Analysts have trimmed truckload earnings expectations heading into third-quarter reporting, reflecting a market that looks sturdier on the surface than it feels at the margin. The latest FreightWaves analysis points to lowered profit forecasts across several TL names as demand remains uneven, costs are shifting, and any bid-season leverage is proving hard to sustain. ([]())
Fresh macro readings this week reinforce the caution. S&P Global’s flash September PMI showed U.S. business activity still expanding but moderating, with firms again citing tariffs as a key driver of higher input costs and the survey flagging the largest rise in unsold factory inventories in its history—conditions that typically sap freight urgency and price power for carriers.
On the ground, truckload spot indicators are sending a nuanced signal. DAT reported on Sept. 23 that dry van load posts rose another 6% week over week and the load-to-truck ratio settled at 6.05, yet national linehaul averaged just $1.65 per mile and key Midwest lanes softened—evidence that capacity remains readily available despite incremental demand. DAT also highlighted August containerized imports falling 7.6% month over month and cited an outlook for a 17.5% drop in inbound boxes over the balance of 2025 due to tariffs, a potential headwind to domestic freight later in the year.
Flatbed shows a different kind of risk. DAT flagged lumber’s slump and a 12% production cut by Interfor, equating to roughly 12,000 to 14,000 fewer flatbed loads by year-end—an illustration of how industrial softness can reduce specialty freight even as the flatbed load-to-truck ratio remains elevated (26.68) and national linehaul ticked to $2.05 per mile. Carriers with outsized building-products exposure should expect choppier volumes despite localized tightness.
Rail intermodal, a useful bellwether for surface freight, also cooled. For the week ended Sept. 20, U.S. intermodal units fell 2.5% year over year and total rail traffic declined 2.2%, according to the Association of American Railroads—signs that the late-Q3 freight pulse is steady but not accelerating. That backdrop can limit overflow to highway and dampen drayage and transload opportunities for asset-based TL and hybrid carriers.
Fuel is another wild card to watch into Q3 prints. Oil prices have whipsawed the past 48 hours—rallying on a U.S. stockpile draw before slipping today—leaving Brent near $69 per barrel. The volatility matters because retail diesel lags crude; a late-quarter slide would temper surcharge revenue but could ease operating costs into Q4, while any renewed upswing would squeeze one-way margins where pricing remains competitive.
Why this matters for carriers: the setup argues for discipline and mix. Dedicated fleets and contract-heavy networks should continue to shield earnings better than pure one-way exposure, but the PMI and intermodal reads suggest customers are managing inventories tightly and becoming more selective on price. In lanes where DAT shows firming load-to-truck ratios without rate follow-through, carriers may need to trade some utilization for yield to protect ORs. Conversely, where rates are slipping but volumes hold (e.g., parts of the Midwest), prioritizing dwell reduction and empty-mile control will be key to preserving contribution margins. For investors, the mosaic—slower macro growth, import deceleration risk, stable-to-soft spot rates, and fuel volatility—explains why Q3 TL estimates are being marked down and why guidance tones may skew cautious even if seasonal peaks arrive on time.
Sources: FreightWaves, DAT Freight & Analytics, S&P Global, Association of American Railroads, Reuters
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