Diesel Prices Slip Nationwide as Crude Weakens; Regional Spread Still Wide
U.S. on-highway diesel edged lower in the week of October 20, 2025, with the national average down 4.5 cents to $3.62 per gallon. Every major region posted declines, led by the Rocky Mountains, while the West Coast maintained the highest prices despite a modest week-over-week dip. The pullback aligns with softer crude markets and seasonal refinery maintenance that is reshaping product balances heading into late October.
Week-over-Week Price Analysis
Nationally, diesel fell from $3.665 to $3.62 per gallon, a 1.2% decrease week over week. Regionally, the pattern was broadly lower: the East and Gulf Coast each shed about four to five cents, the Midwest eased four cents, and the Rockies posted the steepest drop at more than seven cents. The West Coast remained an outlier above $4.42, but still declined week over week as supply concerns eased slightly.
The move reflects two opposing forces. On the bearish side, crude benchmarks slid to five-month lows and futures structure moved into deeper contango, signaling plentiful near-term supply and softer demand—conditions that typically pressure diesel prices with a lag. Conversely, U.S. refinery runs dipped with seasonal maintenance and distillate inventories tightened, tempering what might have been a larger retail decline in some markets.
Regional Comparison (Week of 2025-10-20 vs. 2025-10-13)
- National Average: $3.620, down $0.045 (-1.23%).
- East: $3.675, down $0.046 (-1.24%).
- Midwest: $3.564, down $0.042 (-1.16%).
- Gulf: $3.256, down $0.043 (-1.30%).
- Rocky Mountains: $3.585, down $0.073 (-2.00%).
- West: $4.421, down $0.043 (-0.96%).
Market Drivers (news from Oct 14–20)
1) Crude slump and contango widen: Oil settled at the lowest levels since early May as traders shifted focus from shortage risks to potential oversupply. Both Brent and WTI futures moved deeper into contango—where near-term contracts trade below later months—signaling ample prompt barrels and weaker immediate demand. That bearish crude backdrop filtered into product markets and helped pull retail diesel lower nationwide.
2) Distillate draw and lower refinery runs: The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended October 10 (released October 16) showed a 4.5-million-barrel draw in distillate stocks and refinery utilization around 85.7%, with distillate production down week over week. Those tighter middle-distillate fundamentals likely blunted deeper diesel price declines in regions more exposed to seasonal maintenance and logistics constraints. The EIA also reported the national retail diesel average at $3.665 on October 13, aligning with last week’s baseline for this comparison.
3) West Coast supply re-routing plans: On October 20, Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan outlined a project to redirect more refined products from the Gulf Coast and Midwest toward the Southwest and California via new and reversed pipelines. The announcement comes amid planned refinery closures on the West Coast and could moderate future price spikes in California, Arizona, and Nevada by improving supply optionality, even if near-term retail prices remain the nation’s highest.
Outlook for Truckers
Near term, diesel prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly lower if crude remains under pressure and macro demand signals stay soft. However, seasonal factors—heating oil demand, ongoing maintenance, and regional logistics—can inject volatility, especially on the West Coast. Watch the EIA’s next weekly data (scheduled for October 22) for updates on refinery runs and distillate inventories; another sizeable draw could limit further retail declines in some markets. For fleets, consider refreshing fuel surcharges based on this week’s lower averages, and continue route planning that favors Gulf and Midwest racks where prices are cheapest. In the West, recent pipeline proposals are constructive for medium-term supply, but near-term premiums versus the rest of the country will likely persist.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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Source of diesel data is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
