Freight market signals are increasingly pointing toward a goods-led slowdown in the U.S. economy. For truckers, the telltales are showing up first on the oceans and factory floors, then moving inland: softer export demand from Asia, wobblier U.S. manufacturing readings, and only tactical, short-lived bumps in ocean spot pricing. Together, they translate into a thinner pipeline of import-driven freight for drayage, intermodal and truckload networks as we head into November.
Overseas, carriers pushed through end‑of‑month general rate increases, lifting spot prices off the floor but not changing the underlying demand picture. Xeneta’s weekly update on October 31 showed market‑average spot rates at $2,145 per FEU from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast and $3,046 to the East Coast—sideways week over week and still far below late‑2024 levels. Xeneta flagged that any early‑November uptick is more about capacity management than a real demand turn.
Drewry’s World Container Index told a similar story: the composite benchmark rose 4% in the week to October 30 to $1,822 per 40‑foot box, with trans‑Pacific lanes up mid‑single digits. Analysts expect those gains to be brief as supply–demand fundamentals remain weak. For trucking, that suggests only intermittent “pulse” weeks of boxes at the ports rather than a sustained import wave.
The macro backdrop isn’t doing goods producers any favors. China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped again in October—to 49.0—marking a seventh straight month of contraction as new export orders dried up. That points to thinner U.S. import flows in the next 4–8 weeks, timing that matters for December drayage and early‑January truckload volumes.
At home, the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) improved to 43.8 in October but recorded its 23rd consecutive sub‑50 reading—still contractionary for factory activity that feeds a disproportionate share of truck freight (machinery, metals, components). The rebound in new orders is welcome, but a sub‑50 print implies muted freight creation through the industrial channel.
Some shippers hoped last week’s U.S.–China tariff de‑escalation would quickly revive trade. Markets may get modest sentiment relief, but analysts and policymakers are signaling caution: despite a reduction in the average tariff burden and a one‑year truce on certain measures, China’s factory PMI remained in contraction and U.S. importers had already front‑loaded much of their seasonal demand. That combination limits near‑term upside for ocean volumes cascading to trucks.
Operating costs remain a swing factor for fleets. Diesel is easing compared to a month ago, but it’s still a significant weekly expense line: AAA pegs the national average diesel price at $3.684 per gallon as of November 2. Meanwhile, EIA’s latest weekly petroleum report showed a 3.4‑million‑barrel draw in distillate stocks, keeping inventories below five‑year norms—one reason diesel could stay sticky even if freight demand is soft.
What it means for carriers and brokers:
- Expect choppy port volumes, not a steady surge. Blank sailings and GRIs can bunch arrivals; plan driver and chassis allocation for short windows of elevated demand rather than a continuous peak.
- Industrial freight is still the missing piece. With regional manufacturing gauges stuck below 50, keep bids conservative on heavy‑industrial lanes and watch for last‑minute cancelations as plants trim output.
- Mind the diesel risk. Lock in fuel programs where possible and revisit surcharge triggers; tight distillate inventories can lift rack prices quickly even if crude wobbles.
- Don’t over‑read the tariff truce. Policy headlines can nudge sentiment, but near‑term U.S. import demand looks capped by earlier front‑loading and weak export orders out of Asia. Build scenarios that assume only modest improvement in inbound boxes through December.
Bottom line for the trucking community: the data still argue for prudence. Ocean pricing tactics and policy optics may create brief opportunities, but the goods pipeline is running cooler. Protect margins with disciplined pricing on volatile port‑related freight, keep an eye on fuel, and be ready to pivot capacity quickly as short‑lived demand pockets pop up and fade.
Sources: FreightWaves, Xeneta, Drewry, Associated Press, Reuters, TradingEconomics, AAA, Rigzone
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