Introduction
As of September 22, 2025, U.S. spot markets are navigating the seasonal transition into Q4 with a mix of softer month-over-month volumes and sharply tighter year-over-year capacity. National load postings fell 2.1% week over week and 13.0% month over month, while truck postings also eased 2.5% WoW and 1.9% MoM. Yet versus last year, loads are up 20.3% and trucks down 30.1%, a powerful combination that has lifted most load-to-truck ratios (LTRs) on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, diesel averages $3.75/gal nationally (+0.27% WoW/MoM; +5.34% YoY). Regionally, the West is cooling after an earlier-than-usual import peak, the Gulf and South Central remain supported by industrial/energy shipments, and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic could tighten quickly as Atlantic tropics turn more active.
Spot Rate Trends
Dry Van: The van market shows a mixed signal. LTR dipped 0.84% WoW and 10.1% MoM but sits 60.3% higher YoY. Spot rates were flat WoW, off 0.50% MoM, and up 1.0% YoY. Regionally, this translates to generally balanced-to-cool conditions out West—where import-driven demand peaked early—versus firmer Midwest-to-Northeast contract compliance but only modest spot buoyancy as retailers work down inventories. The Port of Los Angeles confirmed holiday freight arrived early, with July a record and August still strong, and it expects volumes to ease through the rest of 2025—cooling SoCal outbound van pressure compared with midsummer.
Reefer: Reefer LTR slid 7.23% WoW and 12.2% MoM but remains up a hefty 74.1% YoY. Rates were flat WoW, down 0.86% MoM, and up 0.44% YoY. This suggests capacity is tighter than last year but shippers are still resisting higher spot rates in September’s “shoulder” weeks. Expect localized tightening in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic if tropical systems disrupt food distribution or grocery replenishment runs; the Atlantic basin has become more active with Hurricane Gabrielle near Bermuda and additional disturbances tracking west-northwest.
Flatbed: Flatbed is the near-term outlier. LTR rose 8.0% WoW even as it fell 13.1% MoM; YoY it’s up 108.0%. Spot rates were flat WoW, down 1.54% MoM, and fractionally lower YoY (-0.39%). The week-over-week tightening points to hot pockets in the South Central and Gulf states tied to construction, infrastructure, and energy projects, even as broader September industrial freight remains seasonal. Recent draws in U.S. crude stocks and a firmer oil complex can underpin energy-field moves in Texas/Louisiana, typically favoring flatbed utilization.
Market Drivers
Early Peak on the West Coast: Importers pulled holiday freight forward to hedge policy and cost uncertainty. Los Angeles handled 958,355 TEUs in August after a record July, with port leadership guiding for softer volumes through year-end. Result: Southern California outbound vans look cooler now versus midsummer, and transload demand is more normalized.
Atlantic Tropics Reawaken: Hurricane Gabrielle intensified over the central Atlantic, and forecasters are watching multiple disturbances with East Coast potential over the next week. Even glancing blows can cause surf-related port disruptions, terminal slowdowns, and downstream trucking imbalances—particularly for reefer and time-sensitive retail freight along Florida–Carolinas–Mid-Atlantic corridors. Keep an eye on Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston for short-notice gate or berth changes and the associated trucking ripples.
Energy and Manufacturing Pulse: Oil prices have edged higher on fresh inventory draws and supply headlines. While crude in the mid-$60s does not guarantee a freight surge, it tends to support field activity and steel/product flows in Texas, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast—consistent with flatbed’s week-over-week LTR bump.
Fuel & Costs
Diesel averaged $3.75/gal on September 22, 2025, up 0.27% WoW and MoM, and 5.34% YoY per our dataset. Regionally, mid-September EIA benchmarks show significant dispersion: West Coast around $4.52/gal (California near $4.97), while the Gulf Coast sits closer to $3.39/gal. This cost spread continues to shape routing and pricing strategies: long-haul West Coast outbound carriers face higher operating costs than their Gulf counterparts, which can compress net margins or keep West Coast rate floors a touch firmer despite softer demand.
Refined product markets also reflect shifting global supply. Headlines point to constrained Russian diesel exports and stronger Indian exports into world markets—both factors that can swing Atlantic Basin diesel balances in the weeks ahead. For U.S. truckers, the immediate takeaway is that retail diesel looks rangebound, but volatility risk remains elevated into Q4.
| Month (2025) | Van Rate | Van FSC | Van Total | Reefer Rate | Reefer FSC | Reefer Total | Flatbed Rate | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | $1.57 | $0.39 | $1.96 | $1.86 | $0.42 | $2.28 | $2.11 | $0.46 | $2.57 |
| May | $1.62 | $0.37 | $1.99 | $1.95 | $0.41 | $2.36 | $2.13 | $0.45 | $2.58 |
| Jun | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| Jul | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| Aug | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| Sep | $1.62 | $0.42 | $2.04 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
Carrier Outlook
Hot Markets:
- South Central/Gulf (Flatbed): Watch Texas–Louisiana–Oklahoma for week-over-week tightening tied to construction and energy. Align capacity on outbound Houston, DFW, and OKC flatbed lanes; expect solid tender acceptance but opportunistic spot premiums on short-notice steel, pipe, and project freight.
- Southeast/Mid-Atlantic (Van/Reefer on Watch): With the Atlantic basin active, even peripheral tropical impacts can scramble port schedules and grocery/DC replenishment. Keep tractors staged near Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, and inland hubs (Atlanta, Charlotte) for rapid redeployments if storms alter freight flows.
Cool Markets:
- Southern California Westbound/Outbound Vans: The holiday import surge arrived early; port officials expect easing through the remainder of 2025. Anticipate more balanced capacity and disciplined pricing. Focus on lane density and minimizing empty miles rather than rate chasing.
- Upper Midwest Dry Van: Between back-to-school and the heavy holiday e-commerce wave, spot demand is typical-to-soft. Look for incremental firming as harvest logistics ramp into October, especially for food and packaging inputs moving regionally. (Seasonal inference.)
Pricing and Fuel: Despite YoY-tight LTRs, September spot rates are essentially flat WoW across all modes and modestly lower MoM, indicating shippers still have leverage in many lanes. Given diesel at $3.75 and West Coast retail above $4.50, carriers should adjust FSC tables by region and length of haul; shippers should expect FSC updates that reflect PADD-level disparities even if base rates are steady.
Bottom line: Year over year, capacity is markedly tighter—especially for flatbed and reefer—but September’s pull-forwarded peak and shoulder-season dynamics left spot rates mostly unchanged week to week. Expect a more uneven map in the coming 2–3 weeks: cooler West, steady Midwest, and potentially hot Southeast if storms clip major gateways. Stay nimble on dwell and appointment windows along the Eastern Seaboard, and use regional FSCs and multi-stop optimizations to preserve margins as diesel drifts.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update; This Week in Petroleum), Port of Los Angeles news release (Sept. 17, 2025), Reuters energy and ports reporting (Sept. 17 & 24, 2025), Washington Post Capital Weather Gang (Sept. 24, 2025), Associated Press weather advisories (Sept. 21, 2025), Politico trade/ports coverage (Sept. 17, 2025).
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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