CSX’s third-quarter results landed with a thud on headline profit, but the underlying freight mix tells a different story for surface shippers. The railroad posted $694 million in net earnings on $3.59 billion of revenue as a non-cash goodwill impairment and other costs weighed on GAAP results. Excluding those items, adjusted EPS was $0.44, a touch ahead of expectations. Volumes edged up 1% and management pointed to a well-running network, even as weaker export coal prices pressured revenue. For trucking audiences watching mode choices into peak season, the notable callout was growth in intermodal against a softer backdrop elsewhere in the portfolio.
Service reliability is the other tell. CSX highlighted better operating performance into Q3, with third-party summaries of the company’s disclosures showing train velocity around 18.9 mph and trip-plan compliance near 87%. That combination—faster trains and more on-time arrivals—translates into more predictable box turns and tighter schedules at terminals, the ingredients that make rail intermodal a credible alternative to long-haul truckload on many lanes over 700 miles. Expect renewed shipper interest in converting steady freight to rail-plus-dray where transit commitments can be met.
Macro rail data underscore how selective that strength may be. Nationwide, intermodal units fell 3.3% year over year in the week ended October 11, even as carloads rose 1.2%. Year-to-date, though, U.S. intermodal remains up 3.4%. The takeaway for carriers and brokers: demand is uneven by corridor and commodity, and conversion opportunities will cluster where service has improved and boxes are available.
On the customer side of the rail/truck interface, one bellwether just validated that thesis. J.B. Hunt, the largest domestic intermodal provider, beat earnings expectations with EPS up roughly 18% year over year on essentially flat revenue; executives credited cost removal and productivity for margin improvement while Intermodal revenue dipped modestly. For asset-based truckers and 3PLs, that signals rail partners are competing with a sharper cost position—pressuring truckload on long-haul contract bids while keeping drayage utilization tight around key ramps.
What to watch next: CSX said merchandise pricing improved and intermodal volumes increased even as coal revenue lagged. If coal remains weak, resources can keep tilting toward merchandise and intermodal, reinforcing schedule integrity. For carriers, that likely means: firmer drayage demand near CSX inland hubs; more shipper RFPs testing rail conversion on repeatable freight; and continued rate discipline where rail service is demonstrably reliable. Truckload spot may still win where time sensitivity or short-haul density favors the highway, but the competitive bar is rising wherever CSX can pair service with price.
Sources: FreightWaves, CSX.com, Association of American Railroads, Seeking Alpha, Transport Topics, Nasdaq
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