ATBS playbook for surviving a soft market meets a week of mixed signals: small spot‑rate gains, steady diesel, and a burst of new truck orders - TruckStop Insider

ATBS playbook for surviving a soft market meets a week of mixed signals: small spot‑rate gains, steady diesel, and a burst of new truck orders

Owner-operators looking to endure a still-tough freight cycle are hearing a consistent message from ATBS: get surgical about costs, obsess over utilization, and be choosy about freight. In a wide-ranging discussion highlighted by FreightWaves, ATBS stresses fundamentals—know your true cost per mile, secure 100% fuel-surcharge pass-throughs where possible, trim deadhead, and avoid deals that push risk onto the driver without commensurate reward. The goal isn’t simply to run harder, but to run smarter: work tighter lanes, keep the wheels turning with fewer unpaid hours, and use bookkeeping data to spot which customers and lanes actually pay. (Primary source: FreightWaves)

Fresh market reads this week offer both headwinds and openings for those ATBS tactics. National benchmark spot prices ticked up modestly in the last full week of Q3: seven-day averages rose two cents for dry van to $1.67 per mile (linehaul), with reefer and flatbed each up a penny to $2.01 and $2.06, respectively, according to DAT figures compiled by Trucking Dive on Wednesday, Oct. 1. That’s hardly a rally, but it reinforces ATBS’ advice to be selective—use data to chase the lanes where pricing is inching higher and minimize unpaid repositioning.

Fuel remains the line item that can erase thin margins—or protect them when handled well. The U.S. on‑highway diesel average was $3.754 per gallon for the week ended Monday, Sept. 29, up a half‑cent week over week. Regional spreads still matter: the West Coast hovered above $4.50 while the Gulf Coast sat near $3.41, a gap that can swing profitability for identical freight. ATBS’ push to secure fuel-surcharge pass‑throughs and to spec/operate for better MPG is squarely aimed at neutralizing that volatility.

Capacity signals were noisier. As OEMs opened new‑model order books, preliminary North American Class 8 orders jumped in September—ACT Research pegged them at 37,100 units, roughly double August and fractionally above prior‑year levels. Historically, that September spike reflects calendar timing more than a wholesale sentiment shift; still, it hints that fleets are at least refreshing iron. For small carriers and independents, ATBS’ caution about over‑extending on equipment remains apt: replacement can lower maintenance risk, but expansion only pays if your book of business supports it.

On the demand side, factory freight remains tepid. The ISM Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.1 in September (released Oct. 1), but it stayed below 50 for a seventh straight month—signaling ongoing contraction in much of the industrial economy that feeds dry van and flatbed freight. For drivers, that translates to more uneven lane dynamics and longer stretches where price discipline—knowing your floor and walking from bad loads—matters.

Regulatory housekeeping also nudged operations into a more digital posture. FMCSA’s first phase of its new registration system now requires online transactions—paper filings were discontinued effective Sept. 30. At the same time, the agency clarified that eliminating MC/FF docket numbers is not part of this initial release and remains to be determined. For leased and independent drivers following ATBS’ paperwork‑first mantra, that means: get your Login.gov credentials in order, keep MCS‑150 and authority records current, and ignore rumor‑driven deadlines that could send you scrambling unnecessarily.

What this all means for drivers trying to “make it” now: marginal gains are available, but only to those running a tighter ship. Pair ATBS’ playbook—measure every cost, verify surcharge pass‑throughs, prioritize steady freight and shippers that respect your time—with a weekly read on where rates are edging up, and re-price or drop lanes that consistently leave you unpaid. Consider specialty or regional niches that reward service and equipment expertise rather than raw miles. And before taking on a payment book for a newer truck, test your lane mix and customer base against today’s spot and diesel realities to ensure the numbers work when the market softens again.

Sources: FreightWaves, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Trucking Dive, Institute for Supply Management, FMCSA, ACT Research (via MonitorDaily)

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