Introduction
Shippers enter early November with freight fundamentals that are gradually improving on a year-over-year basis but mixed in the near term. As of November 3, 2025, van, reefer, and flatbed markets all show sharply higher load-to-truck ratios versus a year ago (+48.6%, +93.0%, and +72.5%, respectively), even as week-to-week movements remain choppy. Nationally, load postings fell 4.0% week over week while truck postings fell by a steeper 5.4%, a combination that typically nudges spot capacity tighter; compared with last year, loads are up 14.1% and trucks are down 29.1%, reinforcing the structural tightening theme. Fuel sits at $3.75/gal nationally, up 6.5% year over year and up 1.9% month over month, modestly pressuring operating costs. Recent macro news points to a still-cooling industrial economy, softer crude oil, and an active West Coast storm track—each shaping price discovery in November’s spot market. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 48.7 (contraction), underscoring tepid industrial freight, while oil eased this week on oversupply concerns following OPEC+ signaling, a tailwind for diesel if sustained. Meanwhile, a sequence of atmospheric rivers is forecast to hit the Pacific Coast, a temporary risk to service and capacity.
Spot Rate Trends
Across equipment types, early November spot prices are steady to slightly firmer versus October on a base-rate basis, with fuel surcharges edging up alongside diesel:
– Vans: The van spot rate index is up 1.0% month over month and flat year over year; week over week it dipped 0.5%. In the monthly history, the linehaul component rose to $1.68/mile in November from $1.67 in October, while the surcharge ticked to $0.41 from $0.40, bringing the all-in to $2.09/mile.
– Reefers: Reefer spot rates are up 2.2% month over month and 1.3% year over year, despite a 0.8% week-over-week slip. In the history, November holds at $2.04 linehaul with a surcharge up to $0.45, lifting the all-in to $2.49/mile.
– Flatbeds: Flatbed spot rates rose 1.6% month over month and 1.2% year over year, with a 0.8% week-over-week dip. History shows a firmer November linehaul at $2.07 (from $2.02) and a steady $0.49 surcharge for an all-in $2.56/mile.
Load-to-truck ratios echo this—strong versus 2024 but uneven in the short run. Vans are +6.6% w/w, -6.1% m/m, +48.6% y/y; reefers are -7.4% w/w, +3.1% m/m, +93.0% y/y; flatbeds are +1.2% w/w, -4.8% m/m, +72.5% y/y. Nationally, the supply-demand mix softened m/m (loads -0.8% vs trucks +3.5%) but is much tighter y/y (loads +14.1% vs trucks -29.1%).
Market Drivers
Industrial demand: October’s ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7 confirms ongoing contraction in factory activity. New orders and production contracted, while employment remained soft. For freight, that translates into lackluster metals, machinery, and components volumes—headwinds most visible in van and flatbed industrial lanes—though food/beverage and transportation equipment were relative bright spots.
Consumer and retail: The holiday build is underway, but most retail trackers point to a modest 2025 season versus 2024. The National Retail Federation is slated to release its 2025 holiday forecast on Thursday, November 6; until then, retailers are leaning on promotions and earlier pulls to manage inventories. For truckload, that implies a steady, not surging, Q4 uplift—supportive for dry van and select reefer flows but unlikely to trigger broad capacity shock.
Energy prices: Oil eased this week as markets priced an OPEC+ pause in output hikes next quarter amid oversupply concerns, keeping crude near the low-$60s WTI and mid-$60s Brent. If sustained, that backdrop typically filters into diesel with a lag, capping fuel-surcharge escalation and helping carriers’ variable costs into late November.
Weather and logistics: Multiple atmospheric rivers are forecast to impact Oregon and Northern California this week, with AR3/AR4 conditions possible and several inches of precipitation in coastal ranges and the Sierra. Expect intermittent port drayage delays, tighter regional capacity, and schedule volatility on I‑5 and feeder corridors, particularly for reefers and time-sensitive retail freight.
Fuel & Costs
Diesel averaged $3.75/gal nationally on November 3, 2025. The national fuel line in the dataset shows +0.8% week over week, +1.9% month over month, and +6.5% year over year. These changes are visible in the history via small, sequential surcharge upticks from October to November (van $0.40→$0.41; reefer $0.44→$0.45; flatbed steady at $0.49). Broader benchmarks corroborate a generally stable-to-soft fuels backdrop through late October, with EIA’s weekly on-highway diesel series oscillating around the mid‑$3.60s to $3.70s before the November roll.
On the gasoline side—relevant to consumer travel patterns feeding retail freight—AAA reported national averages near $3.03 as of October 30, reflecting softer crude and seasonally lower demand. While gasoline is not diesel, the same upstream crude dynamics and slack seasonality have tended to restrain refined product prices into early November.
Carrier Outlook
– Vans: Near-term rates are edging up month over month (+1.0%), but weekly softness (‑0.5%) suggests continued spot volatility until peak retail weeks fully materialize. The sizable year-over-year tightening in van L/T ratios (+48.6%) against national truck postings down 29.1% y/y indicates the supply side remains thinner than in 2024, a supportive backdrop for Q4 pricing.
– Reefers: Despite a 7.4% weekly pullback in L/T, reefer remains the relative winner year over year: ratios are up 93.0% and rates +1.3% y/y. Holiday perishables and flu-season pharmaceuticals should underpin lanes, though West Coast weather could cause episodic dislocation and repositioning needs.
– Flatbeds: Industrial softness (PMI sub‑50) tempers upside, yet the L/T ratio is still 72.5% higher year over year with rates modestly above 2024. Expect selective strength tied to construction completions and transportation equipment, but wide regional dispersion.
Strategically, brokers and shippers should plan for:
– Temporary West Coast disruption premiums if AR events intensify, with reroutes and accessorials more common mid‑week.
– A steady but unspectacular holiday demand pulse; NRF’s November 6 forecast will clarify sales ranges and thus late‑November tender volumes.
– Incremental cost relief if crude’s slide persists; watch diesel prints over the next two EIA releases for confirmation before resetting FSC tables.
Spot Rates, Surcharges, and All‑In (last 6 months)
| Month (2025) | Van Linehaul | Van FSC | Van All‑In | Reefer Linehaul | Reefer FSC | Reefer All‑In | Flatbed Linehaul | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed All‑In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| July | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| August | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| September | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $2.01 | $0.50 | $2.51 |
| October | $1.67 | $0.40 | $2.07 | $2.04 | $0.44 | $2.48 | $2.02 | $0.49 | $2.51 |
| November | $1.68 | $0.41 | $2.09 | $2.04 | $0.45 | $2.49 | $2.07 | $0.49 | $2.56 |
Bottom line: Macro forces point to a steady but not overheated peak. Manufacturing remains a drag, retail peak should be serviceable but measured, crude softness is a mild tailwind for costs, and West Coast storms are the main near-term risk factor for network reliability. In that context, modest MoM rate gains alongside much tighter YoY capacity look sustainable into late November, with weather-driven micro‑tightness likely to create the most actionable opportunities (or risks) for spot participants.
Sources Consulted: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI (Nov. 3, 2025); Reuters Energy/OPEC+ oil prices (Nov. 4, 2025); U.S. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (late Oct. 2025); AAA Fuel Commentary (Oct. 30, 2025); CW3E Atmospheric River Outlook (Nov. 3, 2025); National Retail Federation holiday outlook update (Nov. 2025).
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