Trans-Pacific spot prices cratered in recent weeks amid policy whiplash and operational uncertainty tied to China — a dynamic now flashing warning lights for U.S. drayage, transload and long-haul carriers that live off import flows. FreightWaves’ latest reporting underscored the sharp pullback, with shippers abruptly regaining pricing power on key east–west lanes. ([]())
There are early signs of a near‑term floor. On Thursday, Drewry’s World Container Index ticked up 2% to $1,687 per 40‑foot box — the first weekly increase after a 17‑week slide — with Shanghai–Los Angeles at $2,195 and Shanghai–New York at $3,236. Analysts expect more hikes next week off mid‑month general rate increases (GRIs) announced by carriers.
Xeneta’s mid‑week pulse points the same way: average short‑term rates on the four main Far East fronthauls turned higher as carriers pushed through “a few hundred dollars” of GRIs. As of October 15, Xeneta pegged Far East–US West Coast at $1,653/FEU and Far East–US East Coast at $2,588/FEU, with Far East–North Europe up 13.9% week over week.
The policy backdrop remains combustible. On October 14, the U.S. and China began charging reciprocal port fees on vessels linked to each other’s nations — a move that injects fresh cost and routing complexity into already fragile networks. Beijing detailed exemptions (including for Chinese‑built ships), but carriers and cargo owners still face a new layer of risk calculus on port calls and vessel selection.
The turbulence isn’t confined to boxships. Supertanker rates jumped this week as the same U.S.–China standoff spilled into energy shipping; VLCC costs on the Middle East–China run spiked from roughly W70 a week ago to as high as W98 before easing — a reminder that policy shocks can quickly reverberate across terminals and tug capacity, with knock‑on schedule impacts for containers.
Why it matters for trucking: when ocean spot rates fall this far, this fast, it usually signals muted booking activity and thinner import arrivals two to six weeks out — the window when today’s sailings hit West and East Coast yards. That tends to soften drayage turns and transload throughput, and it can bleed into domestic truckload demand in port‑centric markets. Conversely, the mid‑October GRIs and port‑fee reroutes could create short, choppy bursts of volume as shippers reshuffle sailings — translating into “lumpy” day‑to‑day yard pulls and higher fall‑off/roll risk for motor carriers. (Analysis)
What to watch next: (1) Whether carriers sustain GRIs into late October — Drewry expects another nudge next week — or resume discounting; (2) any service changes to avoid fee‑exposed port calls that shift boxes between U.S. gateways, altering drayage balance; and (3) procurement knock‑ons if shippers lock in lower contract baskets off this spot downdraft, which would keep pressure on trucking margins tied to ocean‑led volumes through year‑end.
Sources: FreightWaves, Airfreight.news, Xeneta, Reuters
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