Less-than-truckload pricing power isn’t just holding — it’s setting records. The LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index hit a new all-time high in the third quarter, standing roughly 65% above its January 2018 baseline, according to FreightWaves’ latest coverage of the index. The report also suggests elevated pricing will persist into the fourth quarter.
Fresh data released on October 14 by AFS Logistics and TD Cowen helps explain why rates keep defying soft demand. In Q3, average LTL weight per shipment fell 7.4% year over year, but cost per shipment slipped just 0.7% — a clear sign that carriers are prioritizing yield management over chasing volume. Looking ahead, the index’s LTL rate-per-pound measure is projected to finish Q4 at 64.8% above the 2018 baseline, marking an eighth straight quarter of year-over-year growth.
Broader freight flows underscore the divergence. Cass Information Systems’ September update, published October 13, showed shipments improved month over month but remained down versus a year ago — with truckload volumes gaining share as shippers consolidate freight to capture low TL rates. That shift has pressured LTL volumes while doing little to erode carriers’ pricing discipline, reinforcing why LTL yields remain resilient despite a sluggish industrial economy.
For shippers, the message is straightforward: don’t plan Q4 budgets around a pricing reset in LTL. With carriers leaning into lane-level profitability and network efficiency, pushes for deeper discounts are more likely to be met with surgical counteroffers than across-the-board rate relief. Expect the tightest guardrails around minimum charges, light/low-density pallets and service-mix changes — areas where carriers can protect revenue even when volumes wobble.
One potential swing factor, easier money, may not move LTL pricing much in the near term. While Federal Reserve officials signaled on October 14 that additional rate cuts are still on the table this year — a tailwind for capital costs — the LTL market’s pricing trajectory is being set more by carriers’ yield strategies and mix than by macro financing conditions.
What to do now:
– Audit packaging and palletization to trim billed weight and avoid low-density penalties;
– Re-bucket freight in your routing guide — steer heavier, longer-haul freight into volume LTL or multi-stop TL where it models out;
– Tighten accessorial controls and appointment lead times on dense lanes;
– Time bids carefully — leverage lanes where TL substitution is viable, but assume LTL base rates stay firm through peak and into early 2026 unless demand surprises to the upside.
Sources: FreightWaves, AFS Logistics/TD Cowen, Cass Information Systems
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