Retailers are signaling that the slowdown in U.S. containerized imports won’t just persist through year-end — it’s poised to deepen in early 2026. A new outlook referenced by industry executives indicates that tariff-driven frontloading in mid-2025 is giving way to a colder back half and an even softer first quarter next year, with implications that will ripple from the docks to drayage yards, transload facilities and longhaul trucking networks.
Fresh numbers from the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker reinforce the shift. After a July peak, NRF projects November imports of about 1.85 million TEUs and December at roughly 1.75 million TEUs — the slowest month since March 2023. More telling for 2026: NRF’s preliminary view pegs January at ~1.98 million TEUs (down ~11% year over year), February at ~1.85 million (down ~9%), and March at ~1.79 million (down ~17%). In short, the demand air pocket looks set to widen after the holidays.
Rate signals at sea echo the picture. Carriers’ early‑November general rate increases found partial traction: Xeneta’s weekly read shows average spot rates on November 6 at $2,756 per FEU from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast and $3,492 to the East Coast, with the coastal spread narrowing to a one‑year low as lines tightly manage capacity heading into 2026 contract talks.
Drewry’s World Container Index also ticked higher for a fourth straight week, up about 8% to $1,959 per FEU as of November 6, with Shanghai–Los Angeles and Shanghai–New York lanes posting single‑digit gains on the back of those GRIs. Analysts caution the bump is likely temporary without further capacity discipline.
On the trans‑Pacific specifically, rate trackers say the early‑month hikes “took” on some lanes but not all: ICIS notes prices were mixed, with evidence the November 1 GRIs succeeded in lifting parts of the market while carriers continue to battle abundant capacity. That tug‑of‑war — more blank sailings versus still‑ample slots — tends to cap sustained rate rallies when volume fades.
Why this matters for trucking: fewer boxes means fewer drays and fewer transloads. If NRF’s winter baseline holds, expect thinner turn counts at Southern California and Southeast gateways, easing yard congestion but intensifying competition for available moves. Lower inbound TEUs typically reduce immediate transload demand into domestic trailers near ports and mute inland pull for 53‑foot capacity via intermodal ramps. For longhaul carriers that rely on retail restock cycles, early 2026 bid season could bring slower award pacing and shorter lead times as shippers manage inventories conservatively.
At the same time, ocean pricing dynamics feed back into inland negotiations. If spot rates sag again after the GRI bounce, BCOs and 3PLs will lean on end‑to‑end cost reductions, keeping pressure on drayage and transload rates while shifting more freight to the most efficient port‑to‑DC routings. Conversely, any renewed carrier capacity tightening — whether additional blankings or tactical GRIs — could briefly revive transload urgency, but recent market commentary suggests those upswings are proving hard to sustain without demand.
Cost inputs also bear watching. With the EIA’s latest weekly update showing U.S. on‑highway diesel trending higher into early November, surcharges may nibble at margins just as volumes cool — an awkward combination for truckers chasing utilization. Regional spreads remain pronounced, with the West Coast still the priciest.
The bottom line for carriers: plan for a softer import‑to‑truck handoff across the first quarter, build flexibility into staffing and chassis commitments, and sharpen pricing on port‑adjacent lanes where volume risk is highest. For brokers and asset‑based fleets alike, the winners in a demand downshift will be those quickest to pivot between drayage, transload‑supported truckload, and rail‑assisted options as retailers calibrate inventories to a leaner 2026.
Sources: FreightWaves, National Retail Federation, Xeneta, ICIS, Sea & Job, Fibre2Fashion
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