Introduction
Between November 17 and November 23, 2025, USDOT recorded 3,103 new registrations across carriers, brokers, and other authorities. Mid‑week filings dominated: Wednesday (988) and Thursday (760) alone represented 56% of the week’s total, typical of the “register midweek, launch next week” cadence we often see as firms aim to be active ahead of the Thanksgiving shipping surge. While the roll‑up of daily filings sums to 2,865 carriers, 102 brokers, and 136 “others,” the weekly ledger in the historical series shows a very similar mix—2,852 carriers, 108 brokers, and 143 others—indicating minor late postings or reclassifications. For week‑over‑week comparisons below, we reference the weekly history to remain consistent with prior weeks’ methodology.
Weekly Overview
– Momentum returned. Total registrations rose to 3,103, up 11.9% from the prior week’s 2,772. Carriers led the increase (+12.9% to 2,852), brokers advanced even faster in percentage terms (+20.0% to 108), while the “others” category eased 7.7% to 143. That composition points to a capacity‑led expansion with a modest pickup in intermediary formation.
– Above trend. The latest total sits 5.6% above the trailing four‑week average (~2,940), and narrowly exceeds the late‑October/early‑November pace (2,974–3,033). Put simply, new entrants accelerated into the holiday period after a softer November 10–16 interval.
– Daily pattern. After a quiet Monday (135) and a strong build Tuesday (451), filings peaked midweek (988 on Wednesday), then normalized Friday (473) and dipped over the weekend (110 Saturday; 186 Sunday). The curve aligns with typical operational workflows (insurance binding, BOC‑3 processing, and safety plan finalization) clustering Tuesday–Thursday.
– Carriers vs. brokers. Carriers comprised roughly 92% of the week’s weekly‑history total (2,852/3,103), brokers 3.5% (108), and others 4.6% (143). The broker rebound is notable given earlier autumn plateaus; it likely reflects shippers’ late‑season project freight and holiday replenishment that favor flexible intermediary capacity.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | 126 | 3 | 6 | 135 |
| 2025-11-18 | 420 | 12 | 19 | 451 |
| 2025-11-19 | 911 | 32 | 45 | 988 |
| 2025-11-20 | 710 | 28 | 22 | 760 |
| 2025-11-21 | 431 | 17 | 25 | 473 |
| 2025-11-22 | 94 | 6 | 10 | 110 |
| 2025-11-23 | 173 | 4 | 9 | 186 |
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 to 2025-10-19 | 2655 | 106 | 108 | 2869 |
| 2025-10-20 to 2025-10-26 | 2809 | 91 | 74 | 2974 |
| 2025-10-27 to 2025-11-02 | 2819 | 95 | 119 | 3033 |
| 2025-11-03 to 2025-11-09 | 2765 | 87 | 128 | 2980 |
| 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-16 | 2527 | 90 | 155 | 2772 |
| 2025-11-17 to 2025-11-23 | 2852 | 108 | 143 | 3103 |
State‑Level Trends
Daily leaders show a consistent Sun Belt–plus–California tilt, with Texas, California, and Florida appearing on top virtually every day, joined midweek by populous freight hubs along the Eastern seaboard:
– Mon (11/17): TX (16), FL (11), CA (10), GA/NY (8 each).
– Tue (11/18): CA (50), TX (46), FL (39), IL (24), PA (23).
– Wed (11/19): TX (98), CA (87), FL (76), GA (54), NJ (48).
– Thu (11/20): TX (75), CA (72), FL (65), NC (47), PA (44).
– Fri (11/21): CA (61), TX (57), FL (33), GA (27), NC (20).
– Sat (11/22): TX (13), FL (12), CA (7), NJ/NY (6 each).
– Sun (11/23): TX (21), NY (11), CA (10), PA/TN/FL/NC (9 each).
Two takeaways stand out. First, Texas and California are anchoring new capacity, reflecting their outsized roles in energy, manufacturing, imports, and population growth. Second, the mid‑Atlantic and Northeast (NJ, NY, PA, MA) spike midweek, consistent with final‑mile and food distribution preparations heading into Thanksgiving. Weekend filing softness is universal but does not alter the weekday hierarchy.
Market Drivers
– Holiday demand pull. AAA projects a record 81.8 million Americans traveling 50+ miles for Thanksgiving (Nov 25–Dec 1), with about 73 million by car. That level of road activity historically boosts short‑haul and regional truck demand for grocery, beverage, and e‑commerce replenishment—supportive of the week’s elevated carrier registrations.
– Airside pressure, landside spillover. The FAA expects the busiest Thanksgiving in 15 years, with more than 360,000 flights during the holiday window and Tuesday, Nov 25, as the peak day. While aviation is distinct from trucking, tight airport operations and weather windows tend to shift more last‑mile and airport‑adjacent ground moves into compressed periods—encouraging brokers to add capacity options.
– Diesel price backdrop. Retail diesel has climbed through mid‑November, with the DOE/EIA benchmark price reaching roughly $3.84 per gallon as of Nov 12 and industry trackers noting continued week‑over‑week increases into Nov 17. Rising fuel costs can slow net carrier formation in weak freight cycles, but around holidays, operators often accept near‑term margin pressure to capitalize on volume, which may explain the strong carrier count despite higher diesel.
– Refining margins and distillate tightness. Global refining profits in mid‑November hit multi‑year highs, with elevated diesel cracks especially in Europe—conditions that can keep U.S. diesel prices firm even when crude softens. That helps explain the fuel‑price resilience showing up in U.S. retail benchmarks and suggests operating costs may remain sticky into early December.
– Spot market tone. DAT‑based summaries indicate that in early to mid‑November, load posts held firm before dipping 5% in the Nov 8–14 week, while average spot rates were broadly steady to slightly softer for dry van, steadier for reefer, and easing for flatbed. Holiday positioning can decouple weekly volumes from rate moves, but the overall picture is of a still‑competitive market—consistent with our observation that most new filings are small carrier authorities rather than an outsized broker surge.
Outlook
Looking ahead from the week ended November 23 into the Thanksgiving travel week and the first half of December, we expect:
– Near‑term stability with slight upside risk. Registrations typically cool during the holiday week itself, then rebound in early December as year‑end business plans and tax timing catalyze late filings. Given the strong showing this week, a modest December‑start echo is likely, barring severe weather. FAA’s traffic outlook and AAA’s record road‑travel forecast both support continued logistics activity across airport‑adjacent and highway corridors.
– Fuel remains a swing factor—but not a stopper. Diesel’s recent climb raises operating costs, yet EIA’s updated outlook still projects a gradual easing in 2026. For now, firm refining margins and holiday demand imply prices won’t provide immediate relief. Carriers entering now should emphasize fuel‑surcharge discipline on brokered freight and favor lanes with shorter lengths of haul where pass‑throughs are more reliable.
– State mix to persist. Expect Texas, California, and Florida to continue leading new filings, with mid‑Atlantic/Northeast states spiking on heavy retail and food distribution cycles. Watch North Carolina and Pennsylvania—both popped on Thursday—as bellwethers for Southeastern and Northeast regional networks ahead of early‑December retail returns and pharma/healthcare seasonal moves.
– Brokers’ share to hover near 3–4%. The 20% week‑over‑week broker increase likely reflects short‑term holiday arbitrage rather than a structural turn. If December spot rates firm on tighter post‑holiday capacity, broker formation could stay steady; otherwise, we anticipate brokers’ share of registrations to remain a small slice relative to carrier authorities.
Bottom line: the week of November 17–23 delivered a timely acceleration in new USDOT authorities led by carriers, aligned with record Thanksgiving travel, resilient spot demand pockets, and rising—but manageable—diesel costs. Mid‑week filing clusters and Sun Belt leadership suggest operators are positioning for short‑haul holiday freight now, with an eye toward a measured December finish.
Sources Consulted: AAA Thanksgiving Travel Forecast (Nov 17, 2025); FAA Thanksgiving Operations Update (Nov 21, 2025); FreightWaves/Yahoo on DOE/EIA Diesel Benchmark (Nov 12, 2025); Work Truck Online diesel update (Nov 17, 2025); Reuters refining margins (Nov 18, 2025); DAT/Blue Book and AJOT spot‑market trend summaries (Nov 11–18, 2025).
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