U.S. Diesel Prices Edge Up, With Mixed Regional Moves (Week of September 29, 2025)
The national on-highway diesel average ticked up by half a cent this week to $3.754 per gallon, a near-flat move that masks sharper regional divergences. Gains along the Gulf Coast and West were offset by a decline in the Rockies and a flat Midwest, leaving most fleets’ fuel budgets little changed week over week.
Week-over-week, the U.S. average rose $0.005 (+0.13%). Regionally, the Gulf Coast posted the largest increase (+$0.013, +0.38%) while the Rocky Mountains fell (-$0.015, -0.40%). The West remains the high-priced outlier at $4.532 per gallon—about $1.12 above the Gulf Coast—continuing to pressure West Coast linehaul margins.
Regional Comparison (WoW)
- National: $3.754 vs. $3.749 (+$0.005; +0.13%)
- East: $3.750 vs. $3.745 (+$0.005; +0.13%)
- Midwest: $3.731 vs. $3.731 (flat)
- Gulf Coast: $3.413 vs. $3.400 (+$0.013; +0.38%)
- Rocky Mountains: $3.732 vs. $3.747 (-$0.015; -0.40%)
- West: $4.532 vs. $4.524 (+$0.008; +0.18%)
What Moved the Market This Week
Crude tone: Oil futures firmed midweek after data showed a U.S. crude inventory draw, reinforcing a tighter near-term crude balance that tends to support diesel cracks. On September 24, Brent and WTI extended gains following an estimated 3.8 million-barrel crude draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute. While distillate supplies saw a slight build, the crude draw underpinned prices and sentiment.
Russian product constraints: Moscow announced on September 25 a partial ban on diesel exports and extended a gasoline export ban into late 2025, citing domestic shortages exacerbated by drone attacks on refineries—news that can ripple into global diesel flows and pricing. Fuel tightness persisted, with Crimea freezing fuel prices and imposing rationing on September 29, underscoring supply stress in the region.
OPEC+ supply signals: Looking ahead, OPEC+ is widely expected to approve at least another quota increase (≈137,000 bpd) for November at its October 5 meeting. Markets priced this possibility late in the week, which may help cap crude rallies and keep diesel levels rangebound barring fresh disruptions.
U.S. fundamentals: The Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended September 19—released September 24—kept the focus on high refinery utilization in the low 90s and steady distillate output near seasonal norms, conditions that generally temper retail diesel volatility. The next update is due October 1.
Price Analysis: Takeaways for Fleets
The muted national move (+$0.005) reflects a tug-of-war between supportive crude headlines and rising expectations of additional OPEC+ supply next month. The Gulf Coast’s outsized gain likely mirrors stronger refinery margins and product pull, while the Rockies’ decline suggests localized easing in rack prices or improved supply logistics. The West’s small uptick keeps the region as the nation’s cost ceiling, maintaining wide interregional spreads that influence lane pricing and fuel surcharge recovery.
Outlook
Barring a fresh supply shock, national diesel appears set to trade sideways near $3.75 in the very short term. Watch two catalysts: (1) the October 1 EIA report for any shift in distillate stocks or refinery runs that could change rack dynamics, and (2) the October 5 OPEC+ decision, where an additional quota increase would lean bearish for crude and, by extension, diesel. Geopolitical risks tied to Russian product availability remain a wild card that could inject headline volatility. For now, fleets should keep surcharges indexed, consider topping off in lower-cost Gulf and Midwest markets when routing allows, and monitor West Coast exposure where premiums remain steep.
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Source of diesel data is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
