Introduction
For the week of November 10–16, 2025, new U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) registrations totaled 2,667. The dataset shows pronounced weekday strength led by carriers, a typical weekend lull, and continued dominance by Texas, California, and Florida at the state level. Against a backdrop of soft freight demand but rising diesel prices, the week’s activity points to selective risk-taking by small fleets and owner-operators while brokers remain comparatively cautious. Below, we analyze week-over-week changes, daily patterns, state leaders, and the market context shaping new entries.
Weekly Overview
Registrations fell to 2,667 this week from 2,986 the prior week (November 3–9), a 10.7% decline. Carriers accounted for 2,459 of this week’s filings (92.2% share), brokers 80 (3.0%), and “others” 128 (4.8%). Compared with the prior week, carriers dropped by 299 (-10.8%), brokers by 2 (-2.4%), and others by 18 (-12.3%). The average daily total across all seven days was 381; concentrated Monday through Friday, the weekday average was about 509, versus just 62 per weekend day.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 (Mon) | 572 | 19 | 34 | 625 |
| 2025-11-11 (Tue) | 411 | 11 | 10 | 432 |
| 2025-11-12 (Wed) | 303 | 8 | 14 | 325 |
| 2025-11-13 (Thu) | 599 | 21 | 39 | 659 |
| 2025-11-14 (Fri) | 464 | 14 | 25 | 503 |
| 2025-11-15 (Sat) | 103 | 7 | 6 | 116 |
| 2025-11-16 (Sun) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Daily cadence was front-loaded: Thursday (659) was the high-water mark, with Monday (625) and Friday (503) also strong. Saturday and Sunday collapsed to 116 and 7 respectively—a normal pattern but more extreme than average, suggesting filings were batched during the main business window.
State-Level Trends
Texas, California, and Florida dominated most days, with occasional surges from New Jersey and New York. Highlights by day:
- Mon, Nov 10: TX (66), CA (60), FL (57) led; Georgia (32) and Pennsylvania (26) followed. Canadian provinces and Puerto Rico appeared in small numbers.
- Tue, Nov 11: FL (48) topped the list, then TX (41), CA (37). Notably, New Jersey posted a strong 31, outpacing larger states like Pennsylvania (22) and Georgia (20).
- Wed, Nov 12: TX (39), FL (31), CA (27) led; New York (16), North Carolina (16) and Pennsylvania (16) were clustered behind them.
- Thu, Nov 13: TX surged to 87; CA (67) and FL (57) rounded out the top three. Georgia (33), Pennsylvania (29) and New York (29) were also elevated.
- Fri, Nov 14: TX (67), CA (51), FL (36) led; New York (26), Georgia (24) and Pennsylvania (22) formed the next tier.
- Sat, Nov 15: CA (16) edged TX (12) and FL (11); Pennsylvania (9) and New Jersey (8) were close behind.
- Sun, Nov 16: Activity was diffuse: UT, TX, NC, CA, NM, KY, and OH each recorded a single registration.
Aggregating across the week, Texas was the consistent volume leader across weekdays, with California and Florida alternating in the second and third positions. New Jersey’s midweek spike (particularly on Nov 11) underscores ongoing strength in the Northeast corridor’s logistics clusters. Cross-border presence from Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta, and Puerto Rico remained minimal and episodic.
Market Drivers
Fuel costs rose into the week. The U.S. average on-highway diesel price posted by EIA was $3.837/gal for the week of November 10, up 8.4 cents from the prior reading and the highest level since mid-2024. This benchmark, widely used for fuel surcharge calculations, has now risen three straight weeks—a headwind for fledgling carriers evaluating operating costs.
Freight volumes stayed soft while rates showed mixed signals. The October Cass Freight Index reported shipments down 4.3% m/m (-2.1% SA) and -7.8% y/y, the weakest October since 2009. At the same time, Cass’ Truckload Linehaul Index was up 3.0% y/y in October, with analysts noting that early November spot trends softened after pre-tariff activity faded. This combination—slower volume but some stabilization in linehaul rates—maps to our observed pattern: carriers remain active but cautious, while broker formation lags.
Energy outlook implies eventual relief, but not immediately. EIA’s November Short-Term Energy Outlook points to global oversupply into 2026, with forecasts for lower average crude and, ultimately, lower retail diesel in 2026 (around $3.50/gal). In the near term, however, inventories and refining dynamics have supported higher diesel, complicating cost planning for new entrants.
Recent Weekly Totals
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 to 2025-08-31 | 3002 | 93 | 114 | 3209 |
| 2025-09-01 to 2025-09-07 | 2651 | 91 | 102 | 2844 |
| 2025-09-08 to 2025-09-14 | 2971 | 97 | 96 | 3164 |
| 2025-09-15 to 2025-09-21 | 2911 | 84 | 115 | 3110 |
| 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-28 | 3026 | 95 | 112 | 3233 |
| 2025-09-29 to 2025-10-05 | 2966 | 88 | 100 | 3154 |
| 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-12 | 2830 | 89 | 126 | 3045 |
| 2025-10-13 to 2025-10-19 | 2675 | 96 | 104 | 2875 |
| 2025-10-20 to 2025-10-26 | 2804 | 94 | 82 | 2980 |
| 2025-10-27 to 2025-11-02 | 2841 | 90 | 114 | 3045 |
| 2025-11-03 to 2025-11-09 | 2758 | 82 | 146 | 2986 |
| 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-16 | 2459 | 80 | 128 | 2667 |
Over the past 12 weeks, totals have trended lower since late September. The latest week’s 2,667 is 17.5% below the late-September peak (3,233 in the week ending September 28), reflecting a cooler new-entry pipeline as peak-season tailwinds underwhelm and fuel costs rise.
Market Drivers
Three themes explain the week’s formation patterns:
- Input costs: The jump in diesel to $3.837/gal in the week of November 10 raises operating breakevens for small carriers, discouraging marginal entrants.
- Demand signals: The Cass Freight Index shows October volumes deteriorated, with early November spot activity softening after pre-tariff surges earlier in the year. That mix of tepid demand and only modest rate support typically depresses broker openings more than carrier filings—consistent with this week’s sharper drop in carriers and “others,” while brokers slipped only slightly.
- Medium-term fuel outlook: EIA’s November outlook highlights potential fuel-price relief over 2025–2026 as inventories build, which may bolster formation later—but the near-term remains choppy.
Outlook
With Thanksgiving falling on November 27, 2025, the next two weeks will be affected by holiday staffing and filing schedules. Expect lighter weekend activity to extend into holiday-adjacent weekdays, further compressing totals. In the near term, if retail diesel continues to print higher weekly averages, we anticipate incremental caution among single-truck startups and micro-fleets, particularly in fuel-sensitive segments like flatbed and reefer.
On the demand side, shipment softness documented in October and early November suggests limited upside catalysts for broker formation until volume stabilizes. However, state-level patterns provide a counterweight: Texas, California, and Florida continue to generate outsized registrations, supported by diversified freight bases (energy/chemicals and cross-border flows in TX; ports/intermodal and consumer goods in CA; and consumer, agriculture, and construction in FL). These geographies should underpin baseline formation even as national totals ebb.
Medium-term, a few developments could brighten the pipeline: (1) if EIA’s oversupply thesis plays out and diesel normalizes lower in 2026, operating margins for small fleets will improve; (2) ongoing capacity rationalization among larger carriers may open spots for nimble entrants to capture dedicated or niche lanes; and (3) incremental rate stabilization, hinted at by linehaul indices, could reduce risk for new entrants. That said, sustained freight growth remains the missing ingredient—without a clear demand upswing, we expect registrations to remain range-bound into year-end, with week-to-week volatility driven by fuel, weather, and calendar effects.
Sources Consulted: EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (weekly prices); EIA November Short-Term Energy Outlook coverage; Cass Transportation Index Report (October 2025) and related analysis; industry reporting on diesel price movements.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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