Introduction
Freight markets entered mid‑October on a mixed footing. Demand signals strengthened on a monthly and annual basis, yet the very latest week cooled as capacity surfaced and shippers stepped back after early fall pushes. National load postings fell 11.8% week over week while truck postings rose 4.9%, softening bargaining power in the spot market. Month over month, however, loads are up 18.8% against a 3.6% increase in trucks, and year over year loads are up a striking 45.5% while available trucks are down 26.1%—a classic recipe for gradual firming as we progress through Q4. Fuel costs have eased modestly in recent weeks, with a national average of $3.67 per gallon as of October 13, 2025, providing small relief on operating costs.
Spot Rate Trends
The latest week showed modest pressure on spot pricing alongside a sharper pullback in load-to-truck ratios (LTRs):
– Dry van: LTR fell 18.5% week over week but rose 12.4% month over month and 87.0% year over year. Van spot rates slipped 1.0% week over week, were flat month over month, and down 1.0% year over year.
– Reefer: LTR declined 20.2% week over week, increased 5.7% month over month, and surged 118.4% year over year. Reefer spot rates fell 1.3% week over week, 0.4% month over month, and 0.9% year over year.
– Flatbed: LTR decreased 9.4% week over week but rose 26.8% month over month and 114.7% year over year. Flatbed spot rates fell 1.2% week over week, were flat month over month, and down 0.8% year over year.
At the same time, the monthly history shows linehaul rates inching higher into October: dry van rose to $1.67 per mile (from $1.63 in September), reefer to $2.04 (from $1.99), and flatbed to $2.04 (from $2.00). Surcharges moved narrowly with fuel, keeping all‑in rates trending mostly sideways to slightly up.
Market Drivers
– Consumer demand: Official September retail sales are typically released mid‑October, but federal data delays mean market participants are leaning on private and regional indicators. The Chicago Fed’s CARTS estimate points to a 0.5% month‑over‑month gain in September retail sales ex‑autos, with real (inflation‑adjusted) growth closer to 0.2%, suggesting steady but not exuberant spending. Public‑market commentary has likewise leaned on alternative data in the absence of federal releases, noting resilient but mixed consumer outlays. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has formally rescheduled the September CPI release to October 24 due to the government shutdown, adding a layer of uncertainty around inflation trend‑tracking in the near term.
– Goods flows and trade: West Coast import dynamics remain constructive for surface freight. The Port of Los Angeles handled 883,053 TEUs in September—down 7.5% year over year, but strong enough to deliver the port’s best quarter on record at 2.9 million TEUs, up 3% year to date. This mix—high quarterly throughput with softer September comps—mirrors a pull‑forward of peak imports and policy‑driven ordering volatility.
– Weather: Weather‑related disruptions have been episodic rather than systemic. A tropical moisture plume brought significant flood risk across the Desert Southwest during the past week, a development that can snarl regional LTL and intermodal flows and close low‑water crossings, but impacts have been localized. More broadly, the Atlantic season has been unusually quiet for U.S. landfalls to date, limiting large‑scale disaster‑driven freight surges or infrastructure outages during the traditional peak months.
These macro drivers align with the LTR picture: a softer week as shippers take a breath, but firmer monthly and annual comparisons as consumer goods volumes stabilize, capacity remains thinner than last year, and weather impacts are contained.
Fuel & Costs
Fuel remains a swing factor for carriers’ cash flows and shippers’ all‑in costs. Our benchmark dataset shows $3.67 per gallon as of October 13, with national fuel prices down 1.1% week over week, down 1.6% month over month, but up 2.8% year over year. For external corroboration, EIA’s on‑highway diesel average printed $3.711 on October 6 (down 4.3 cents from the prior week, up 12.7 cents year over year), with the next weekly update scheduled for October 15. Regionally, price dispersion remains wide, from the Gulf Coast near the mid‑$3.30s to California just under $5.00.
Lower pump prices, even by a few cents, directly trim fuel surcharge line items and modestly support spot take‑home for carriers when linehaul is static. That said, the year‑over‑year increase in diesel means the structural cost base is still higher than last fall, contributing to ongoing capacity rationalization and helping explain why truck postings are down 26.1% year over year even as load postings are up 45.5%.
Carrier Outlook
– Capacity and pricing: The steep year‑over‑year divergence—loads +45.5%, trucks −26.1%—is the most important macro underpinning of today’s market. It suggests we are late in the downcycle: enough carriers have exited that market balance is gradually improving, yet spot rates are only inching up because productivity and routing guide compliance remain high and shippers can still access capacity without paying up broadly.
– Sector nuances:
– Dry van should see steady Q4 opportunities tied to e‑commerce and promotional retail, but weekly volatility will persist as inventories are managed tightly and some holiday freight was pulled forward.
– Reefer is entering harvest and holiday protein season with a 118% year‑over‑year increase in LTR, yet linehaul is flat‑to‑down versus last year; any late‑October cold snaps that shift produce or grocery demand could quickly tighten local markets.
– Flatbed looks best positioned on near‑term momentum (LTR up 26.8% month over month and 114.7% year over year) as construction backlogs and select industrial projects keep freight moving; linehaul stability suggests shippers are holding rates while buying more turns from committed carriers.
– Risks: A prolonged federal data blackout complicates planning and hedging decisions for both shippers and carriers by obscuring timely reads on inflation and retail volumes. Weather remains a wildcard, though the lack of U.S. hurricane landfalls so far has reduced the probability of widespread late‑season network shocks.
Bottom line: Expect a choppy but slowly improving Q4 spot environment. Fuel offers mild tailwinds, volumes are adequate, and structural capacity remains thinner than last year. Carriers should lean into regional strengths (reefer in produce/protein lanes; flatbed in construction/energy corridors) and guard utilization; shippers should maintain routing guide discipline but plan for tactical spot tightening in pockets—especially where weather intersects with peak seasonal demand.
Spot Rates, Surcharges, and All‑In Costs (last 6 months)
| Month (2025) | Van Rate | Van Fuel Surcharge | Van All‑In | Reefer Rate | Reefer Fuel Surcharge | Reefer All‑In | Flatbed Rate | Flatbed Fuel Surcharge | Flatbed All‑In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | $1.62 | $0.37 | $1.99 | $1.95 | $0.41 | $2.36 | $2.13 | $0.45 | $2.58 |
| June | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| July | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| August | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| September | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $2.00 | $0.50 | $2.50 |
| October | $1.67 | $0.41 | $2.08 | $2.04 | $0.45 | $2.49 | $2.04 | $0.49 | $2.53 |
Note: “Rate” reflects linehaul; “Fuel Surcharge” reflects per‑mile surcharge; “All‑In” is the sum.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update; methodology notes); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI reschedule notice); Reuters and Barron’s (consumer and retail‑sales data gap coverage); U.S. Census Bureau (retail release schedule reference); Port of Los Angeles (September throughput and record quarter); Washington Post (Southwest flood risk, Oct. 9, 2025); TIME (quiet U.S. hurricane landfalls so far in 2025).
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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