U.S. Diesel Prices Nudge Higher; Midwest Leads Gains While Rockies Slip
The national average price of on-highway diesel rose to $3.753 per gallon for the week of November 3, 2025, up 3.5 cents from the prior week. Most regions posted modest increases, led by the Midwest, while the Rocky Mountain region edged lower. The move comes amid fresh OPEC+ signals that steadied crude and an EIA report showing a late-October draw in U.S. distillate stocks, both of which lent mild support to diesel.
Price Analysis: Week-over-Week Change
National average diesel climbed from $3.718 (week of Oct. 27) to $3.753 (week of Nov. 3), a 0.9% increase. Regionally, price action was mixed but generally higher, with the Midwest seeing the largest weekly jump and the Rockies the lone decliner.
Key takeaways:
- National: +$0.035 (+0.9%) to $3.753/gal
- East: +$0.031 (+0.8%) to $3.754/gal
- Midwest: +$0.058 (+1.6%) to $3.773/gal
- Gulf: +$0.024 (+0.7%) to $3.374/gal
- Rocky Mountain: -$0.010 (-0.3%) to $3.676/gal
- West: +$0.014 (+0.3%) to $4.499/gal
The West remains the highest-priced market at $4.499/gal, while the Gulf Coast retains the lowest regional average at $3.374/gal. The Midwest’s outperformance likely reflects tighter regional diesel balances and refinery run patterns into late October, while the Rockies’ slight dip suggests localized supply-demand relief.
Regional Comparison
- East (PADD 1): $3.754/gal; up 3.1 cents w/w. Incremental gains as coastal diesel inventories sit on the low side seasonally heading into heating oil demand.
- Midwest (PADD 2): $3.773/gal; up 5.8 cents w/w. Largest weekly increase among regions, consistent with recent EIA data showing declines in distillate stocks and softer output late October.
- Gulf (PADD 3): $3.374/gal; up 2.4 cents w/w. Still the lowest-cost diesel due to concentration of refining capacity despite seasonal maintenance.
- Rocky Mountain (PADD 4): $3.676/gal; down 1.0 cent w/w. The only region to fall, pointing to localized supply stability versus other districts.
- West (PADD 5): $4.499/gal; up 1.4 cents w/w. Prices remain elevated relative to the nation, reflecting structural constraints and higher compliance costs.
Market Drivers (News-Based)
- OPEC+ signals: On November 2–3, OPEC+ affirmed a modest output increase of 137,000 bpd for December and indicated it will pause further hikes in Q1 2026, moves that steadied crude on Monday, November 3. Brent and WTI posted small gains as the market reassessed near-term supply risks. These signals tend to filter into refined product prices, including diesel.
- U.S. distillate inventories tightened: The EIA’s October 29 Weekly Petroleum report (data for week ending Oct. 24) showed distillate stocks down 3.4 million barrels and roughly 8% below the five-year average, with distillate production slipping week over week—conditions that can support diesel prices into early November.
- Geopolitics and sanctions backdrop: Reuters reported that a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Tuapse oil port over the weekend and new U.S./EU sanctions on Russian oil producers added a layer of supply risk that nudged crude higher on Nov. 3, indirectly supporting diesel.
Outlook for Truckers
Near term, diesel looks biased slightly upward or rangebound as markets digest OPEC+’s cautious stance and the EIA’s late-October distillate draws. Seasonal factors—colder weather and heating-oil demand—often tighten middle-distillate balances into November and December. Watch the Midwest, which just posted the biggest week-over-week increase, and the West, where structurally higher prices are likely to persist. If distillate production and inventories remain below year-ago levels, price relief may be gradual; conversely, any improvement in refinery runs or a pullback in crude could cap gains.
Bottom line: Plan fuel budgets around modestly higher—but still historically moderate—diesel prices, shop regional spreads when routing (Gulf remains cheapest), and monitor weekly EIA updates for signs that distillate stocks are rebuilding heading into the holidays.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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Source of diesel data is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
