U.S. diesel prices ease for a second week, led by Gulf Coast declines
The average U.S. on‑highway diesel price slipped to $3.665 per gallon for the week of October 13, 2025, down 4.6 cents from the prior week’s $3.711. Most regions posted modest week‑over‑week declines, with the Gulf Coast leading the pullback while the West Coast remained the nation’s costliest market. The directional move aligns with recent softness in crude benchmarks and signs of ample near‑term supply, even as distillate inventories showed a fresh draw to start October. For reference, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the previous week’s national diesel average at $3.711 per gallon (week of October 6).
Price analysis: Week of Oct 13 vs. Oct 6
Nationally, retail diesel fell by $0.046 week over week (−1.24%), to $3.665 per gallon. Regionally, the largest percentage declines came from the Gulf Coast (−$0.065, −1.93%) and the Midwest (−$0.064, −1.74%), reflecting relatively lower feedstock and distribution costs that typically support faster pass‑through when crude weakens. The West Coast, while still the highest‑priced region, edged lower by $0.035 (−0.78%). The East Coast and Rockies saw smaller changes (both down roughly a penny to two cents), consistent with more stable local supply and tax structures. These movements suggest that recent crude price softness is filtering through to pumps, tempered by local refining dynamics and logistics.
Regional comparison (current vs. last week)
- National Average: $3.665 (−$0.046, −1.24%)
- East Average: $3.721 (−$0.014, −0.37%)
- Midwest Average: $3.606 (−$0.064, −1.74%)
- Gulf Average: $3.299 (−$0.065, −1.93%)
- Rocky Mountain Average: $3.658 (−$0.013, −0.35%)
- West Average: $4.464 (−$0.035, −0.78%)
Market drivers from Oct 6–13 that likely influenced pump prices
1) OPEC+ output path kept modest increases in place. On October 5, the producer group affirmed a relatively small 137,000 b/d hike for November—matching October’s pace—signaling a cautious unwind of prior cuts. As traders weighed this against already weakening demand indicators, the decision reinforced expectations for a looser balance into Q4, pressuring crude and, by extension, diesel.
2) U.S. distillate stocks fell to start October. EIA data for the week ended October 3 showed distillate inventories (which include diesel and heating oil) down by about 2.0 million barrels even as crude stocks rose. The draw underscores still‑tight middle‑distillate fundamentals, a factor that can slow the pace of retail diesel declines even when crude prices are soft.
3) Seasonal refinery work and targeted outages. The U.S. fall turnaround window picked up, including a “Big Block” maintenance program that took multiple major units offline at Pemex’s 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery beginning around October 10. Such outages can intermittently tighten local diesel supply and differentials, especially along the Gulf Coast where many truckers source fuel directly or indirectly.
Context: Broader market structure reflected growing surplus concerns during the period. By October 13, U.S. crude futures’ backwardation had narrowed to the tightest in roughly 20 months—an indicator of softer prompt tightness—helping cap refined‑product prices despite the distillate draw.
What it means for fleets
With crude benchmarks drifting lower on oversupply narratives and modest OPEC+ additions, the near‑term bias for diesel remains slightly downward. However, two counterweights argue for caution: (a) seasonal maintenance and unit outages that can jolt local supply, and (b) early‑season heating demand that can pull on distillate barrels. In practical terms, truckers operating in Gulf Coast and Midwest lanes may continue to see the most relief if crude stays soft, while West Coast runs will likely remain the nation’s high watermark given taxes, environmental compliance costs, and import‑sensitive dynamics.
Outlook: If refinery utilization normalizes later in October and crude remains under pressure from anticipated surpluses, national averages could grind a few cents lower from current levels. That said, any unexpected refinery disruption or a colder‑than‑normal start to heating season could stiffen diesel cracks and stall the decline, particularly in the East Coast and Rockies. Consider locking in near‑term fuel needs where basis is favorable, and watch Gulf Coast maintenance updates and EIA weekly stock changes for clues on momentum.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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Source of diesel data is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
