Werner Enterprises Chairman and CEO Derek Leathers put it bluntly this week: truckload carriers are staring at “horrible” rates while tariff uncertainty muddies what’s next. His assessment captures a market where pricing power remains elusive for fleets and the policy backdrop changes by the week. ([]())
Fresh signals from adjacent freight markets underscore why. Ocean-container spot prices have slid to their lowest levels since January 2024, a comedown tied in part to the front‑loading of U.S. imports ahead of new duties and the demand drag that followed. Drewry’s World Container Index composite fell to roughly $1,669 per 40‑foot box this week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles at about $2,196 — figures analysts say flirt with or sit below break‑even for some carriers. As ocean lines cancel sailings and idle tonnage to stem the slide, downstream U.S. drayage, transload and domestic TL volumes tied to imports are set to feel the pinch.
At the same time, tariff policy remains a moving target for shippers — and therefore for carriers that depend on their freight decisions. The White House is weighing targeted relief for automakers that assemble vehicles and engines in the U.S., a proposal that sent auto shares higher Friday and, if adopted, could blunt some cost pressure in a sector that anchors thousands of dedicated and parts-haul lanes across the Midwest and border states. For trucking planners, the takeaway is nuanced: potential relief in autos may stabilize a key vertical even as broader import-focused categories cool.
Near term, customs operations aren’t slowing. Despite the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, U.S. Customs and Border Protection continues to collect duties and process entries. New tariffs on categories like lumber, upholstered furniture, and certain cabinets remain slated to take effect on October 14. Those product lines are core to dry‑van freight; higher shelf prices or deferred orders could translate into a softer fourth quarter for retailers’ replenishment lanes once pre‑tariff inventory buffers are worked down.
Inside the truckload market, the picture is mixed by segment and geography. DAT’s latest market updates show:
– Flatbed: West Texas energy activity has cooled, with Permian rig counts down roughly 15% from early 2025 and specialized oilfield loads softer as a result. Even so, spot pricing has held firm to slightly higher year over year, reflecting resilient industrial pockets elsewhere.
– Van: Demand signals are uneven. A recent uptick in load posts and mildly firmer linehaul rates in key Midwest states point to localized tightness, but not a wholesale turn in the cycle — consistent with Werner’s view that shippers’ tariff‑driven “stop‑and‑go” behavior is complicating network planning.
– Reefer: Seasonal produce is creating bright spots. North Carolina’s sweet‑potato harvest and associated food flows are lifting refrigerated demand in the Southeast, a reminder that commodity calendars still matter even in a policy‑dominated news cycle.
Why it matters for fleets: Werner’s comments aren’t just color — they reflect persistent margin pressure in a market that hasn’t cleared excess capacity fast enough to lift spot rates broadly. If ocean imports stay subdued after the tariff‑driven pull‑forward, transpacific‑linked truckload volumes (Southern California to the interior, East/Gulf Coast port‑to‑DC lanes) could stay soft into late Q4. Any auto‑sector tariff relief would be a modest offset, concentrated in dedicated and parts‑haul networks. Meanwhile, category‑specific duties set for October 14 risk damping van freight tied to home goods, while seasonal agriculture remains one of the few near‑term demand tailwinds for reefer carriers.
The bottom line: Pricing is still punishing for many for‑hire carriers — just as Werner’s chief said — and the policy environment is doing more to shift freight timing than to grow it. Watch the tariff calendar and import flows for direction, and expect the patchwork — stronger reefer lanes, select industrial/flatbed strength, and wobbly import‑linked van demand — to persist until either capacity exits accelerate or demand gets a clearer runway. ([]())
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, DAT Freight & Analytics, Flexport
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