On October 30, 2025, an early read on TFI International’s U.S. LTL business pointed to a recovery that’s gathering, but not yet running — a blend of service improvements and lingering cost pressure that keeps the turnaround firmly “in progress.” For shippers, that means a network that’s increasingly dependable but still recalibrating its costs and freight mix.
Why it matters: LTL is the profit engine TFI needs humming in the U.S. industrial cycle. When service stabilizes and density improves, operating ratio follows — but only if yields hold up. The latest industry prints from TFI’s publicly traded rivals reinforce that two-track reality: pricing discipline is back, yet volumes remain soft to down, and that gap is dictating margins.
Consider Old Dominion. On Wednesday, October 29, the carrier delivered a best‑in‑class 74.3% operating ratio despite a 4% year‑over‑year revenue dip, with yields higher even as tons per day fell. That combination — stronger revenue per hundredweight offsetting weaker weight and shipment counts — is the template for profitability while freight demand is still tepid.
Saia’s Thursday results told a similar story from a different altitude: revenue essentially flat at $839.6 million, operating ratio at 85.9% (87.6% adjusted), and per‑share earnings that beat expectations after normalizing for a real‑estate gain. Translation for shippers: the middle tier of national LTL continues to prize yield quality over raw volume growth — which keeps pricing tight even without a demand surge.
XPO rounded out the picture on Thursday with modest top‑line growth in its North American LTL segment and nearly two points of margin expansion year over year, crediting network optimization and AI‑driven routing for efficiency gains. It’s more evidence that carriers are leaning on productivity tools to defend margins while waiting for volumes to normalize.
Put against that backdrop, the takeaways for TFI’s U.S. LTL turnaround are clear. First, service credibility is improving across the space, which narrows the gap between carriers on the metrics that win freight — on‑time performance, damage prevention and reliable pickups. Second, mix matters: carriers are walking away from freight that doesn’t cover its cost to serve, prioritizing yield and terminal density. Finally, with national peers holding the line on price while volumes drift, any TFI gains in U.S. LTL will likely come from productivity — dock and linehaul efficiency, smarter terminal flows and tighter purchased transportation — rather than from a near‑term demand lift.
For shippers, the near‑term implications are straightforward: expect steadier service and continued pricing discipline into bid season, with carriers rewarding density and consistency. Tactical opportunities still exist — especially for freight that fills backhauls or improves lane balance — but blanket discounts are unlikely while the industry’s recovery remains uneven.
The strategic implication for TFI is that a sustainable U.S. LTL turnaround won’t hinge on a single quarter. It will be built load by load through density gains, a cleaner freight mix and incremental OR improvement — the same levers peers are pulling today. As competitors demonstrate, that formula works even in a sluggish market. Executing it consistently is what will ultimately convert “mixed signs” into a durable U.S. LTL profit story.
Sources: FreightWaves, Barron’s, Zacks, Smartkarma, TradingView News, Associated Press
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