Introduction
As of the week ending November 10, 2025, the U.S. spot market softened on lower freight postings and a modest decline in dry van and reefer spot rates. The headline week-over-week (WoW) story is pressure on load-to-truck ratios (LTRs) for vans and flatbeds, while reefers managed a slight LTR uptick despite rate slippage. National fuel costs climbed again, adding operating cost pressure even as demand cooled. Data cited below reflect the verified dataset as of November 10, 2025.
Spot Rate Trends
– Vans: Van spot rates eased 0.985% WoW. Month-over-month (MoM), van spot rates are up 1.0%, and flat year-over-year (YoY, 0%). The van LTR fell 13.9% WoW and is down 6.1% MoM, but remains 48.6% above last year—evidence that capacity is structurally tighter than 2024 even when weekly demand dips.
– Reefers: Reefer spot rates slid 1.27% WoW, yet are up 2.17% MoM and 1.29% YoY. Importantly, reefer LTR edged up 0.24% WoW and 3.09% MoM, and is a striking 93.0% higher YoY, signaling considerably tighter refrigerated capacity than a year ago.
– Flatbeds: Flatbed spot rates were unchanged WoW, but rose 1.56% MoM and 1.17% YoY. The flatbed LTR dropped 11.77% WoW and 4.78% MoM, though YoY it is still up 72.46%.
The mixed WoW pattern—softer rates for vans and reefers and flatbed flat—mirrors the sharp weekly drop in available loads and a smaller decline in truck postings (see Market Drivers). YoY, however, all three equipment types show considerably tighter LTRs, consistent with fewer trucks relative to freight than in 2024.
Market Drivers
– Demand: National load postings declined 13.53% WoW, and are down 0.75% MoM. Even so, they remain 14.12% higher than a year ago.
– Capacity: National truck postings fell 2.32% WoW, rose 3.53% MoM, and are down a sizable 29.12% YoY. The combination—loads down WoW faster than trucks—pressured LTRs this week, particularly for vans and flatbeds.
– Consumer/retail backdrop: The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. holiday spending to top $1.0 trillion for the first time, indicating resilient fourth-quarter demand despite macro uncertainty. That outlook supports reefers and parcel-adjacent dry van flows into late November and December.
– Weather: A potent early-season Arctic outbreak and lake-effect snow impacted the Great Lakes, Midwest, and parts of the Southeast from November 9–11, introducing chain restrictions, slower turns, and localized capacity disruptions. Winter storm warnings and reports of thundersnow around Lake Michigan created intermittent network friction—particularly affecting reefer food distribution and van retail replenishment in snow belts.
Fuel & Costs
Fuel is the other big WoW story. National diesel rose 2.4% WoW, 3.26% MoM, and 7.96% YoY in the dataset; the national diesel average printed at roughly $3.84/gal on November 10. That aligns with the DOE/EIA weekly benchmark, which jumped to about $3.84 per gallon this week—its highest since mid-2024—after three consecutive weekly increases totaling roughly 22 cents.
Elevated diesel directly lifts fuel surcharges (FSCs) and total delivered costs. The monthly history confirms this pass-through: between October and November 2025, average FSCs rose for all equipment types (e.g., van FSC from $0.40 to $0.42 per mile). Looking ahead, the EIA’s November Short-Term Energy Outlook points to a generally easing path for refined product prices into 2026, but near-term volatility remains a risk tied to inventories and seasonal demand.
Carrier Outlook
– Dry Van: Near-term WoW softness is driven by a steeper drop in load postings versus trucks. Expect uneven weeks ahead as winter weather intermittently constrains capacity while pre-Thanksgiving and Cyber Week replenishment adds pulses of demand. Given the van LTR’s strong YoY gain (+48.6%), carriers should be selective rather than defensive: prioritize lanes where retail pull-through and e-commerce middle-mile are strongest, and leverage accessorials (detention, holiday layovers) to defend margins.
– Reefer: Despite a 1.27% WoW rate dip, reefer LTR ticked higher WoW and is up materially MoM and YoY. Seasonal food demand, temperature control needs during cold snaps, and holiday perishables should underpin reefers through December. Push for FSC true-ups weekly while fuel remains elevated, and target markets with tighter cold storage and grocery DC footprints.
– Flatbed: Flat, week-on-week rates and a double-digit WoW LTR drop reflect shoulder-season construction and manufacturing pauses and weather interruptions. However, YoY LTR strength (+72.5%) suggests a thinner carrier base than last year. Maintain pricing discipline on industrial corridors; where backhauls weaken, shorten deadhead and consolidate regional turns.
Operationally, carriers and brokers should:
– Refresh FSC schedules weekly while diesel remains elevated; the three-week climb in DOE/EIA benchmark supports immediate surcharge updates.
– Weather-harden plans: pre-stage equipment around Great Lakes and Appalachians; build additional transit slack and confirm pickup/delivery windows in snow belts following NWS advisories.
– Align with retail flows: NRF’s trillion-dollar holiday outlook favors selective capacity commitments into key e-commerce and grocery nodes from mid-November through year-end.
Spot Rates + FSC (last 6 months)
| Month | Van Spot | Van FSC | Van Total | Reefer Spot | Reefer FSC | Reefer Total | Flatbed Spot | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06 | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| 2025-07 | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| 2025-08 | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| 2025-09 | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $2.01 | $0.50 | $2.51 |
| 2025-10 | $1.66 | $0.40 | $2.06 | $2.04 | $0.44 | $2.48 | $2.02 | $0.49 | $2.51 |
| 2025-11 | $1.66 | $0.42 | $2.08 | $2.05 | $0.46 | $2.51 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
Bottom line: This was a demand-led down week for dry van and flatbed utilization, with reefer the relative outperformer on LTR. Rising fuel costs tightened margins across the board, but holiday demand and weather volatility should create targeted pricing power opportunities. The YoY LTR gains across all three modes underscore that, beneath weekly noise, the market remains structurally tighter than last year.
Sources Consulted: U.S. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update; DOE/EIA November Short-Term Energy Outlook; FreightWaves/Yahoo Finance diesel benchmark update; Associated Press weather coverage (Great Lakes, Arctic air); AP on NRF holiday forecast.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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