Introduction
Between October 13 and October 19, 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) recorded 2,937 new registrations across carriers, brokers, and other registrants. This week’s data show a typical weekday/weekend cadence but also a clear week-over-week downshift led by fewer carrier starts. Below, we unpack the numbers, highlight where new entities are forming, and place the trends in the context of fuel prices, freight demand, and regulatory developments shaping late-October transportation markets.
Weekly Overview
Headline volumes softened. Total registrations fell to 2,937, down 4.8% from 3,084 the prior week (October 6–12). Carriers drove the decline: 2,691 carrier registrations this week versus 2,839 last week (-5.2%). “Others” dipped to 147 (-2.6%), while brokers rose modestly to 99 (+5.3%), marking the only category with a week-over-week gain.
The weekday/weekend pattern remained intact. Monday–Friday averaged 538 registrations per day, while Saturday–Sunday averaged 122—about a 77% drop into the weekend, consistent with seasonality in new filings. Midweek peaks occurred on Tuesday (588 total) and Thursday (587). Brokers spiked midweek, with a weekly high of 24 on Wednesday, while “others” peaked at 32 on both Thursday and Friday.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 (Mon) | 412 | 10 | 17 | 439 |
| 2025-10-14 (Tue) | 543 | 15 | 30 | 588 |
| 2025-10-15 (Wed) | 475 | 24 | 18 | 517 |
| 2025-10-16 (Thu) | 537 | 18 | 32 | 587 |
| 2025-10-17 (Fri) | 507 | 22 | 32 | 561 |
| 2025-10-18 (Sat) | 121 | 6 | 11 | 138 |
| 2025-10-19 (Sun) | 96 | 4 | 7 | 107 |
Mix shifted slightly toward intermediaries. Carriers comprised 91.6% of all registrations this week (vs. 92.0% last week), brokers 3.4% (vs. 3.0%), and “others” 5.0% (vs. 4.9%). In the multiweek picture, totals have eased from late August/September levels (3,186–3,405 weekly range) to the current 2,937.
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-28 to 2025-08-03 | 2,947 | 99 | 101 | 3,147 |
| 2025-08-04 to 2025-08-10 | 3,083 | 106 | 115 | 3,304 |
| 2025-08-11 to 2025-08-17 | 3,057 | 104 | 110 | 3,271 |
| 2025-08-18 to 2025-08-24 | 3,181 | 100 | 124 | 3,405 |
| 2025-08-25 to 2025-08-31 | 3,022 | 93 | 120 | 3,235 |
| 2025-09-01 to 2025-09-07 | 2,659 | 92 | 108 | 2,859 |
| 2025-09-08 to 2025-09-14 | 2,986 | 97 | 107 | 3,190 |
| 2025-09-15 to 2025-09-21 | 2,920 | 85 | 127 | 3,132 |
| 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-28 | 3,038 | 98 | 128 | 3,264 |
| 2025-09-29 to 2025-10-05 | 2,981 | 88 | 117 | 3,186 |
| 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-12 | 2,839 | 94 | 151 | 3,084 |
| 2025-10-13 to 2025-10-19 | 2,691 | 99 | 147 | 2,937 |
State-Level Trends
Texas, California, and Florida dominated new filings most days, reflecting their outsized freight economies:
- Mon (10/13): Florida (46) led, followed by California (40) and Texas (38).
- Tue (10/14): Texas (82), California (58), Florida (56).
- Wed (10/15): Texas (61), California (47), Florida (45).
- Thu (10/16): Texas (69), California (49), with Pennsylvania (29) and Georgia (29) tied next.
- Fri (10/17): Texas (73), California (58), Florida (45); New York (30) notable.
- Sat (10/18): Texas (15), California (14), Florida (10).
- Sun (10/19): Texas (11), California (10), Florida (9).
In short, Texas led on six of seven days; Florida’s Monday lead was the exception. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast pockets also popped midweek (e.g., Pennsylvania and New York), aligning with higher weekday filing activity and likely reflecting broader regional network demand.
Market Drivers
Fuel costs edged lower into the week of October 13. The U.S. average on-highway diesel price fell to $3.665/gal on October 13, down 4.6 cents from October 6. Gulf Coast and Midwest prices led declines, easing operating cost pressure for new entrants. While state-level diesel movements varied, the net trend was down, a supportive backdrop for carrier starts even as overall filings softened.
Crude benchmarks also weakened, with a pronounced contango structure signaling ample near-term supply. On October 20–21, Brent hovered near $61 and WTI around $57, near five-month lows, as oversupply concerns outweighed geopolitical risks. Lower crude reinforces the diesel downtrend and could stabilize operating margins if sustained.
Freight demand indicators were mixed but improving off late-summer troughs. The September Cass Transportation Index reported shipments up 2.5% m/m (seasonally adjusted +1.5%) and the Truckload Linehaul Index up 1.7% m/m (+2.6% y/y), suggesting tentative firming in truckload pricing even as volumes remain below year-ago levels. This kind of “price before volume” recovery tends to encourage broker registrations and selective carrier formation.
DAT’s mid-October market commentary pointed to a noticeable week-over-week surge in dry van load volumes alongside evidence of continued small-carrier exits—conditions that can tighten spot capacity and nudge linehaul rates higher at the margin. In that context, it’s not surprising to see broker filings modestly outpace carriers week-over-week, given brokers’ leverage in aggregating freight during uneven recoveries.
Broader logistics momentum cooled, however. The September Logistics Managers’ Index fell to 57.4 (lowest since March), with transportation utilization slipping to the neutral 50 level—an unusually soft read for the early peak season. The mixed demand picture helps explain why carrier registrations continued to decelerate even as fuel eased: the near-term revenue outlook remains unsettled for small fleets.
Policy developments may also be shaping behavior. FMCSA’s updated guidance on the Broker and Freight Forwarder Financial Responsibility Rule (posted October 16) reiterates the January 16, 2026 compliance date and clarifies steps for BMC-84/85 surety and trust providers. The heightened focus on broker compliance likely keeps some prospective intermediaries in “prepare and register now” mode, which could be contributing to the steadiness in broker filings despite softer carrier starts.
Outlook
The near-term setup argues for stability with mild downside risk in total registrations and a continued divergence between carriers and brokers:
- Carriers: With diesel trending lower and linehaul pricing showing incremental improvement in September, carrier filings should find a floor; however, the latest week-over-week dip and a four-week downtrend against late-summer levels suggest formation remains cautious. Expect weekday peaks to persist, but totals may hover below early-September averages until freight volumes materially expand.
- Brokers: Regulatory clarity and a patchy but improving spot environment are supportive. If DAT’s reported mid-October volume bump extends into late October, broker registrations could hold near the current 95–105 weekly band.
- Others: This group typically tracks with overall activity and administrative cadence. Expect modest fluctuations around the current 140–155 weekly range absent policy shocks.
Key watch items through the end of October: fuel momentum (WTI/Brent and EIA diesel prints), confirmation of holiday retail demand (official September retail sales and October high-frequency indicators), and whether the Cass/DAT early Q4 firmness translates into sustained TL volumes. If fuel stays soft and rates hold marginal gains, we would expect carriers to stabilize and brokers to continue edging up through early November, especially as compliance planning before January 2026 remains top of mind for intermediaries.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (diesel prices); Reuters (crude price trends); Cass Information Systems/ACT Research (Cass Transportation Index, September 2025); DAT Freight & Analytics (market updates); Logistics Managers’ Index (September report); FMCSA (Broker and Freight Forwarder Financial Responsibility update); Freight Right Logistics (mid-October ocean/air market context).
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