Introduction
Over the seven days ending December 21, 2025, USDOT logged 2,802 new registrations across carriers, brokers, and other entities. Activity clustered mid‑week, with filings surging Wednesday through Friday and tapering into the weekend—typical of the pre‑holiday cadence when back offices rush to clear paperwork before travel and staffing slowdowns. Broader freight conditions also helped set the tone: spot demand and rates improved into mid‑December while retail parcel volumes and holiday travel hit records, even as winter storms and airline disruptions nudged more freight onto trucks.
Weekly Overview
– Week of Dec 15–21 vs. prior week (Dec 8–14): total registrations dipped slightly to 2,802 (−0.9% w/w), with a mixed pattern by segment. Carriers eased 2.1% to 2,535, while brokers rose 14.4% to 119 and “others” climbed 11.3% to 148. The total is also 2.2% below the three‑week average since Thanksgiving (2,864), reflecting a gentle year‑end deceleration after early‑December’s rebound. Note: The daily totals below reconcile to 2,802; the weekly segment mix is taken from the weekly history series in the dataset.
– Day‑of‑week shape: 75.8% of all filings hit mid‑week (Wed–Fri), led by Friday’s 891 registrations (31.8% of the weekly total). Monday and Tuesday were quiet (111 and 112, respectively), and weekend activity softened as expected.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 (Mon) | 105 | 4 | 2 | 111 |
| 2025-12-16 (Tue) | 99 | 3 | 10 | 112 |
| 2025-12-17 (Wed) | 567 | 23 | 25 | 615 |
| 2025-12-18 (Thu) | 565 | 23 | 29 | 617 |
| 2025-12-19 (Fri) | 801 | 38 | 52 | 891 |
| 2025-12-20 (Sat) | 234 | 18 | 18 | 270 |
| 2025-12-21 (Sun) | 176 | 2 | 8 | 186 |
Recent multi‑week context from the dataset shows registrations oscillating around the high‑2,000s to low‑3,000s most of Q4, with a sharp Thanksgiving lull (Nov 24–30) followed by a rebound (Dec 1–7) and a modest glide into late December (Dec 8–21).
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 – 2025-10-05 | 2934 | 89 | 96 | 3119 |
| 2025-10-06 – 2025-10-12 | 2804 | 92 | 119 | 3015 |
| 2025-10-13 – 2025-10-19 | 2656 | 97 | 99 | 2852 |
| 2025-10-20 – 2025-10-26 | 2797 | 93 | 63 | 2953 |
| 2025-10-27 – 2025-11-02 | 2853 | 79 | 87 | 3019 |
| 2025-11-03 – 2025-11-09 | 2771 | 78 | 103 | 2952 |
| 2025-11-10 – 2025-11-16 | 2533 | 93 | 115 | 2741 |
| 2025-11-17 – 2025-11-23 | 2854 | 107 | 102 | 3063 |
| 2025-11-24 – 2025-11-30 | 1830 | 61 | 93 | 1984 |
| 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-07 | 2743 | 104 | 118 | 2965 |
| 2025-12-08 – 2025-12-14 | 2589 | 104 | 133 | 2826 |
| 2025-12-15 – 2025-12-21 | 2535 | 119 | 148 | 2802 |
Segment shares in the latest week: carriers 90.5%, brokers 4.2%, others 5.3%. Broker registrations’ double‑digit WoW gain stands out against carriers’ slight pullback—consistent with a year‑end mix where new intermediaries seek credentials before January while carrier formations slow with holidays.
State-Level Trends
Across the week, California, Texas, and Florida dominated, with notable single‑day spikes:
– Mon, Dec 15: California (11), Florida (10), then New Jersey/Texas (8 each).
– Tue, Dec 16: Texas (17) led; California and Florida (10 each); Georgia/Pennsylvania (7 each).
– Wed, Dec 17: Texas (94), California (69), Florida (46) accounted for roughly one‑third of the day’s 615 filings.
– Thu, Dec 18: California (79), Texas (58), Florida (46), Pennsylvania (44) comprised ~37% of the day’s 617.
– Fri, Dec 19: California (106), Texas (84), Florida (77), Illinois (43), Georgia (42). California–Texas–Florida alone were ~30% of Friday’s 891.
– Sat, Dec 20: California (28), Florida (24), Texas (20), with mid‑tier strength in Pennsylvania and New Jersey (14 and 12).
– Sun, Dec 21: Florida and North Carolina (20 each) topped, followed by Texas/California (16 each); New York (12) and Maryland/Minnesota (10 each) rounded out leaders.
West Coast strength (CA) mid‑to‑late week overlaps with severe Pacific storms and high winds across Washington/Oregon spreading east, conditions that can both delay operations and prompt capacity shuffles and last‑minute filings. In California specifically, heavy rains and flooding threats ramped into the week of Christmas, adding friction to local logistics.
Market Drivers
– Spot demand and pricing: DAT reported December spot volumes improving into mid‑month, with higher national average spot rates versus November across vans, reefers, and flatbeds. In the week of Dec 7–13, rate pressure was visible even amid lower load posts, as winter weather and grocery/retail repositioning tightened capacity—conditions conducive to sustained carrier interest but also to broker formations seeking to capitalize on year‑end flows. More broadly, DAT’s December summary pointed to higher van net‑fuel rates and a narrowing gap between spot and contract—signals of incremental capacity tightening.
– Fuel costs: The EIA’s U.S. on‑highway diesel average fell to $3.607/gal as of Dec 15, down nearly 6 cents from the prior week, with declines across most regions—some steepest in the West. Softer diesel supports operating margins for new entrants, partially offsetting Q4’s seasonal cost pressures.
– Peak parcel and consumer mobility: USPS surpassed 9.3 billion deliveries by the afternoon of Dec 22—a testament to peak parcel intensity that typically spills into truckload repositioning and middle‑mile movements. Meanwhile, AAA projected a record 122.4 million holiday travelers for the Dec 20–Jan 1 window, implying dense highway corridors and time‑off patterns that can compress carrier availability and push shippers toward intermediaries.
– Network shocks and mode shifts: FedEx’s grounding of MD‑11 aircraft after a separate UPS incident added peak‑season air‑capacity friction, prompting substitution to trucks and leased lift—another factor that can lift short‑term demand for capacity orchestration and potentially stimulate broker registrations.
– Weather: A powerful storm sequence hit the Pacific Northwest and moved eastward during Dec 17–20, bringing outages, high winds, and blizzard conditions in parts of the Rockies and Upper Midwest—complicating route planning and perhaps contributing to the mid‑week registration bulge as firms sought to realign authority and dispatch options.
Outlook
The final ten days of December typically see: (1) front‑loaded filings before offices go quiet, (2) fewer new carriers as drivers step back for holidays, and (3) a modest uptick in brokers and “other” categories racing to secure credentials ahead of January bid cycles. With diesel trending lower into mid‑December, a still‑constructive spot backdrop, and parcel/retail networks running hot, we expect registrations to remain range‑bound through year‑end and re‑accelerate in early January as shippers process returns and inventory resets (“reverse logistics” lift), consistent with parcel operators’ guidance for a January returns surge.
Key watch‑items for the next two weeks:
– Fuel: If EIA data continue to show easing diesel, Q1 operating costs for new entrants improve at the margin.
– Weather: Additional atmospheric river events or Arctic outbreaks could briefly distort state‑level filing patterns and load balance.
– Retail unwind: The pace of returns and late holiday replenishment will influence early‑January spot demand and the mix of carrier vs. broker registrations.
Bottom line: For the week ending December 21, 2025, new USDOT registrations edged down slightly overall, but the internal mix favored brokers and “others,” with carriers still comprising roughly nine in ten filings. The cadence and geography align with a classic pre‑holiday pattern amplified by strong consumer mobility, robust parcel flows, improving spot fundamentals, softer diesel, and disruptive winter weather. Together, these forces should keep new‑entrant activity resilient into early Q1, with the composition tilting back toward carriers as normal schedules resume.
Sources Consulted: DAT Freight & Analytics; Blue Book Services; U.S. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update; USPS (coverage via CT Insider); AAA (coverage via CT Insider); The Washington Post (weather); The Guardian (California storms); Reuters (FedEx peak-season aircraft disruption); Maersk North America Market Update.
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