Introduction
Between October 27 and November 2, 2025, the USDOT logged 3,075 new registrations across carriers, brokers, and other registrants. This analysis unpacks week-over-week changes by segment, highlights the state-level hot spots each day, and situates the numbers in current freight-market conditions as of November 4, 2025.
Weekly Overview
The week ending November 2 registered a total of 3,075 new USDOT entities, up 2.5% from 2,999 the prior week. By segment (per weekly roll-up), carriers rose to 2,845 (+1.8% w/w), brokers decreased to 90 (-8.2% w/w), and “others” increased to 140 (+32.1% w/w). Carriers again dominated the mix at roughly 92.5% of all registrations, with brokers at 2.9% and others at 4.6%. The total of 3,075 sits modestly above the trailing four-week average (~3,007), signaling a steady—if not exuberant—pipeline of new entrants. Note: the roll-up totals align with the daily totals for the week; a minor reclassification between “carriers” and “others” in the weekly history leaves the grand total unchanged at 3,075.
Daily volumes followed a familiar intra-week pattern: early-week strength followed by a weekend lull. Monday (Oct 27) led with 641 registrations, while Saturday (Nov 1) posted 125 and Sunday (Nov 2) 194. That cadence is consistent with filing behaviors and back-office processing cycles, rather than underlying demand alone.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 (Mon) | 597 | 18 | 26 | 641 |
| 2025-10-28 (Tue) | 547 | 13 | 26 | 586 |
| 2025-10-29 (Wed) | 553 | 20 | 29 | 602 |
| 2025-10-30 (Thu) | 518 | 17 | 26 | 561 |
| 2025-10-31 (Fri) | 339 | 11 | 16 | 366 |
| 2025-11-01 (Sat) | 113 | 7 | 5 | 125 |
| 2025-11-02 (Sun) | 174 | 4 | 16 | 194 |
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-28 | 3,040 | 92 | 111 | 3,243 |
| 2025-09-29 to 2025-10-05 | 2,949 | 88 | 125 | 3,162 |
| 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-12 | 2,834 | 90 | 134 | 3,058 |
| 2025-10-13 to 2025-10-19 | 2,671 | 106 | 120 | 2,897 |
| 2025-10-20 to 2025-10-26 | 2,795 | 98 | 106 | 2,999 |
| 2025-10-27 to 2025-11-02 | 2,845 | 90 | 140 | 3,075 |
What stands out week-over-week is the continued resilience of carrier formations despite a soft macro freight tape. Broker formations, by contrast, have eased for three straight weeks (106 → 98 → 90), consistent with a marketplace still working through rate normalization and elevated competition.
State-Level Trends
Top state concentrations underscore where entrepreneurial trucking activity remains most vibrant:
– 2025-10-27 (Mon): TX 93, CA 54, FL 50, GA 34. Texas led decisively to start the week.
– 2025-10-28 (Tue): TX 77, FL 56, CA 51, NY 31. Florida edged California for second while New York cracked the top four.
– 2025-10-29 (Wed): TX 78, CA 67, FL 38, GA 31. The Sun Belt (TX, CA, FL, GA) dominated mid-week activity.
– 2025-10-30 (Thu): TX 70, CA 60, FL 51; NJ/PA/GA/NY clustered at 27–28. The Northeast showed breadth behind the big three.
– 2025-10-31 (Fri): TX 45, FL 35, CA 30, NY 26. Pre-weekend filings held strongest in Texas and Florida.
– 2025-11-01 (Sat): FL 14, TX 12, CA 12 (tie), PA 8. Weekend activity was diffuse; Florida remained slightly elevated.
– 2025-11-02 (Sun): CA 21, PA 16, FL 15, OH 12. California closed the week on top, with Pennsylvania and Ohio notable for late-week surges.
Across the week, Texas, California, and Florida consistently ranked at or near the top, reflecting large freight economies, dense shipper bases, and robust intrastate and interstate opportunities. Secondary momentum from Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Ohio added depth—particularly from Thursday through Sunday.
Market Drivers
– Manufacturing demand tone: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October printed 48.7 (released Nov. 1–4 timing), pointing to continued contraction in factory activity. New orders remained in contraction and production slipped back below 50, a backdrop that typically tempers for-hire expansion but still allows localized micro-cycles (e.g., food and transport equipment) to support selective carrier formation.
– Transportation activity and logistics pulse: The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) has eased in recent readings, with industry commentary in late October highlighting slower transportation utilization and a shift toward warehousing optimization. This moderation is consistent with steady—but not booming—new USDOT formations; firms are prioritizing efficiency and mix, not broad-based capacity growth.
– Fuel costs: Diesel moved higher during the week of October 27, with the national on‑highway average at $3.718/gal (+9.8 cents w/w). While not extreme by historical standards, an upward tick in fuel raises breakeven thresholds for would-be entrants and can slow marginal formation—particularly among single‑truck startups with thin cash cushions.
– Spot market signals: Spot activity into late October showed signs of seasonal firming (reefer and, to a lesser extent, van), helping keep carrier formation stable even as the broader environment remains mixed. Load posts rose while truck posts fell in week 43 (Oct 19–25), foreshadowing a tighter tone ahead of the holiday push.
– Parcel and retail indicators: Large-parcel updates in the past week reinforce the theme of selective strength. UPS’s Q3 results emphasized “revenue quality” over volume, with improved yields despite lower pieces—an echo of broader logistics’ focus on margin discipline vs. raw throughput. Holiday sales outlooks still imply growth but at a slightly cooler pace than last year, supporting steady trucking demand without a sharp spike in new formations.
Taken together, these drivers portray a market in “optimization mode”: enough seasonal freight and service diversification to encourage carrier entries in core states, but persistent headwinds (manufacturing contraction, cost vigilance, tariff uncertainty) that restrain broker expansion and keep formation growth measured rather than explosive.
Outlook
Looking through mid‑November, our base case is stability-to-slight‑growth in new USDOT registrations:
– Carriers: Expect modest momentum as seasonal food and holiday retail flows persist, especially in California, Texas, and Florida corridors. If diesel remains range‑bound and reefer rates hold a holiday premium, single‑truck and small fleets should continue to enter at a measured pace. Any renewed rise in fuel would disproportionately weigh on the smallest entrants.
– Brokers: The three‑week slide in broker formations likely reflects compressed gross margins and stiff competition for contract freight. Unless spot‑to‑contract spreads widen materially, we anticipate broker registrations to hover near current levels in the short run. The latest manufacturing and logistics readings do not yet argue for a sharp upswing.
– Others: The jump this week suggests some catch-up or late‑month administrative filings. Expect normalization toward the recent average, but with upside if shippers and asset‑light providers add credentials ahead of peak holiday operations.
Key watch items over the next two weeks include: updated diesel averages, any acceleration in reefer/retail-driven spot demand, and fresh macro prints that might alter the demand outlook (e.g., inventory positions and consumer spending trajectories). For now, the registration tape is consistent with a freight market that’s healing slowly, rewarding micro‑niches and operational discipline more than broad‑based expansion.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (On-Highway Diesel Prices); Institute for Supply Management (October 2025 Manufacturing PMI); Logistics Managers’ Index/ITS Logistics releases; DAT Freight & Analytics and AJOT week-of-Oct. 27 spot updates; MarketWatch coverage of UPS Q3 2025 earnings; NSGA summary of 2025 holiday retail forecasts.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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