Green shoots are starting to show, but they’re sprouting in uneven ground. In FreightWaves’ latest State of Freight takeaways, panelists pointed to localized capacity strain in Southern California — driven in part by drivers stepping back from the market — and spot firmness in select lanes. Those micro-tightness signals sit alongside a broader market that’s still working through excess capacity and volatile policy risk.
Fuel is the week’s biggest swing factor for cost per mile. The national on‑highway diesel average jumped 9.8 cents to $3.718 per gallon for the week of October 27, with the Midwest seeing the sharpest rise — up 15.1 cents to $3.715. That combination lifts all-in spot costs immediately and narrows contracted margins until surcharges catch up, particularly on longer-haul freight where fuel efficiency and routing discipline matter most.
Safety enforcement is quietly tightening effective capacity. CVSA’s newly released Brake Safety Week results show 15.1% of inspected trucks were placed out of service for brake violations across North America. Beyond the headline rate, inspectors cited “20% defective brakes” as the top out-of-service trigger. For carriers, that’s a maintenance and utilization story: shop time now can prevent road time lost later — and it can be the difference between covering a load and eating a truck-order-not-used fee during busy windows.
On the demand side, the consumer remains steady but cautious. The Conference Board’s October read on U.S. Consumer Confidence edged down to 94.6, with the Expectations Index at 71.5 — still below the 80 threshold that often foreshadows softness ahead. Translation for trucking: near-term volumes can hold up where necessities and replacement cycles dominate, but discretionary goods and big-ticket items are unlikely to spark a broad-based freight surge without a clearer economic catalyst.
How it fits together for fleets and brokers:
- Regional strategy matters. The Southern California narrative — fewer available drivers and on‑again, off‑again spot strength — argues for tighter pricing control on outbound SoCal and adjacent Southwest lanes, with extra attention to turn times and dwell that can erode margin in congested markets.
- Protect your fuel exposure. With diesel bouncing higher, lock in fuel surcharge language on short-cycle bids and revisit MPG assumptions in load planning. Small changes in speed policy and idle control can claw back several cents per mile when pump prices pop.
- Maintenance is capacity. The brake data are a reminder that PM discipline isn’t just about safety scores — it’s rolling capacity insurance. Proactive brake and air system checks will keep assets available in lanes that are beginning to tighten.
- Sales focus: where the freight is. With consumer expectations subdued, lean into sectors that stay resilient late in the year — food and beverage, auto service parts, and home maintenance goods — and be selective on discretionary retail unless service levels are priced to the risk.
The bottom line: FreightWaves’ read that “some signs are pointing higher” rings true — just not everywhere at once. A diesel uptick raises the bar for profitable pricing, safety enforcement trims usable capacity at the margins, and consumers are steady rather than surging. In that mix, the winners will be the carriers and brokers that price regionally, sweat the small operational details, and keep capital dry powder ready for when today’s tight pockets become tomorrow’s broader turn.
Sources: FreightWaves, U.S. Energy Information Administration, The Conference Board, Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance
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