Truckload and drayage carriers are staring at a softer-than-normal peak season at U.S. ports and inland rail ramps. The cooling pulse of containerized freight is arriving just as a new layer of geopolitical and regulatory risk lands on ocean trades—factors that could further dilute volumes available to trucking in the weeks ahead.
Beginning today, October 14, the United States and China each activated reciprocal port fees that target vessels linked to the other country. The U.S. measures—part of a broader response to China’s dominance in shipbuilding—apply at a vessel’s first U.S. port call and are capped at five assessments per ship per year. China’s countermeasure similarly applies at first port of entry and covers U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged, U.S.-operated or significantly U.S.-invested vessels. Analysts warn that these levies raise operating costs and could prompt tactical schedule changes that ripple down to truckers in drayage and inland intermodal markets.
Late last week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative tweaked the fee design just before go-live—setting foreign-built vehicle-carrier fees at $46 per net ton, removing an LNG export-license suspension mechanism retroactive to April, and advancing 100% tariffs on certain China-made ship-to-shore cranes and some truck cargo-handling equipment. While the container-box fees remain unchanged, the broader package underscores Washington’s resolve to push maritime industrial policy, even at the risk of near-term trade friction. For truckers, the immediate takeaway is uncertainty: ocean carriers may protect network reliability, but incremental cost and compliance friction at the pier can still translate into uneven container arrivals and choppy dray demand.
Industry legal and policy watchers note that today’s fee activation closes a 180‑day grace window that allowed ship operators to reposition fleets and test compliance workflows. With Beijing now imposing its own fees in response, the likelihood of additional tit-for-tat steps remains elevated. That raises the odds of schedule revisions or blanked sailings on select lanes—moves that typically reduce box landings and compress drayage opportunities in affected gateways.
On the rail side, a small but telling signal of inland tightness popped up over the long weekend: Norfolk Southern told customers that, effective October 12, empty 53-foot EMP containers would be accepted for return only at the Rutherford Intermodal Facility in the Harrisburg market “until further notice.” For local dray carriers, a concentrated empty-return location means longer out-of-route miles, less chassis and driver time for revenue turns, and higher exposure to accessorials if queues build.
What it means for trucking strategy now: First, assume more arrival variance at marine terminals as carriers and customs authorities implement the fee regimes. Even if sailing strings remain intact, “first-port” fee assessment and documentation checks can create short-notice changes in berthing sequences that tug truck dispatch away from set rhythms. Second, expect occasional gaps between vessel discharge and rail ramp availability where carriers meter inland moves—intermodal dray operators should pre‑stage chassis and drivers for surges but avoid overcommitting on same‑day turns. Third, revisit detention and demurrage playbooks: when import flows wobble, port and rail operators tend to stick tightly to free-time rules, making time-stamped proof of appointment attempts and gate transactions more valuable than ever in dispute resolution. (Those lessons become more important, not less, when volumes are soft.)
The bottom line for carriers and brokers: The market was already cool at the ports and ramps; today’s cross-border fee volley adds a fresh source of unpredictability that can suppress box throughput on the margins. Watch for lumpy week-to-week drayage demand, longer non-revenue repositioning for empties in certain inland hubs, and sporadic pressure on accessorials—conditions that favor disciplined appointment management, tighter lane commitments, and rate structures that price in volatility rather than chasing loads at any cost.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, United States Trade Representative, The Maritime Executive, Norfolk Southern
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