Introduction
U.S. spot freight conditions tightened into the week ending October 27, 2025. National load postings rose 3.0% week over week while available trucks slipped 0.6%, adding lift to load-to-truck ratios (LTRs) in dry van and reefer. On a larger horizon, October’s momentum is notable: loads are up 18.8% month over month and 45.5% year over year, while truck postings are up 3.6% MoM but down 26.1% YoY—evidence that capacity is materially tighter than a year ago. Against this backdrop, fuel firmed week over week but remains lower than a month ago, producing mixed cost signals for carriers and shippers.
Spot Rate Trends
– Dry Van: Demand is edging higher. The van LTR increased 4.5% WoW and 12.4% MoM, and it is up a striking 87.0% YoY. Pricing traction is modest: van spot rates rose 1.0% WoW, were flat MoM, and remain 1.0% below year-ago levels.
– Reefer: Seasonal strength is taking hold. Reefer LTR jumped 11.1% WoW and 5.7% MoM, surging 118.4% YoY. Rates, however, are sticky—unchanged WoW, down 0.4% MoM, and 0.9% below last year.
– Flatbed: Mixed signals. Flatbed LTR eased 5.7% WoW after a strong September/October build, but is still up 26.8% MoM and 114.7% YoY. Rates rose 0.8% WoW, were flat MoM, and sit 0.8% under last year.
Rate indices for October show slight all-in improvements versus late summer as base linehaul inches up while fuel surcharges eased from September. The table below summarizes the last six months of mode averages.
Six-Month Spot Rates, Surcharges and All-In
| Month (2025) | Van Rate | Van FSC | Van Total | Reefer Rate | Reefer FSC | Reefer Total | Flatbed Rate | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | $1.62 | $0.37 | $1.99 | $1.95 | $0.41 | $2.36 | $2.13 | $0.45 | $2.58 |
| June | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| July | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| August | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| September | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $2.01 | $0.50 | $2.51 |
| October | $1.67 | $0.40 | $2.07 | $2.04 | $0.44 | $2.48 | $2.03 | $0.48 | $2.51 |
Market Drivers
– Demand and capacity: National load postings rose 3.0% WoW and 18.8% MoM, while truck postings dipped 0.6% WoW and rose 3.6% MoM—but remain 26.1% below last year. This supply/demand wedge explains why LTRs are surging far faster than rates: spot pricing usually lags utilization when capacity is returning from a multi-year glut.
– Weather risks: Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on October 28 as a Category 5 storm, with the National Hurricane Center warning of catastrophic winds, flooding, and storm surge; the core is moving toward eastern Cuba. While the U.S. mainland impact is expected to be indirect, carriers should anticipate short-term ocean schedule disruptions in the Caribbean basin and possible ripples to Southeast port drayage and Florida distribution as relief cargo and diverted sailings work through networks.
Regional heat map (qualitative, based on seasonal flows and current signals):
– Southeast: Warm to hot. Pre-holiday retail replenishment plus potential Caribbean-related diversions support van demand around Atlanta, Savannah/JAX, and South Florida; reefer demand typically firms into Thanksgiving on produce and grocery lanes.
– Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest: Hot for reefer. Late-season harvest (apples, potatoes, onions) keeps outbound refrigerated volumes elevated; tightening reefer LTRs confirm seasonal strength.
– Gulf Coast/Texas: Warm for flatbed. Industrial activity and projects keep flatbed utilization elevated MoM; cheapest diesel nationally helps margins on energy and manufacturing lanes.
– Northeast and Upper Midwest construction: Cooling. With colder weather encroaching, marginal flatbed demand eases sequentially; this aligns with the weekly dip in flatbed LTR even as MoM remains strong.
– West Coast dry van: Mixed. Competitive pricing persists even as imports have steadied; high West Coast fuel costs crimp all-in margins versus other regions.
Fuel & Costs
Fuel reversed higher week over week. The U.S. average on‑highway diesel price for Monday, October 27, printed at $3.718/gal, up 9.8 cents from the prior week. Regionally, the West Coast remains the high-cost outlier at $4.485, with California at $4.934; the Gulf Coast is lowest at $3.350. East Coast and Midwest averages are $3.723 and $3.715, respectively. These regional spreads materially affect all-in bids and routing decisions.
The dataset’s national fuel indices echo this: fuel rose 2.8% WoW but is down 1.9% MoM, and up 2.5% YoY. The posted fuel price in this report is $3.72/gal as of October 27. That combination—higher WoW, lower MoM—means carriers saw slight pressure on last week’s loads but still benefit versus late September, while shippers will see October surcharges a touch lower than September even as linehaul inches up.
Carrier Outlook
– Dry Van: With LTR up 12.4% MoM and 87.0% YoY but spot rates flat MoM, carriers have room to press for modest increases on headhaul lanes into major retail markets (Southeast, Texas Triangle, SoCal). Prioritize freight with good fuel programs to offset week-over-week diesel gains.
– Reefer: The market is firming seasonally. LTR is up 11.1% WoW and 118.4% YoY, but rates haven’t fully responded. Now is the time to adjust minimums on high-service produce and meat lanes and to pre-negotiate holiday accessorials. Watch Caribbean-linked perishables and Florida distribution in the wake of Hurricane Melissa; brief schedule volatility could tighten capacity around South Florida and the Southeast.
– Flatbed: Despite a 5.7% WoW dip in LTR, the MoM jump (+26.8%) signals a sturdier base than in midsummer. Focus on the Gulf and South-Central corridors where fuel is cheapest and project freight remains active; consider softening quotes in the Upper Midwest/Northeast as seasonal construction ebbs.
– Fuel strategy: The West-to-East cost gap (West Coast $4.485 vs. Gulf $3.350) is wide. Lean into fuel-efficient routing and regional pricing; use lane-based FSC tables so West Coast-origin loads reflect true operating costs.
Bottom line: The market is moving from balance toward mild tightness led by stronger demand and fewer trucks YoY. Vans and reefers show pronounced utilization gains with only nascent price response—classic early-cycle behavior. Flatbed remains choppy week to week but sturdier than earlier in 2025. Expect a firmer November if demand follows its typical holiday arc, with weather as the wildcard and diesel the swing variable.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update); National Hurricane Center; Reuters; NWS/NOAA Climate & Weather resources.
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