection: Historically, retail restocking, harvest flows, and pre‑holiday positioning lift volumes from late September into November. Given registrations are running just under the 12‑week average and below the late‑August peak, any improvement in tenders or spot loads could stabilize carrier formation around the low‑to‑mid‑3,000s per week. However, if tender volumes continue to drift lower, expect flattish to slightly weaker net additions, with brokers remaining most sensitive to demand softness.
– Fuel trajectory: The recent 2.7‑cent dip is modest, but the combination of higher distillate stocks and contained crude prices suggests limited near‑term upside at the pump. If diesel holds near $3.70–$3.75 nationally, it would support operating margins for new entrants through early October, all else equal.
– Mix shift within new entrants: The pronounced w/w rise in “others” implies growing interest from private fleets, drayage/intermodal specialists, and niche operators. If freight demand remains uneven, expect this mixed cohort to hold or grow share as firms seek targeted authorities (e.g., last‑mile, cross‑border drayage, or specialized equipment) while brokerage formation remains comparatively subdued.
Bottom line: The week ending September 21 delivered a mild step down in new USDOT registrations, led by carriers and brokers, with a countervailing uptick in “others.” With fuel costs easing and demand indicators soft but not collapsing, the market appears to be idling into the traditional Q4 build. Watch for a demand nudge—via holiday retail, harvest, or project freight—to determine whether new registrations re‑accelerate into October or continue to hover near the recent mean.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, week of Sept. 15, 2025); Reuters energy market coverage (EIA inventories, Sept. 17, 2025); DAT Freight & Analytics (Sept. 19, 2025 update on August volumes); FreightWaves SONAR commentary on late‑September tender volumes.
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