Introduction
New USDOT registrations cooled during the week of January 19–25, 2026, after two robust early‑January weeks. Using verified filings, this brief analyzes week‑over‑week changes across carriers, brokers, and “other” registrant types, highlights the most active states each day, and connects the patterns to market drivers such as fuel costs, spot rates, and late‑week weather disruptions.
Weekly Overview
– Headline totals: 3,195 new USDOT registrations were recorded for January 19–25, comprising 2,968 carriers (92.9% of the total), 93 brokers (2.9%), and 134 others (4.2%).
– Week‑over‑week: Compared with January 12–18 (3,918 total), filings fell 18.5% (-723). Carriers declined 18.8% (-685), brokers fell 13.1% (-14), and others decreased 15.2% (-24). That shift largely retraces part of the early‑January upswing that followed holiday‑suppressed volumes.
– Intra‑week cadence: Activity peaked midweek. Daily totals were 469 (Mon 1/19), 605 (Tue), 650 (Wed), 632 (Thu), 521 (Fri), 174 (Sat), and 144 (Sun). Weekdays averaged 575 registrations per day, versus 159 on the weekend. The deep weekend trough coincided with a widespread winter storm that disrupted travel and government operations in several regions, likely depressing end‑week filings and pushing some activity into the following week.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 439 | 12 | 18 | 469 |
| 2026-01-20 | 556 | 20 | 29 | 605 |
| 2026-01-21 | 612 | 19 | 19 | 650 |
| 2026-01-22 | 584 | 16 | 32 | 632 |
| 2026-01-23 | 489 | 13 | 19 | 521 |
| 2026-01-24 | 156 | 7 | 11 | 174 |
| 2026-01-25 | 132 | 6 | 6 | 144 |
– Segment notes: Carriers dominated the pullback and also the midweek strength. Broker registrations topped out Tuesday (20) while “others” peaked Thursday (32), underscoring that compliance workflows and back‑office staffing still concentrate filings midweek even when headline demand fluctuates.
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 – 2025-11-09 | 2,825 | 81 | 108 | 3,014 |
| 2025-11-10 – 2025-11-16 | 2,623 | 82 | 94 | 2,799 |
| 2025-11-17 – 2025-11-23 | 2,929 | 103 | 92 | 3,124 |
| 2025-11-24 – 2025-11-30 | 1,875 | 66 | 88 | 2,029 |
| 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-07 | 2,816 | 108 | 102 | 3,026 |
| 2025-12-08 – 2025-12-14 | 2,659 | 100 | 107 | 2,866 |
| 2025-12-15 – 2025-12-21 | 2,597 | 115 | 107 | 2,819 |
| 2025-12-22 – 2025-12-28 | 1,491 | 46 | 69 | 1,606 |
| 2025-12-29 – 2026-01-04 | 1,819 | 64 | 91 | 1,974 |
| 2026-01-05 – 2026-01-11 | 3,405 | 106 | 126 | 3,637 |
| 2026-01-12 – 2026-01-18 | 3,653 | 107 | 158 | 3,918 |
| 2026-01-19 – 2026-01-25 | 2,968 | 93 | 134 | 3,195 |
State‑Level Trends
Leadership was remarkably consistent: Texas, California, and Florida anchored the top tier most days, with occasional surges from Georgia and New York. Highlights by day (top states and counts):
– Mon, Jan 19: TX 65; CA 45; FL 41.
– Tue, Jan 20: TX 63; CA 52; FL 47.
– Wed, Jan 21: CA 63; TX 58; FL 55 (California led midweek).
– Thu, Jan 22: CA 65; FL 64; TX 63 (tight three‑way cluster).
– Fri, Jan 23: TX 63; CA 56; FL 52.
– Sat, Jan 24: TX 25; CA 18; FL 18 (tie for second).
– Sun, Jan 25: TX 17; GA 14; FL 12 (California slipped to fourth at 10).
These patterns reflect the concentration of new‑entrant activity in large freight‑generating states. The shift toward California leadership on January 21–22, followed by a Texas‑led weekend dip, aligns with the storm’s trajectory and localized disruptions across the South and Mid‑Atlantic—conditions that likely impeded filings and in‑person administrative processes.
Market Drivers
– Winter weather and operational friction: A powerful late‑week winter storm produced extensive power outages, federal office closures in the Mid‑Atlantic, and one of the worst days for flight cancellations since 2020 on Sunday, January 25. Such disruptions tend to suppress end‑week filings and push registrations into subsequent business days, contributing to the sharp Saturday–Sunday trough.
– Fuel costs: On‑highway diesel averaged $3.53/gal for the week of January 19 (DOE/EIA benchmark), up roughly 7 cents from the prior week, with notable increases across Gulf Coast, Midwest, West Coast, and Rocky Mountain regions. Elevated or rising diesel prices can deter marginal new entrants and strain newly formed carriers’ cash flow, adding a headwind to registrations during the period. The next official EIA weekly release was scheduled for Tuesday, January 27.
– Rates and capacity: Spot truckload rates remained elevated into mid‑January after a late‑2025 rally, with the FreightWaves National Truckload Index around $2.75/mile (including fuel). DAT separately reported that December spot van and reefer rates hit their highest monthly averages of 2025, as seasonal demand and weather tightened networks. Higher spot rates support new‑carrier formation, but the backdrop of volatility and rising operating costs can limit follow‑through—consistent with our mid‑January peak and subsequent pullback in registrations.
– Near‑term disruptions: The storm’s impact on airports and southern roadways from January 24–26 created wide‑ranging travel and administrative delays, reinforcing the weekend drop in filings and likely spilling into early the following week as backlogs clear.
Outlook
The week of January 19–25 looks more like a mid‑cycle pause than a structural reversal. Three considerations shape the baseline view for the next 1–2 weeks:
1) Weather normalization and backlog effects: With widespread flight cancellations and power outages peaking January 25, we expect a partial rebound as offices reopen and back‑office teams process deferred submissions. That back‑loaded effect typically shows up in Monday–Wednesday counts the following week.
2) Economics of entry: The combination of firmer spot rates and moderately higher diesel prices sends mixed signals. Elevated spot yields are supportive for new carriers, while cost inflation trims margins. If diesel stabilizes near $3.50–$3.55 and rates hold a premium to Q3–Q4 2025 averages, carriers should continue to represent >90% of weekly registrants, with brokers and other categories tracking in a 3–5% band.
3) Seasonality and sentiment: Early‑year optimism often wanes into February, but 2026’s start features tighter capacity than much of 2025, per multiple datasets, which may cushion seasonal dips. That said, volatility around weather and tariffs, plus fuel price swings, argues for choppier week‑to‑week registrations rather than a straight‑line recovery.
Bottom line: New USDOT registrations fell 18–19% from the prior week, led by carriers, with activity concentrated midweek and a weather‑related trough into the weekend. Texas, California, and Florida remained the dominant sources of new filings, with California briefly leading midweek. Near‑term, look for a modest rebound as weather disruptions fade and pending filings clear—tempered by diesel’s recent uptick and generally elevated, but variable, spot‑market economics.
Sources Consulted: FreightWaves, DAT Freight & Analytics, Transport Topics (ttnews.com), FleetOwner, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Houston Chronicle, Investopedia, MarketWatch, Wikipedia.
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