Ocean freight is getting a short reprieve from the policy shocks that defined much of 2025. A fresh pause in U.S.–China port fees, coupled with targeted tariff rollbacks, has eased immediate cost risk on the water. But the stability is fragile, and how it ripples into port drayage, inland trucking, and intermodal flows will depend on how carriers manage capacity and how Washington’s shutdown politics play out in the coming days.
First, the policy headline: Washington will suspend for one year the punitive U.S. port fees on Chinese-linked vessels beginning November 10, part of a broader bid to restart dialogue with Beijing. The move, which also pauses 100% tariffs on Chinese port cranes and intermodal truck chassis, takes several billion dollars of potential costs off carrier balance sheets and removes a near-term trigger for shipper surcharges. Analysts put the annualized value of the fee exposure at roughly $3.2 billion, underscoring why carriers and U.S. importers had braced for knock-on costs if the fees stuck.
Rates reflect that uneasy calm. Freightos’ weekly update shows Asia–U.S. West Coast spot prices edging down 1% to $1,999 per FEU, while Asia–U.S. East Coast rose 4% to $3,628. Carriers did push early-month general rate increases (GRIs), but by midweek some were already discounting select sailings — a sign demand remains thin and pricing power is limited outside of named-vessel windows. For trucking networks, that points to steadier, not surging, container flow through November.
Forward-looking signals from forwarders back this up. A U.S.-based customs broker reports that the post–Nov. 1 GRI bump was short-lived, with another GRI slated for November 15 even as blank sailings from late October into early November continue to weigh on schedule reliability. On the ground, West Coast rollovers are expected to ease in weeks 45–46, with space normalizing from week 47. Expect longer vessel waits and elevated terminal dwell on the USWC; on the USEC, congestion is moderate but building, driven more by rail bottlenecks than by ships.
Policy risk hasn’t vanished. The federal shutdown reached Day 37 on November 6, and while U.S. Customs and Border Protection says cargo processing, exams, and liquidations continue as normal, refunds (including drawback) are not being issued — a cash-flow pinch for importers that can cascade to trucking partners waiting on accessorials or detention/demurrage disputes. Meanwhile, the FAA is cutting flight volumes across major markets as early as November 7–14, a reminder that transportation disruptions can spread quickly across modes when federal services are constrained.
There’s also legal overhang: the Supreme Court began hearing arguments on November 5 over the administration’s tariff powers, a case that could inject new volatility into ocean pricing and sourcing decisions even if near-term policy stays largely intact. Planning buffers and flexible routing will matter more than ever if a ruling later in the term rewires tariff authority or enforcement timelines.
What this means for trucking and intermodal operators:
– Port drayage: With USWC rollovers easing and carriers still blanking, expect lumpy but manageable berth windows. Keep chassis turns tight and build extra appointment slack where terminals report rising dwell; prioritize street turns to protect asset availability.
– Inland linehaul: The soft demand backdrop implies more predictable weekly container volumes into key IPI ramps versus the “sawtooth” swings seen during tariff flare-ups. Use the Nov. 15 GRI window as a potential mini-pull-forward trigger in your bid boards and driver rosters, particularly on lanes ex-LA/LB into the Southwest and Midwest.
– Shipper cash flow: With drawback and other refunds paused during the shutdown, some importers may stretch payable cycles. Carriers and drayage providers should tighten receivables follow-up and consider short-term credit policies to bridge reliable customers through the hiatus.
– Modal agility: FAA flight cuts could nudge some urgent freight to premium ocean services or expedited truckload legs from West/Gulf ports. Monitor transload demand around LA/LB, Savannah, Houston and be ready to flex power-only capacity for peak-day bursts.
Bottom line: The U.S.–China fee pause and modest rate upticks buy the market time, not certainty. Trucking providers should treat November as a stabilization month — one where disciplined capacity planning, tight terminal coordination, and vigilant credit management will matter more than chasing volume spikes that may never materialize.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, Freightos, J.M. Rodgers, Associated Press, DLA Piper, Holland & Knight
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