Werner Enterprises is positioning for the turn by letting the market do the heavy lifting. Management told investors this week it expects industry capacity to keep thinning — aided in part by stepped-up enforcement on non‑domiciled CDL/B‑1 visa driving and entry‑level driver program rules — and has reset its own truck count outlook lower for 2025 to finish down 2% to flat. The carrier says that attrition, plus disciplined capital and pricing, will set the table for a healthier cycle ahead.
The backdrop: On October 30, Werner reported third‑quarter revenue of $771.5 million, up 3% year over year, but posted a GAAP loss of $0.34 per share (adjusted loss of $0.03). Truckload Transportation Services swung to a $13.8 million operating loss, with insurance and claims up roughly $9 million and start‑up costs from new Dedicated fleets weighing on results. An $18 million wage‑and‑hour settlement accrual and $3.4 million of related legal fees were booked in the quarter. Logistics was the bright spot: revenue rose 12%, and adjusted operating income increased to $4.2 million on higher shipments, including 26% growth from the PowerLink offering.
Strategically, Werner is keeping its powder dry. Net capex guidance for the year is $155 million to $175 million, and the company now plans to end 2025 with fewer tractors than it started, a pivot from earlier growth plans. Guidance implies a cautious fourth quarter: one‑way rate per total mile is expected to range from down 1% to up 1% year over year, while Dedicated revenue per truck per week should be flat to up 1.5%.
Under the hood, the company’s fleet and productivity metrics show the grind of a late‑cycle trough. Average trucks in service were up 1.2% year over year, but TTS revenue per truck per week slipped 0.7% and miles per truck fell 4.1%. Even so, one‑way price per mile notched a modest year‑over‑year increase, marking five straight quarters of improvement. Management also said used equipment values appear stable and could firm as new‑truck builds remain below replacement.
Signals outside Werner point to a market that’s stabilizing unevenly rather than roaring back. In brokerage, C.H. Robinson beat third‑quarter earnings expectations, with management and analysts crediting AI‑driven productivity for margin gains — a reminder that in a slow freight tape, cost discipline and automation can still move the needle.
In asset‑based LTL, XPO delivered year‑over‑year margin expansion and an 82.7% adjusted operating ratio in North America, outperforming seasonality as yield improved for an 11th straight quarter. That kind of execution at the “industrial economy” end of trucking underscores how mix and densification can offset soft tonnage.
Cross‑border conglomerate TFI International offered a more muted read‑through on demand — revenue fell 10% year over year and adjusted EPS declined — but still increased its dividend 4% and trimmed capex, signaling confidence in cash generation while acknowledging a slow freight backdrop.
Even among asset‑light truckload bellwethers, there are hints of a turn. Landstar reported its first sequential quarter‑over‑quarter increase in BCO truck count since early 2022, a small but telling marker that capacity — and owner‑operator sentiment — may be stabilizing off the bottom.
Why it matters for carriers and shippers: Werner’s pullback in tractor count and its emphasis on Dedicated growth reflect a broader industry recalibration. Carriers with the balance sheet to outwait the downturn are using this period to harden cost structures and protect price integrity. If exits continue while OEM builds and lender forbearance recede, the floor under contract rates should firm during 2025 bid cycles — but the pace will likely be measured and lane‑specific rather than uniform. For shippers, that argues for locking in core lanes at rational terms now and budgeting for pockets of tightness — particularly around border‑adjacent markets and regulatory hot spots — even if national indicators remain lukewarm.
Bottom line: Werner is choosing scarcity over sprawl as the market resets. With self‑help savings tracking toward $45 million this year and capacity attrition doing some of the work, the carrier is trying to emerge from the trough with a tighter network, healthier mix and the leverage to push rates when demand finally catches up. Peers’ prints this week — stronger LTL margins, broker efficiency gains, and a hint of owner‑operator stabilization — suggest that while the turn isn’t universal, the foundation for a slow‑burn recovery is taking shape.
Sources: FreightWaves, Werner Enterprises Investor Relations, Reuters, Barron’s, XPO Newsroom, TFI International, GlobeNewswire (Landstar)
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