For-hire freight stumbled hard in October. Fresh figures from the Cass Transportation Index show shipment volumes fell 4.3% from September (down 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis) and were 7.8% below last year, marking the weakest October reading since the aftermath of the Great Recession. Total freight spend slipped just 0.2% year over year as higher base rates and mix masked the volume hit, while Cass’ Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.1% month over month and 3% year over year. Cass cautions that if normal seasonality holds, November shipments could be down roughly 10% from a year ago.
What’s driving the disconnect? Cass points to a pair of structural headwinds: shippers consolidating LTL into truckload to dodge elevated LTL tariffs, and continued freight “insourcing” at large private fleets—both of which siphon loads away from the for-hire market. That dynamic helps explain why rates look firmer even as carriers report empty miles and thinner tender queues.
The same story showed up on the tape at FreightWaves on Thursday, which underscored that October’s weakness was echoed by LTL management commentary during Q3 calls and that an extended soft patch could carry into November if seasonals play out. Yahoo Finance carried the report mid-day, amplifying the signal to a broader market audience.
Import flows aren’t riding to the rescue. New data this week from Descartes show October U.S. containerized imports at 2.31 million TEUs—essentially flat versus September but 7.5% below last year—with transit times ticking longer and imports from China still down double digits year over year despite a sequential uptick. That backdrop implies muted restocking into year-end and less downstream freight for domestic truckers to chase.
Rail confirms the softness on the domestic side. For the week ended Nov. 8, U.S. intermodal units were down 8.7% year over year, helping pull total rail traffic 4.9% lower. When the boxes on the rails slow, the dray and transload freight that feeds truckload networks usually does, too.
Even the broad, multimodal barometer at the Bureau of Transportation Statistics rolled over: the Freight Transportation Services Index fell 2.1% from August to September and was down 1.2% year over year, reflecting declines across trucking, rail carloads and intermodal, and air freight. The BTS print lines up with Cass’ October downdraft, suggesting the slowdown isn’t isolated to one mode.
On the spot market, conditions are steady-to-mixed rather than rallying. DAT-reported broker-to-carrier averages for the Nov. 2–7 week show van at $2.06/mile all-in (linehaul $1.69), reefer firming to $2.45, and flatbed flat at $2.41. Load posts were broadly stable while truck posts rose—a combination that typically keeps a lid on rates outside of holiday-sensitive reefer lanes.
Upstream ocean pricing isn’t providing much lift either. Drewry’s World Container Index did jump 8% week over week to $1,959/FEU as Nov. 1 general rate increases took hold, including gains on Shanghai–U.S. lanes. But analysts expect the bounce to be short-lived unless carriers keep blanking sailings; that transpac softness tends to feed through to fewer boxes and fewer drays several weeks later.
Why this matters for truckers: Cass’ numbers say the demand air pockets are real, and without a clear consumer or industrial catalyst, the lane-by-lane battle for volume will continue. For-hire fleets should expect:
– Rate composition to matter more than rate direction. With LTL-to-TL consolidation and mix shifts propping base prices even as volumes sag, contract discipline and accessorial capture can outweigh small changes in headline linehaul.
– Uneven peaks. The holiday build is likely to be a series of short, regional pulses (notably in perishables) rather than a broad wave, consistent with DAT’s early-November read and Descartes’ caution on importer behavior. Position assets where reefer and retail-adjacent freight still have urgency.
– Intermodal spillover risk. With weekly intermodal taking a step back, drayage and transload-dependent lanes may see softer tender volumes into late November, blunting any benefit from the GRI-driven ocean spot uptick.
Looking ahead, Cass flags policy uncertainty—specifically the pending Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs—as a swing factor for consumer affordability and freight demand. Until there’s clarity, the prudent play is to protect margins: prioritize dedicated and high-service freight, keep a tight handle on deadhead, and avoid overcommitting capacity to short-lived peaks.
Sources: FreightWaves, Cass Information Systems, Yahoo Finance, Descartes Systems Group, Association of American Railroads, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, AJOT, Drewry (via Cyprus Shipping News)
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