Introduction
The final full week of December (December 22–28, 2025) delivered a predictable holiday pattern in new U.S. DOT registrations: a slow start around Christmas, followed by a post‑holiday surge. Using the verified dataset provided, total new filings reached 603 entities, led overwhelmingly by motor carriers. External market factors over the last seven days—lower retail fuel prices, a winter storm that snarled travel, and softening rail volumes—help explain the cadence and geographic distribution of registrations seen in the data.
Weekly Overview
Headline totals for the week of December 22–28: 533 carriers, 23 brokers, and 47 “other” registrants (e.g., freight-related entities), for a combined 603. Carriers accounted for 88.4% of all new filings; brokers were 3.8%; others, 7.8%.
Week over week, activity cooled from the prior week’s 801 total. Compared with December 15–21 (714 carriers, 32 brokers, 55 others; 801 total), carriers fell by 25.3% (−181), brokers by 28.1% (−9), and others by 14.5% (−8), bringing the aggregate down 24.7% (−198). The intraweek rhythm reflects holiday timing: registrations were negligible on Monday, ramped midweek, and peaked Friday, December 26 (222 filings), which alone contributed 36.8% of the week’s volume. Notably, December 26–28 comprised 75.8% of the week’s total, consistent with backlogged filings clearing after Christmas Day.
Daily counts (last seven days):
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025-12-24 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 60 |
| 2025-12-25 | 71 | 3 | 10 | 84 |
| 2025-12-26 | 204 | 6 | 12 | 222 |
| 2025-12-27 | 104 | 4 | 12 | 120 |
| 2025-12-28 | 99 | 8 | 8 | 115 |
Recent weekly totals (as recorded in the weekly_history series):
| Start | End | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-30 | 916 | 36 | 297 | 1249 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-07 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-14 | 922 | 38 | 58 | 1018 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-21 | 714 | 32 | 55 | 801 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-28 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
Note: The daily roll‑up for December 22–28 sums to 603 (shown above), whereas the weekly_history entry for that same week appears provisional (24 total). We therefore use the daily series and the provided weekly_totals for current‑week analytics and the weekly_history table for historical context.
State-Level Trends
Leadership rotated among the three largest freight states, with California and Florida narrowly outpacing Texas for the week.
- Week leaders (aggregate across the week): California 62, Florida 61, Texas 50. Illinois (32), New York (31), and Ohio (29) formed a strong second tier.
- December 23: Minimal activity (KY 1, MN 1 tied).
- December 24: California led (11), followed by Pennsylvania (5). A four‑way tie at 4 included Texas, Arizona, Ohio, and Minnesota.
- December 25: Florida (9) led, with California and Texas at 7 each; Indiana and Minnesota (6 each); North Carolina (5).
- December 26: The surge day—Florida (28), California (23), Texas (21); New Jersey (13) and New York (12) rounded out the top five.
- December 27: California (12) edged Florida (11); Illinois (10) was third. South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Ohio (7 each) clustered next.
- December 28: Florida (12), Texas (11), California (9), Illinois (8), and New York (8) led, with Georgia and North Carolina (7 each) close behind.
Geographically, strength in California (Southern California distribution and drayage), Florida (retail and perishables positioning), and Texas (cross‑border and energy corridors) is consistent with late‑December freight seasonality. New Jersey/New York spikes on December 26 align with port‑adjacent and last‑mile capacity needs as shippers clear holiday backlogs.
Market Drivers
Fuel costs continued to ease into the holidays, lowering a key operating barrier for new entrants. AAA reported the national average gasoline price hovered around the upper $2.80s per gallon during the week leading into Christmas—the cheapest December at the pump since 2020—while EIA’s December 23 update showed the on‑highway diesel average fell to $3.544 per gallon. Lower pump prices can encourage carriers on the margin to proceed with authority applications, even amid softer freight.
At the same time, winter weather materially disrupted travel and surface logistics late in the week. A rapidly intensifying post‑Christmas system—escalating to “bomb cyclone” status—brought blizzard and ice conditions across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, with widespread power outages and thousands of flight cancellations and delays. Such events can both delay filings (until offices reopen or connectivity improves) and create short‑term regional capacity imbalances that prompt small fleets and owner‑operators to formalize operations.
Rail intermodal softness remained another backdrop. For the week ending December 20, U.S. rail traffic fell 7.0% year over year, with carloads down 10.5% and intermodal down 4.3%. While one week does not set a trend, end‑of‑year dips in rail volumes can modestly lift truckload demand in specific corridors, especially where holiday schedules compress shipping windows.
Energy market data also pointed to near‑term stability in distillate supply. The EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status (week ended December 19) showed a slight build in distillate inventories alongside higher gasoline stocks—conditions that typically help cap diesel prices barring refinery outages or severe storms. Upcoming EIA price updates (next release December 30, per the agency’s schedule) will clarify whether post‑storm disruptions altered regional price trajectories.
Outlook
With the calendar turning to the final days of 2025 and many administrative offices fully reopened after Christmas, near‑term registrations should normalize from the holiday trough and backlog‑clearance spike we observed between December 24 and 28. Expect a slower first week of January pattern in filings compared with mid‑December, mirroring typical demand seasonality and the industry’s cautious stance at year‑end.
Three signposts to watch as we enter early January:
- Fuel trajectory: If diesel continues to trend lower or stable around the mid‑$3s nationally, entry economics for small carriers remain supportive. Region‑specific spikes tied to lingering weather effects would be the main risk.
- Modal competition and volumes: Any additional softness in rail intermodal in the final two weeks of the month could lend a marginal boost to truck‑centric corridors, though broader import moderation since November argues against a sharp, sustained lift.
- Weather volatility: The late‑December storm underscores how fast conditions can reshape short‑term network needs. Further winter systems in the Great Lakes, Northeast, or Mountain West would likely produce the same two‑sided effect—delaying some filings while encouraging others to formalize as opportunities emerge locally.
Bottom line: The December 22–28 data reflect a holiday‑compressed market where filings skewed heavily toward carriers and clustered right after Christmas, particularly in California, Florida, and Texas. Against a backdrop of cheaper fuel, weather disruptions, and year‑end modal shifts, we expect early‑January registrations to stabilize at modest levels until freight demand re‑accelerates with the return of normal shipping schedules and post‑holiday inventory repositioning.
Sources Consulted: AP/Associated Press; Reuters; AAA Newsroom; FleetOwner; Association of American Railroads (AAR); U.S. Energy Information Administration (schedule page).
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