High-frequency freight indicators are again warning that the U.S. goods economy is in contraction, even as headline growth remains supported by services. A new analysis argues the core flow of physical goods through trucking, intermodal and ocean networks has cooled to recessionary levels — a message that should put carriers on alert heading into the holiday stretch. ([]())
The latest global factory readings released today reinforce that caution. Eurozone manufacturing flatlined in October with the region’s PMI stuck at 50.0, while Germany and France remained in contraction — a backdrop that typically translates into softer U.S.-bound export demand and fewer backhaul opportunities for domestic truckers tied to ports and transload. In Asia, South Korea’s PMI slipped back below 50 and China’s private survey eased, signaling a slower pace of orders. For U.S. carriers that depend on import-driven volumes (drayage, transload, and rail intermodal), that combination points to a thinner pipeline of freight in the near term.
Stateside, two closely watched bellwethers land today: S&P Global’s final U.S. manufacturing PMI for October (9:45 a.m. ET) and ISM’s Manufacturing PMI (10:00 a.m. ET). Consensus expects the ISM gauge to remain below 50 — the line between expansion and contraction — keeping the goods side under pressure. Trucking executives should focus on three ISM subcomponents that presage freight flows: new orders (demand pipeline), inventories (restocking cycles), and prices paid (fuel and input cost pass-through).
Amid the slump, the LTL market is showing how disciplined operators can grind out gains. XPO’s third-quarter report, released Friday, highlighted higher yield and a better operating ratio in its North American LTL business despite year-over-year declines in shipments and tonnage. That mix — less freight but better pricing and service — is what more carriers may need to emulate as shippers fragment orders and push for reliability over raw volume. For truckload carriers, the takeaway is to protect contract share, target service-sensitive verticals, and avoid overexposure to volatile spot lanes until demand proves out.
What to watch next: Today’s PMI prints will set the tone for November bid cycles and mini-bids; a sub‑50 ISM would argue for continued caution on network expansion and fleet utilization. And on Thursday, November 6, the National Retail Federation will publish its 2025 holiday sales forecast — a key barometer for fourth‑quarter freight demand across general merchandise, parcel-heavy e‑commerce and replenishment flows.
Bottom line for trucking leaders: Treat the coming weeks as a freight quality game, not a volume chase. Tighten routing guides, lean into high‑service accounts, and index your bid strategy to what the PMIs say about new orders and inventories. If the goods economy is indeed in a rolling recession, the winners will be the carriers that price precisely, protect service, and keep powder dry for the eventual turn.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, Transport Topics, Investing.com, National Retail Federation
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