Introduction
New USDOT registrations totaled 3,221 during the week of September 29–October 5, 2025. Carriers remained the dominant segment, while brokers and “other” registrants (e.g., freight forwarders, intermodal, private fleets) continued to represent small but telling slices of new activity. This report analyzes week-over-week shifts by segment, day-of-week patterns, and state-level concentrations, and then connects the numbers to macro drivers from the last seven days, including purchasing managers’ surveys and fuel prices.
Weekly Overview
– Headline: 3,221 new registrations for the week, down 1.7% from 3,278 the prior week (September 22–28). Carriers fell 1.5%, brokers declined 6.9%, and “others” slipped 3.2%. Carriers accounted for 92.4% of all new registrations; brokers 2.95%; others 4.66%.
– Note on totals: The time-series in weekly_history shows carriers=2,976, brokers=95, others=150 (total 3,221). A separate weekly_totals field lists carriers=2,981, brokers=87, others=153 (also totaling 3,221). The small mix differences likely reflect late classification updates; for trend comparisons, this article uses the weekly_history series.
Daily cadence: Activity peaked midweek and softened into the weekend, a typical pattern. Tuesday (September 30) was the strongest day (653 total), while Sunday (October 5) was the slowest (177). The seven-day average was roughly 460 registrations per day.
– Mix stability: Carriers averaged about 540 per weekday, falling to 168 on Saturday and 155 on Sunday. Broker registrations remained in the low teens on weekdays and single-digits on the weekend.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 (Mon) | 563 | 16 | 25 | 604 |
| 2025-09-30 (Tue) | 617 | 13 | 23 | 653 |
| 2025-10-01 (Wed) | 560 | 14 | 24 | 598 |
| 2025-10-02 (Thu) | 501 | 20 | 17 | 538 |
| 2025-10-03 (Fri) | 404 | 13 | 19 | 436 |
| 2025-10-04 (Sat) | 181 | 8 | 26 | 215 |
| 2025-10-05 (Sun) | 155 | 3 | 19 | 177 |
Recent weekly context (totals from the dataset’s weekly_history):
– This week’s 3,221 is near the 12-week median and 1.7% below last week. Relative to mid-August highs (3,426 in the week of Aug 18–24), activity is off 6.0%, but remains above the early-September trough (2,867 in the week of Sep 1–7).
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 to 2025-10-05 | 2,976 | 95 | 150 | 3,221 |
| 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-28 | 3,021 | 102 | 155 | 3,278 |
| 2025-09-15 to 2025-09-21 | 2,914 | 90 | 145 | 3,149 |
| 2025-09-08 to 2025-09-14 | 2,984 | 99 | 115 | 3,198 |
| 2025-09-01 to 2025-09-07 | 2,661 | 95 | 111 | 2,867 |
| 2025-08-25 to 2025-08-31 | 3,042 | 88 | 115 | 3,245 |
State-Level Trends
Texas led the nation on five of seven days (Mon–Fri), underscoring its sustained role as the country’s most prolific generator of new USDOT entities. Weekend leadership shifted: Florida topped Saturday, while Georgia led Sunday.
Daily highlights (top states each day):
– Mon (Sep 29): TX 74, FL 54, CA 53; Georgia a strong fourth at 43.
– Tue (Sep 30): TX 81, FL 72, CA 64; another Sunbelt-heavy mix.
– Wed (Oct 1): TX 74, CA 65, FL 45; New York was notable at 42.
– Thu (Oct 2): TX 72, CA 51, FL 45; Ohio and North Carolina both above 20.
– Fri (Oct 3): TX 47, FL 39, CA 39 (tie); evenly distributed Midwest/West tail.
– Sat (Oct 4): FL 26, CA 24, TX 24 (tie); Georgia close behind at 22.
– Sun (Oct 5): GA 17, TX 16, IL 12; Florida and Michigan at 10 each.
Breadth matters too. Most days show meaningful clusters from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and North Carolina, suggesting steady creation of small carriers and logistics firms across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest corridors. Cross-border activity also appears in the week, with Canadian provinces (ON, AB, BC, QC, SK) and U.S. territories (PR, GU) showing small, but persistent, contributions—consistent with transnational and island trade lanes.
Market Drivers
– Demand signals: The September ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 49.1 on October 1, indicating a seventh consecutive month of contraction but a slightly less negative pace than August. Production expanded while new orders slipped back into contraction and manufacturing employment remained weak. For trucking, that mix typically favors short-term output movement (supportive for flatbed/van utilization) but hints at softer forward order pipelines.
– Services backdrop: On October 3, the ISM Services PMI fell to 50.0, the breakeven point between growth and contraction, with business activity dipping below 50 and employment still in contraction for a fourth straight month. A cooling services sector can trim retail replenishment and middle-mile volumes even as health care, public administration, and finance hold up.
– Fuel costs: As of the most recent DOE/EIA update available for the week ending September 29, the national average on‑highway diesel price edged up to $3.754/gal (+0.5¢ w/w). Regional splits were mixed—Gulf Coast up 1.3¢, Rocky Mountain down 1.5¢—but overall fuel remained roughly stable heading into October, easing cost volatility for new entrants evaluating operating thresholds.
– Policy/data uncertainty: Several official data releases have been disrupted or delayed amid the federal funding lapse, injecting uncertainty into near-term planning (e.g., labor market reads). For small carriers and brokers that time launches to macro inflection points, this data gap complicates cash-flow and pricing assumptions.
– Trade and ocean context: Early-October reporting points to softer container spot rates on major east–west lanes. If sustained, cheaper ocean freight can temper transload urgency and peak-season congestion at West Coast gateways—important for California and Arizona registration pulses—though the net effect depends on retailer inventory strategy and tariff-sensitive demand.
What this implies for registrations:
– Carriers: The modest 1.5% week-over-week dip suggests resilience despite cross-currents. With production improving but new orders cooling in manufacturing, many new carriers may be targeting steady, short-haul industrial and regional retail lanes rather than speculative long-haul growth.
– Brokers: The 6.9% weekly decline is consistent with a market where shippers remain cost-focused and capacity is broadly available outside a few tight pockets, limiting immediate arbitrage opportunities for new brokerages. Services stagnation also reduces near-term tailwinds for contract logistics startups.
– Others: The 3.2% pullback likely reflects weekend timing and normal variance across specialized authorities.
Outlook
– Near-term baseline: Expect registrations to remain within a 3,100–3,350 weekly band through mid-October, with weekday peaks and weekend troughs. Texas should continue to anchor new entrants, with Florida, California, Georgia, and the Mid-Atlantic (PA/NJ/NY) rotating among the top five depending on port flows and retail promotions.
– Rate and cost scaffolding: With diesel relatively steady and September PMIs pointing to an economy that’s expanding overall but with weak goods-side hiring and tepid services activity, the entry math for small fleets remains tight but not prohibitive. Fuel stability aids cash planning, while soft order books nudge carriers toward dense regional networks and diversified commodity mixes.
– Watch items for the next 1–2 weeks:
• Official August construction spending (released October 1) is a key input for flatbed exposure; weakness would argue for caution in heavy industrial lanes.
• International trade data (scheduled October 7) and business formation statistics (October 8) will refine views on import-driven trucking and new-business creation momentum; ongoing data delays could prolong uncertainty.
Bottom line: New USDOT registrations softened modestly week over week, with carriers still comprising more than nine out of ten new entities. Texas led five straight weekdays, while Florida and Georgia captured the weekend. Macro signals from the last seven days point to a careful, capacity-aware fourth quarter: manufacturing is still contracting but stabilizing, services have stalled, and fuel has been steady. Against that backdrop, we expect a steady cadence of new entrants oriented toward local and regional freight, selective brokerage formation, and continued geographic concentration in the Sunbelt and Mid-Atlantic.
Sources Consulted: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, September 2025 (Oct 1); ISM Services PMI, September 2025 (Oct 3); U.S. Energy Information Administration Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (as of Sep 29, 2025; next release Oct 7); MarketWatch coverage of ISM Services; Reuters coverage of ISM Services and ocean container markets; U.S. Census/BEA economic indicators calendar and notices.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
This content is the exclusive property of truckstopinsider.com. Reposting is permitted, provided a direct link to the original article is included.
