ACT Research’s latest read on the U.S. truckload market — highlighted by FreightWaves — points to a capacity base that’s shrinking rather than expanding into peak retail season. That matters because fewer seated trucks against even modest freight growth flips pricing power back toward carriers, first on the spot board and then into contract bid cycles. For fleets that survived the long downturn, the question now is how fast that rebalancing unfolds and what could accelerate it.
Two fresh developments suggest the capacity correction could deepen before it eases. First, state and federal enforcement of English language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers has removed more than 7,000 truckers from service since late June, according to new tallies reported this week. The stepped-up enforcement has disproportionately affected immigrant driver communities and is reducing available labor in certain regional markets — particularly where small carriers and owner-operators dominate spot freight. While aimed at safety, the near-term operational effect is tighter driver supply and added recruiting friction for carriers.
Second, industry analysts tracking the same ACT data set say capacity pressure isn’t only about drivers — it’s also about iron. A fresh market brief this week notes tractor builds have fallen below replacement levels, with ACT’s for-hire indicators pointing to a fleet that cannot be maintained at current production rates. That dynamic slows the ability of carriers to re-expand even if demand firms, extending the time it takes for routing guides and contract rates to normalize.
Beyond the supply side, sentiment on the demand and operating environment remains cautious. A newly released “critical issues” survey presented at ATA’s annual meeting underscores that the economy remains the top concern across the industry, with driver pay still the leading issue among drivers themselves. Both findings reinforce the likelihood that carriers will be selective on adding seats and lanes until pricing visibly improves — another subtle constraint on near‑term capacity.
There are also mixed signals on broader freight flows. A supply chain roundup published Monday cites early signs of stabilization in truckload and LTL after a slow year, while trade frictions and shifting sourcing continue to complicate the outlook for import-heavy corridors that feed domestic trucking. If importers continue to front‑load goods to dodge tariff risk, pockets of seasonal tightness could flare even as overall tonnage stays choppy.
What it means for fleets and shippers now: If ACT’s thesis holds and capacity keeps grinding lower, expect the rebalancing to first surface in markets with concentrated compliance enforcement and strong cross‑border or port‑driven flows. Carriers that can keep drivers qualified, equipment utilization high, and maintenance spend disciplined should find firmer footing as routing‑guide performance improves. Shippers, meanwhile, should prepare for gradual rate drift higher into early 2026, with elevated risk of short, sharp tightness around compliance checkpoints, weather events and any renewed tariff pulls.
Bottom line: The market doesn’t need a demand boom to feel tighter — it needs a little less supply. ACT’s indicators say that’s already happening, and fresh compliance actions are quietly turning the screw.
Sources: FreightWaves, India Today, The Times of India, The Economic Times, Truck News, J.M. Rodgers
This article was prepared exclusively for TruckStopInsider.com. Republishing is permitted only with proper credit and a link back to the original source.
