Introduction
Freight markets tightened further into the week of October 20, 2025 (data as of October 20), even as fuel costs eased and macro signals remained mixed. National load postings fell 4.35% week over week (WoW) while truck postings slipped 1.39% WoW, a modest soft patch likely tied to mid-month seasonality. Yet the broader picture shows demand firming and capacity thinning: loads are up 18.82% month over month (MoM) and 45.55% year over year (YoY), while available trucks rose only 3.59% MoM and are down a steep 26.06% YoY. That imbalance is visible in each segment’s load-to-truck (L/T) ratios, which are up double-digits MoM and more than doubled YoY for reefer and flatbed. Meanwhile, national diesel declined 1.36% WoW and 2.13% MoM, providing near-term relief to operating costs, though prices remain 2.23% above last year’s level. External drivers include a fresh downdraft in crude prices amid oversupply concerns and an early read showing September retail demand excluding autos still inching higher—both relevant to Q4 freight.
Spot Rate Trends
Segment-level pricing moved unevenly, reflecting both seasonal patterns and the lagged response of spot rates to tightening fundamentals:
– Vans: Spot rates rose 1.51% WoW, were flat MoM (0%), and are down 0.99% YoY. The van L/T ratio slipped 4.48% WoW but climbed 12.42% MoM and 87.00% YoY.
– Reefers: Spot rates increased 3.48% WoW, dipped 0.43% MoM, and are down 0.86% YoY. The reefer L/T ratio gained 6.92% WoW, 5.66% MoM, and 118.43% YoY.
– Flatbeds: Spot rates were flat WoW and MoM, and are down 0.78% YoY. The flatbed L/T ratio fell 7.39% WoW but jumped 26.75% MoM and 114.66% YoY.
The disconnect—sharply higher L/T ratios alongside slightly lower YoY spot rates—suggests three forces at play: (1) shippers still leaning on lower contract rates negotiated earlier in the downcycle, which tempers spot uptake; (2) lane mix shifts, where incremental volume accrues to shorter-haul lanes; and (3) cost relief from fuel, which can restrain all-in spot prints even as linehaul tightens.
Market Drivers
– Demand pulse: High-frequency signals point to consumers still spending, albeit cautiously. The Chicago Fed’s advance retail tracker estimates September sales excluding autos rose 0.5% from August (+0.2% after inflation), underscoring resilient core goods demand into the holiday build. That aligns with our MoM jump in national load postings (+18.82%).
– Housing and construction: Flatbed’s MoM L/T ratio surge (+26.75%) lines up with improving builder sentiment. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 37 in October, a six‑month high, and future sales expectations climbed back above 50, hinting at incremental material and project mobilization in late Q4 and early Q1—even if overall activity remains below the neutral line.
– Manufacturing and inventories: Factory conditions remain subdued, which caps upside for industrial freight near term. But with load postings up sharply YoY (+45.55%) against fewer trucks (‑26.06% YoY), the supply side is doing much of the heavy lifting to tighten spot fundamentals as we approach peak retail weeks.
– Weather: Tropical Storm Melissa formed on October 20 in the Caribbean with U.S. impacts currently unlikely; nonetheless, operators moving perishables or imports through Gulf and Southeast corridors should monitor for late-season moisture and wind that could disrupt reefer schedules or port drayage if tracks change.
Fuel & Costs
Operating costs improved again. The U.S. average on‑highway diesel price fell to roughly $3.62 per gallon for the week of October 20, 2025, continuing a multiweek slide as global crude benchmarks softened on oversupply signals. Our dataset shows national fuel down 1.36% WoW and 2.13% MoM, but still up 2.23% YoY—consistent with EIA’s direction of travel. The current pump level reflects the latest EIA weekly read, which lists the national average at $3.620 on October 20.
Crude’s backdrop helps. Oil dropped for a second day on October 21 amid growing surplus concerns and a contango structure signaling abundant near‑term supply; WTI traded near the upper‑$50s, the lowest territory in years. The Department of Energy even moved to opportunistically top up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with a 1‑million‑barrel purchase, a small but symbolic bid that underscores how soft prices have become. The net effect is supportive for trucking margins in Q4 barring a sudden supply shock.
Against that fuel backdrop, the historical surcharge data in our dataset drifted down into October for most segments. Over the last six months, van and reefer surcharges eased from summer highs (e.g., reefer $0.46 in July to $0.44 in October), and flatbed’s surcharge ticked down from $0.51 to $0.49—mirroring diesel’s slide and cushioning carriers while spot linehaul inches higher.
Carrier Outlook
Capacity remains the swing factor. With truck postings down 26.06% YoY versus load postings up 45.55% YoY, carriers hold more negotiating leverage entering the holiday lanes than they did a year ago—yet spot rates have not fully reflected that shift. Expect the following:
– Vans: Solid holiday retail and parcel overflow should keep van L/T ratios elevated into late November. Watch for short‑haul urban replenishment spikes and modest linehaul firming as inventories are staged.
– Reefers: Seasonality plus produce and holiday protein flows, along with any weather‑related tightness, favor continued spot firmness. WoW reefer spot rates jumped 3.48% and the L/T ratio rose 6.92%—momentum that often carries through Thanksgiving.
– Flatbeds: The sharp MoM L/T ratio gain (+26.75%) hints at a floor forming. If housing’s improved expectations translate to site starts and if public infrastructure work accelerates before winter, flatbed could see incremental tightening; pricing, however, may lag until volume broadens.
Risk factors to monitor include late‑season storms (even if U.S. risk from Melissa is currently low), renewed volatility in crude markets, and any retrenchment in consumer outlays. On balance, with fuel easing and capacity thinner, carriers should see improved margins in late Q4—especially those able to pivot to higher‑velocity lanes and adjust fuel schedules quickly.
Spot Rate Table (last 6 months)
| Month (2025) | Van Rate ($/mi) | Van FSC | Van Total | Reefer Rate | Reefer FSC | Reefer Total | Flatbed Rate | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 1.62 | 0.37 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 0.41 | 2.36 | 2.13 | 0.45 | 2.58 |
| June | 1.63 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 1.94 | 0.43 | 2.37 | 2.10 | 0.47 | 2.57 |
| July | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 2.41 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 2.55 |
| August | 1.61 | 0.42 | 2.03 | 1.96 | 0.45 | 2.41 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 2.49 |
| September | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.99 | 0.45 | 2.44 | 2.01 | 0.50 | 2.51 |
| October | 1.67 | 0.41 | 2.08 | 2.04 | 0.44 | 2.48 | 2.04 | 0.49 | 2.53 |
Note: Totals = linehaul spot rate + fuel surcharge; values reflect the dataset’s monthly history through October 2025 and align with a national diesel average near $3.62/gal in the latest week.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update, Oct. 20–21, 2025) ; Reuters energy market coverage (Oct. 21, 2025) ; Reuters on Strategic Petroleum Reserve purchase (Oct. 21, 2025) ; The Wall Street Journal oil price overview (Oct. 16, 2025) ; Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (Oct. 15, 2025) ; NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index press release (Oct. 16, 2025) ; Washington Post weather coverage of Tropical Storm Melissa (Oct. 20, 2025) .
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