ACT Research’s latest read of the U.S. truckload cycle points to a market finally bleeding off excess capacity after two bruising years of deflationary pricing. That retrenchment—visible in fewer tractors being built and a smaller for-hire footprint—sets the stage for a tighter balance between trucks and loads into peak season and early 2026. The question now is how quickly that tightening translates into pricing power for carriers.
Two fresh developments sharpen the backdrop. First, spot pricing momentum continued in October. DAT Freight & Analytics reported that spot truckload rates extended their recent uptrend last month and, critically, the spread between spot and contract narrowed to its smallest since March 2022—an early tell that capacity is no longer as loose as it was this summer. For carriers, a shrinking spot–contract gap often precedes firmer bid cycles; for shippers, it’s a cue that the era of one‑way pricing leverage is fading.
Second, cost to add or replace capacity just went up. New U.S. tariffs on imported medium- and heavy‑duty trucks and buses took effect on Saturday, November 1. Multiple international outlets confirmed the start date, and trade analysts expect the policy to lift equipment and parts costs, especially for models or components sourced outside North America. The timing matters: fleets facing higher acquisition prices are more likely to extend trade cycles, which slows replacement and tends to keep marginal equipment parked—both of which accelerate the supply correction ACT has been tracking.
That policy shift lands just as ACT has underscored a downshift in production and investment across the heavy‑duty complex. Fewer new tractors coming to market, combined with weaker carrier profitability, typically push operators to sweat assets longer and pare fleets to core lanes and customers. The practical effect: fewer available trucks at the edges of networks and more selective acceptance of lower‑margin freight.
For shippers, these crosscurrents signal a transition phase rather than a sudden snap‑back. October’s steadier spot market suggests the floor under rates is firming, but contract repricing historically lags by quarters, not weeks. Expect pockets of tightness first—reefer around holiday surges, certain flatbed corridors tied to public‑works projects—before broad strength filters into annual bids. The latest October read from DAT reinforces that pattern: volumes built seasonally and pricing crept higher without a disorderly spike.
For carriers, the tariff overlay alters capital planning. If imported power units, gliders, or key components carry higher landed costs, total cost of ownership rises and payback periods extend. That makes used equipment relatively more attractive and nudges fleets to defer add‑capacity orders—both outcomes that pull forward the supply‑side reset ACT has highlighted. Near term, that favors disciplined operators with newer iron and strong maintenance programs; longer term, it raises the bar for re‑entry when freight finally accelerates.
One near‑term tell to watch: tender stability versus mini‑surges on the spot side. If the DAT‑flagged narrowing in spot/contract spreads persists into November and December, the market will be signaling that ACT’s capacity contraction is beginning to bite. That’s typically when routing‑guide compliance slips at the margin, accessorials creep, and mini‑bids resurface to patch coverage.
Procurement takeaway: If you’re a shipper with flexible timing, lean into multi‑round bids while the window is still open, but structure awards with clear surge clauses and indexation so that you’re not caught flat‑footed if capacity tightens abruptly. Carrier takeaway: Reserve capital for targeted fleet refresh rather than expansion, prioritize lanes with density and round‑trip balance, and be ready to pivot quickly if spot strength broadens—especially with higher equipment costs now locked in by tariff.
Bottom line: ACT Research’s message that capacity is shrinking is now intersecting with two timely catalysts—tariffs that raise the hurdle for new equipment and spot rates that are quietly grinding higher. Together, they argue for a more balanced market into 2026, with pricing risk migrating from shippers back toward carriers if demand merely holds its ground.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, Japan Times, DAT Freight & Analytics
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