Several of the most-watched barometers in U.S. freight are starting to flash “less bad” — and in a few cases, quietly positive. In FreightWaves’ latest State of Freight discussion, analysts pointed to higher lows in spot metrics, stabilization in contract pricing, and continued capacity attrition as evidence the downcycle may have finally found its base. Import flows that held up better than feared this fall, plus only modest disruption from recent weather and port labor flare‑ups, added to the sense that the market’s footing is firmer than it’s felt on the ground.
Why that matters for carriers and brokers: when volumes stop getting worse and capacity keeps bleeding out, pricing power slowly rotates. Even a mild fourth‑quarter seasonal bump can land harder on a smaller truck base, helping linehaul rates hold or grind higher into bid season. If you’ve been running lean and defending yields, this is the moment to stay disciplined on coverage commitments and lane mix, because the next phase of the cycle typically rewards service reliability and selective growth.
There’s also an unusual x‑factor this year: policy. FreightWaves’ panel underscored that a fresh round of tariffs — depending on who’s in the White House and Congress — could jolt near‑term freight demand as importers rush to beat implementation timelines. That stimulus could be front‑loaded, particularly through coastal gateways and transload corridors, even if longer‑term macro effects prove more complicated. For operating teams, that argues for playbooks that can flex quickly: short‑cycle capacity adds (power‑only, drop pools), and pricing rules that recognize tariff‑driven surges can be sharp but brief.
Zooming out, the broader economy is not working against trucking the way it was a year ago — but it isn’t providing a clean tailwind either. S&P Global’s flash PMIs for October showed the United States still outgrowing other major economies, with manufacturing and services both expanding. Under the hood, though, exporters reported weaker orders and firms cited tariff‑related cost pressure, rising inventories and softer profit margins — all dynamics that can mute the freight impulse if retailers and producers stay cautious. Translation for carriers: expect pockets of strength where domestic demand is steady, but be careful extrapolating a national breakout until exports and inventory turns improve.
For truckload specifically, the near‑term setup looks like this: accepted contract freight is steady to slightly better, tenders are no longer sliding, and spot rate troughs are forming higher floors — the classic early phase of a turn. If you’re a carrier, lean into high‑service contractual freight but leave room for targeted spot exposure on headhaul lanes tied to port recovery and retail replenishment. If you’re a broker, protect core awards while using data (seasonality, lead times, dwell) to justify narrower buy‑sell spreads; volatility should rise before it falls as the market tests this new range.
The risks to watch are equally clear: a policy‑induced import pull‑forward that fades quickly; elevated inventories that cap reorders; and a macro picture that’s growing, but at the cost of thinner margins and weak export demand. Those are reasons to stay agile on network balance, keep fuel and accessorials current, and refresh mini‑bids more frequently. The takeaway from the latest readings isn’t “boom,” it’s “bottoming” — and in trucking cycles, that’s when smart operators start to separate.
Sources: FreightWaves, S&P Global Market Intelligence
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