A spirited public debate between FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and DAT’s Ken Adamo sharpened a core question facing U.S. trucking: is the industry finally climbing out of a bruising downturn, or will weak goods demand keep rates pinned even as regulators squeeze driver supply? The two squared off this week in a livestreamed “Great Freight Debate,” trading interpretations of spot-rate blips, capacity attrition and the ripple effects of federal and state crackdowns on non‑domiciled CDLs and English‑language proficiency enforcement.
Adamo’s case leaned on demand: if real capacity were coming out, spot prices would move decisively higher and stay there; instead, he argued, the market remains oversupplied. Fuller countered that supply is already tightening on the margins—“melting up” spot rates when disruptions hit—leaving brokers squeezed between sticky costs and anemic volumes. For carriers, that split verdict matters: those with disciplined networks and cost control can grind out margins, while small fleets living off the spot board face longer stretches of feast-or-famine pricing.
Policy shocks turned the discussion from theory to triage. California this week began revoking 17,000 commercial driver’s licenses that exceeded holders’ authorized periods of stay, an action triggered by a federal audit. The state is giving affected drivers 60 days’ notice—meaning the hit to available trucks could arrive right as shippers push late holiday freight. Even if only a fraction of those drivers were actively hauling interstate loads, regional capacity pockets could tighten quickly, especially in drayage and cross‑dock markets tethered to West Coast corridors.
Yet a fast‑escalating federal rule that would have removed a far larger swath of non‑domiciled drivers from the market is now on ice. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued an administrative stay on Monday, then on Thursday granted an emergency stay that halts FMCSA’s interim final rule while legal challenges proceed—keeping states on the pre‑rule status quo for issuing non‑domiciled CDLs. That pause blunts the risk of a sudden, national capacity shock, even as California’s targeted revocations proceed.
The court’s order signaled skepticism on several fronts, including whether FMCSA skipped required consultation with states and improperly bypassed notice‑and‑comment rulemaking—signals that suggest the litigation may run for months. For shippers and brokers, the practical takeaway is that near‑term regulatory risk is shifting from a broad federal squeeze to state-by-state enforcement actions and corrective plans, which can still dent local supply and snarl routing guides.
In the ports and ramps, logistics planners are already gaming out what a trucking exodus could mean if enforcement accelerates. ITS Logistics’ latest monthly index kept operations at “normal” across major coastal gateways for now, but flagged 2026 risk scenarios that include driver shortfalls pushing drayage rates and dwell fees higher. If even a modest share of revocations and immigration arrests concentrate in port‑adjacent markets, chassis turns, appointment compliance and rail ramp fluidity could wobble before imports recover.
What to watch next: First, California’s 60‑day clock. If a meaningful portion of those 17,000 CDLs translate into active trucks, expect tighter coverage and rising spot premiums in the state’s core outbound lanes and border‑state backhauls as early as mid‑January. Second, the D.C. Circuit briefing schedule; the stay gives fleets and recruiters breathing room, but a fast track to a merits decision could revive national constraints. Third, how brokers handle risk transfer—insurance carriers have hinted they’ll scrutinize language‑proficiency and license provenance more aggressively, which may force stricter onboarding and shrink carrier networks, particularly for high‑exposure freight.
The Fuller–Adamo clash distilled the strategic choices. If demand is the main villain, scale and efficiency rule the day and 2026 improvement hinges on a broader goods rebound. If supply is the swing factor, targeted enforcement and attrition can move pricing before volumes do—especially during weather events and holiday surges. For now, fleets should scenario‑plan both paths: secure compliant drivers and documentation, pre‑book fuel and maintenance to dampen volatility, and build flexibility into bids and mini‑bids through Q1 while the courts, Sacramento and the spot market decide how quickly the pendulum swings.
Sources: FreightWaves, Associated Press, Overdrive, Yahoo Finance, FMCSA
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