Introduction
The latest USDOT registrations for the week of January 26–February 1, 2026 show a resilient start to the new year even as winter weather disrupted freight networks late in the period. Total new registrations reached 3,347, comprised of 3,044 motor carriers, 135 brokers, and 168 “other” entities (e.g., freight forwarders, intermodal, and passenger operators). As a share of weekly additions, carriers accounted for 90.9%, brokers 4.0%, and others 5.0%. Beneath those topline figures, weekday activity remained robust while weekend numbers—particularly Sunday, February 1—retreated sharply, a familiar administrative pattern rather than a shift in underlying formation trends.
Weekly Overview
Week over week, total registrations rose 4.8% versus January 19–25 (3,347 vs. 3,195). Carriers increased 2.0% (3,044 vs. 2,983), while the more volatile broker segment climbed 45.2% (135 vs. 93). “Others” advanced 41.2% (168 vs. 119). Compared with the mid‑month high the week of January 12–18 (3,918 total), the latest week remains 14.6% lower, suggesting normalization after early‑January strength. The daily cadence underscores the calendar effect: Monday–Friday averaged 631 registrations per day (3,157 across five days), while Saturday and Sunday averaged 95 per day (190 total), including a trough of 10 on February 1.
Two macro factors help frame this print. First, diesel prices moved higher into late January: the U.S. average on‑highway diesel price rose to $3.624 per gallon for the week ended January 27, up 9.4 cents week over week, with broad regional gains led by the Midwest and West Coast. Rising fuel typically spurs some carriers to revisit operating plans and can influence the mix of new entrants and authorities activated. Second, January manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in a year, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.6, signaling incremental demand stability for industrial freight verticals such as machinery, chemicals, and transportation equipment.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | 596 | 30 | 35 | 661 |
| 2026-01-27 | 588 | 20 | 32 | 640 |
| 2026-01-28 | 551 | 24 | 29 | 604 |
| 2026-01-29 | 599 | 26 | 33 | 658 |
| 2026-01-30 | 536 | 31 | 27 | 594 |
| 2026-01-31 | 165 | 4 | 11 | 180 |
| 2026-02-01 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-16 | 2,623 | 81 | 95 | 2,799 |
| 2025-11-17 to 2025-11-23 | 2,932 | 103 | 89 | 3,124 |
| 2025-11-24 to 2025-11-30 | 1,875 | 66 | 88 | 2,029 |
| 2025-12-01 to 2025-12-07 | 2,817 | 107 | 102 | 3,026 |
| 2025-12-08 to 2025-12-14 | 2,660 | 100 | 106 | 2,866 |
| 2025-12-15 to 2025-12-21 | 2,597 | 115 | 107 | 2,819 |
| 2025-12-22 to 2025-12-28 | 1,492 | 46 | 68 | 1,606 |
| 2025-12-29 to 2026-01-04 | 1,819 | 64 | 91 | 1,974 |
| 2026-01-05 to 2026-01-11 | 3,408 | 109 | 120 | 3,637 |
| 2026-01-12 to 2026-01-18 | 3,670 | 106 | 142 | 3,918 |
| 2026-01-19 to 2026-01-25 | 2,983 | 93 | 119 | 3,195 |
| 2026-01-26 to 2026-02-01 | 3,044 | 135 | 168 | 3,347 |
State-Level Trends
Texas and California continued to anchor formation activity through the week, frequently trading the top daily position with Florida consistently among the top three. Highlights by day:
– Mon, Jan 26: Texas (74), California (69), Florida (60).
– Tue, Jan 27: Texas (87), California (67), Florida (50).
– Wed, Jan 28: Texas (72), California (69), Florida (54).
– Thu, Jan 29: California (83), Florida (64), Texas (63).
– Fri, Jan 30: California (79), Texas (61), Florida (46).
– Sat, Jan 31: Texas (22), California (18), Florida (14).
– Sun, Feb 1: Low-volume day; Colorado and Ohio led with two each; seven other states recorded one registration apiece.
This Sun Belt dominance aligns with freight demand and business formation momentum in large, diversified economies with significant consumer, industrial, and import flows. California’s leadership on Thursday and Friday likely reflects end‑of‑week batched filings more than structural change; nonetheless, California, Texas, and Florida together comprised 30–35% of daily additions most days, underscoring their outsized role in capacity refresh.
Market Drivers
Winter Storm Fern tightened capacity and reshaped freight flows in the final days of the period. Truckstop/FTR reported that during the week ended January 30, broker‑posted spot rates jumped by some of the largest weekly amounts on record—refrigerated rates surged 45 cents, dry van rose 20 cents, and flatbed logged its 10th increase in 11 weeks—as load posts rose 17% and the Market Demand Index reached its highest level since March 2022. Those dynamics are consistent with elevated restocking and cleanup demand, driver delays, and routing guide slippage.
Energy costs added another layer. As noted above, the national average diesel price climbed to $3.624 per gallon for the week ended January 27, with the Midwest up 13.4 cents and the West Coast up 11.2 cents week over week. Higher diesel can temporarily compress margins for new and small carriers and may encourage greater use of fuel‑surcharge mechanisms and tighter acceptance on lower‑priced freight.
On the demand side, the January ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, breaking a 12‑month contraction streak. Growth across five of the six largest manufacturing industries—notably transportation equipment, machinery, chemicals, food & beverage, and computers & electronics—supports medium‑term load opportunities in the industrial economy even as ISM’s sub‑indices still show employment contraction and low customer inventories.
Finally, equipment sentiment has been stabilizing. ACT Research confirmed final December Class 8 net orders at 42,684—an outlier month helped by replacement needs and 2027 EPA pre‑buy considerations—which adds to the narrative of carriers positioning for improved utilization in 2026 even if orders normalize in early Q1.
Outlook
– Near term (next 2–3 weeks): Expect formations to track typical early‑February seasonality with weekday volumes in the ~600–650 range and weekends light, barring additional weather shocks. Broker registrations—up 45% week on week—may give back some gains as networks stabilize post‑storm, but tight routing guides in weather‑affected corridors could keep brokerage opportunities elevated for another week or two. Spot rates should ease from their late‑January spikes yet remain firmer than early‑month averages given lingering restocking and repositioning freight.
– Fuel and costs: If diesel continues the late‑January uptick, we could see selective capacity caution from single‑truck and micro‑fleets, with a modest tilt toward contract freight or regional lanes where surcharge pass‑through is more reliable. Keep an eye on EIA’s February 3 update for confirmation.
– Demand signals: The ISM beat sets a constructive tone for industrial loads into late Q1, but mixed sub‑indices (contracting employment, low customer inventories) argue for gradual—not explosive—freight improvement. Transportation equipment’s growth is a positive leading indicator for specialized and automotive‑adjacent carriers.
– Equipment cycle: December’s Class 8 order spike should be viewed as positioning rather than a straight‑line recovery; we anticipate steadier, replacement‑focused buying through Q1 while fleets prioritize yield and utilization over aggressive expansion.
Bottom line: The latest USDOT registration data show steady carrier formation, an outsized weekly jump in brokers, and state leadership concentrated in Texas, California, and Florida. With weather‑induced rate strength rolling off gradually, diesel inching higher, and manufacturing momentum improving, we expect formation activity to remain resilient but disciplined—favoring operators that can capture near‑term pricing while managing fuel and winter variability with tight cost control and selective lane strategies.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update, Jan 27, 2026); Institute for Supply Management (January 2026 Manufacturing PMI release, Feb 2, 2026); Truckstop/FTR Weekly Overview (Feb 2, 2026); Fleet Equipment Magazine summarizing ACT Research Class 8 orders (Jan 27, 2026); MarketWatch/WSJ coverage of January PMI (Feb 3, 2026).
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