A high-profile debate between FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller and DAT’s Ken Adamo on Thursday captured a trucking market split over whether today’s pain stems from too much capacity or too little demand — and whether conditions are quietly turning. Fuller argued that spot pricing is “melting up” even as volumes lag, creating a squeeze for intermediaries. Adamo countered that the industry remains oversupplied; if capacity were truly exiting, prices would reflect it more decisively. The exchange, moderated by transportation attorney Matthew Leffler, set the stage for a week of fresh developments that could swing the capacity calculus.
Within hours of the debate, the policy backdrop shifted. A federal appeals court in Washington put the U.S. Department of Transportation’s interim rule on non‑domiciled CDLs on ice — first via an administrative stay on Monday, then with a broader stay on Thursday that keeps the rule suspended while litigation proceeds. For fleets, that means states can continue issuing non‑domiciled CDLs under pre‑rule procedures unless they’re under separate corrective action plans, delaying any abrupt reduction in available drivers. In short: the widely discussed driver crackdown is on pause for months, not days.
At the same time, California’s decision to revoke roughly 17,000 CDLs issued to immigrants — because license expirations exceeded the holders’ authorized stay — underscores how uneven enforcement can be across jurisdictions. The move has ignited a political fight between Sacramento and Washington over timing, legality and safety rationales, and it introduces near‑term uncertainty for shippers that rely on California‑based capacity. Whether these revocations materially tighten the market will depend on how many affected drivers can remedy their status quickly and how aggressively other states follow suit.
Demand signals aren’t making carriers’ decisions any easier. The Cass Transportation Index reported that October shipments fell to the weakest October reading since 2009, down 7.8% year over year and 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September. Cass also warned that, on normal seasonality, November shipments could be down around 10% year over year — a sobering backdrop for any “turn” narrative. For operators, the takeaway is to budget for lumpy, air‑pocket demand through peak and into year‑end.
Fuel is the other wild card. The DOE/EIA benchmark diesel price — the number embedded in most fuel‑surcharge formulas — jumped again this week to $3.837 per gallon, the highest since July 2024, adding cost pressure precisely when many spot lanes still won’t pay for it. Crude markets, however, eased on Thursday after U.S. inventory builds and a softer OPEC outlook, a reminder that next week’s diesel print could look different. Fleets and brokers should double‑check surcharge tables and hedge assumptions as this volatility ripples through November bids.
Automation loomed large in Fuller and Adamo’s exchange, and the latest numbers from one of the sector’s bellwethers suggest commercialization remains a marathon. On Friday, Barron’s highlighted that newly public Kodiak AI posted a wider GAAP loss tied to merger accounting and continues to burn cash even as it charts a path to driverless long‑haul late in 2026. Translation for today’s fleets: autonomy may eventually relieve some labor and safety constraints, but it’s not a 2025 capacity lever for general over‑the‑road freight.
Put together, the week’s developments explain why two seasoned market watchers can see the same picture differently. On the capacity side, the court’s stay slows the immediate impact of federal CDL restrictions, even as California’s revocations inject localized friction. On the demand side, Cass data shows freight volumes are still underwhelming. And over it all sits fuel volatility that can erase already‑thin margins. If you’re a carrier, that argues for tight cost control, selective network pruning and contract re‑pricing that reflects higher diesel. If you’re a broker, it means defending margins as spot inches up against weak volumes — and leaning hard into compliance vetting as licensing rules toggle between jurisdictions.
What to watch next: the D.C. Circuit’s briefing schedule on the CDL rule; any copycat actions by other large licensing states; the next weekly diesel benchmark; and whether November’s shipment dip matches Cass’ caution. Those markers will tell us if Fuller’s “slow melt‑up” can overcome Adamo’s “demand problem” — or if the industry remains stuck in a grinding stalemate into December.
Sources: FreightWaves/Yahoo Finance, FMCSA, Overdrive, Associated Press, Cass Information Systems, Reuters, EIA, Barron’s
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