Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers says the U.S. truckload market has hit an unsustainable point: rates remain “horrible,” while a fast-changing tariff regime is reshaping equipment costs and shipper behavior. Speaking Oct. 2 at the WEX OTR Summit in San Antonio, Leathers cautioned that the industry needs a meaningful reset on pricing even as carriers face a murky demand outlook. His remarks echo what FreightWaves highlighted Friday and were detailed in Transport Topics’ coverage of his keynote.
The policy backdrop shifted again this week. On Oct. 1, a new 25% U.S. tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks took effect, and logistics advisories warn that expanded national-security tariffs on a broader range of goods are in play. That combination clouds fleet purchasing plans and complicates OEM pricing as the industry debates if any USMCA-related exemptions will materialize.
Why it matters: fleets that planned to refresh aging tractors now face steeper landed costs and the prospect of longer—and more expensive—lead times. C.H. Robinson’s October market update flagged that dealers and OEMs are already negotiating over who absorbs the new truck tariff hit, and noted the overlap with pending 2027 emissions rules—another variable shaping total cost of ownership. In the near term, many carriers are likely to stretch trade cycles or shift OEM mix to blunt price increases.
Fresh data on new-equipment appetite underscore that caution. Preliminary North American Class 8 orders in September rose to 20,500—up sharply from August—but were still down 41% year over year, the ninth straight annual decline, according to FTR figures reported by Commercial Carrier Journal. Analysts there tied the hesitation to trade-policy uncertainty and weak freight fundamentals, suggesting OEM production cuts today could translate into tighter capacity when demand eventually rebounds—another theme Leathers emphasized.
On the pricing side, spot linehaul rates ticked up modestly into the end of Q3 but remain subdued. DAT’s weekly readings compiled by Trucking Dive show the seven‑day average increased across van, reefer and flatbed in the week ended Oct. 1, with dry van up two cents to $1.67 per mile net of fuel—encouraging, but still well below prior-cycle highs and signaling only tentative firming ahead of bid season.
Tariffs are also rippling through upstream freight flows. Ocean container spot prices fell to their lowest since January 2024 as retailers front‑loaded holiday goods to beat potential duties, diminishing late‑season import demand. Drewry’s World Container Index dropped to about $1,669 per forty‑foot box this week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles rates down 58% year over year—conditions that could soften U.S. port drayage and transload activity as Q4 progresses.
Fuel, a perennial wild card for carriers, is not the spoiler it was last year. AAA reported on Oct. 2 that pump prices started the month steady, and its live dashboard shows the national diesel average hovering around $3.70 per gallon as of Oct. 1—supportive for fleets whose fuel surcharges lag spot moves. A separate Reuters oil market brief this week pointed to a sharp weekly drop in crude, adding a tailwind to operating costs if the trend holds.
Bottom line for trucking operators: the topline “rate relief” Leathers called for is colliding with near‑term demand noise and a policy‑driven spike in equipment costs. If OEM output remains constrained and more carriers defer replacements, the eventual turn could be abrupt—tightening capacity faster than expected once freight re‑accelerates. Until then, carriers with pricing discipline, diversified contract portfolios, and the balance sheet to delay capex may be best positioned to navigate a tariff‑muddied peak season.
Sources: FreightWaves, Transport Topics, Commercial Carrier Journal, Trucking Dive, Reuters, The Washington Post, AAA Newsroom
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