Introduction
Between February 2 and February 8, 2026, the pace of new USDOT registrations held essentially flat week over week, masking notable shifts beneath the surface between carriers, brokers, and other registrants. This report analyzes the latest seven-day data, highlights where registrations are coming from geographically, and places the week’s movements in the context of fuel prices, weather-driven capacity shocks, and regulatory developments likely shaping new entrants’ timing and appetite.
Weekly Overview
New registrations totaled 3,486 for the week ending February 8, up by just three filings (+0.1%) from the prior week. Composition changed more meaningfully:
– Carriers: 3,205 (+31, +1.0% w/w), now 91.9% of all registrations (vs. 91.1% prior week).
– Brokers: 102 (-34, -25.0% w/w), falling to 2.9% share (from 3.9%).
– Others: 179 (+6, +3.5% w/w), steady at ~5.1% share.
Daily cadence followed a familiar Monday–Friday heavy pattern with a weekend trough. Total filings were strongest midweek, peaking at 701 on Wednesday, February 4, and easing into Friday (630), before falling sharply over the weekend (194 Saturday; 14 Sunday). Carriers mirrored this arc, topping out at 641 on Wednesday; brokers peaked at 24 the same day. Across the five weekdays, 94% of all filings were processed, with weekends contributing just 6%—a typical administrative rhythm rather than a demand signal.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 (Mon) | 561 | 22 | 33 | 616 |
| 2026-02-03 (Tue) | 614 | 14 | 42 | 670 |
| 2026-02-04 (Wed) | 641 | 24 | 36 | 701 |
| 2026-02-05 (Thu) | 617 | 15 | 29 | 661 |
| 2026-02-06 (Fri) | 582 | 19 | 29 | 630 |
| 2026-02-07 (Sat) | 178 | 7 | 9 | 194 |
| 2026-02-08 (Sun) | 12 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
Recent weeks show a return to late-January levels after the New Year surge (January 5–18), with total weekly registrations stabilizing in the mid‑3,000s. The broker pullback this week stands out against otherwise steady aggregate momentum, suggesting timing or process effects rather than cyclical demand alone.
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 to 2025-11-23 | 2934 | 103 | 87 | 3124 |
| 2025-11-24 to 2025-11-30 | 1875 | 66 | 88 | 2029 |
| 2025-12-01 to 2025-12-07 | 2820 | 107 | 99 | 3026 |
| 2025-12-08 to 2025-12-14 | 2662 | 99 | 105 | 2866 |
| 2025-12-15 to 2025-12-21 | 2599 | 115 | 105 | 2819 |
| 2025-12-22 to 2025-12-28 | 1496 | 46 | 64 | 1606 |
| 2025-12-29 to 2026-01-04 | 1823 | 63 | 88 | 1974 |
| 2026-01-05 to 2026-01-11 | 3416 | 109 | 112 | 3637 |
| 2026-01-12 to 2026-01-18 | 3674 | 107 | 137 | 3918 |
| 2026-01-19 to 2026-01-25 | 2993 | 93 | 109 | 3195 |
| 2026-01-26 to 2026-02-01 | 3174 | 136 | 173 | 3483 |
| 2026-02-02 to 2026-02-08 | 3205 | 102 | 179 | 3486 |
State-Level Trends
Leadership by state was unambiguous: Texas, California, and Florida consistently dominated new filings each day.
– Monday (Feb 2): TX (64), FL (50), CA (50); followed by GA (35) and PA/OH (31 each).
– Tuesday (Feb 3): TX (95), CA (79), FL (43); NY (36), GA (33).
– Wednesday (Feb 4): TX (94), CA (79), FL (60); PA (36), GA (33).
– Thursday (Feb 5): CA (69), TX (68), FL (53); GA (44), NY (30).
– Friday (Feb 6): CA (74), TX (63), FL (53); GA (40), OH (31), PA (30).
– Saturday (Feb 7): TX (21), CA (19), FL (16); GA (11), IL (10).
– Sunday (Feb 8): FL (4), CA (2); several states tied at 1.
The big three—TX, CA, FL—accounted for a substantial share of weekday activity, reflecting their outsized roles in truckload creation, immigrant and small-business formation, port and border proximity (CA, TX, FL), and historically lower fuel costs in Gulf Coast-centric markets (notably Texas). New York, Georgia, and Pennsylvania were regulars in the second tier, consistent with large consumption bases and diversified industrial freight.
Market Drivers
– Weather and short-term pricing: Spot truckload rates rose across all three equipment types in the February 1–7 week, with national broker-to-carrier averages increasing to $2.45/mi (van), $2.94/mi (reefer), and $2.58/mi (flatbed). While total load posts slipped 1% week over week, flatbed demand surged 10%, reinforcing a still‑uneven recovery after January’s storms. For prospective carriers, modestly higher spot rates can improve near‑term revenue math and spur formation—consistent with this week’s slight carrier gains.
– Fuel costs: As of January 2026, average U.S. diesel was $3.52/gal, down 2.5% from December and 3.1% year over year, while gasoline averaged $2.81/gal. Lower fuel outlays reduce operating breakevens, particularly for single‑truck startups. Regionally, Gulf Coast states retain a fuel‑price advantage. The EIA’s weekly update published February 3 (with the next release scheduled for February 10) guides surcharges and planning for new entrants.
– Regional divergence in energy prices: Texas continues to rank among the cheapest fuel markets—helping explain consistently strong registration counts there—whereas parts of New England have faced spikes in heating oil (a distillate cousin of diesel), tightening winter household and commercial budgets. Such divergence can influence where small fleets choose to domicile.
– Emergency waivers and capacity disruptions: FMCSA extended its multi‑state winter-storm emergency declaration into early February, providing temporary hours‑of‑service relief for relief loads. This, paired with late‑January winter storms that tightened capacity, likely sustained spot rates into early February and may have incentivized some carrier registrations to capture short‑run demand.
– Registration process changes: FMCSA’s multi‑phase registration modernization (Motus) is underway. Supporting companies gained limited access on December 8, 2025, with wider access for all users coming in 2026. Transition effects and heightened fraud‑prevention controls could be dampening broker filings short‑term, aligning with this week’s notable broker decline.
Outlook
With total filings steady and carriers inching higher, we expect February registrations to remain near the mid‑3,000s per week, barring a major demand shock. Three signposts to watch in the next 1–2 weeks:
– Spot market follow‑through: If rate firmness persists as weather effects fade, it would suggest underlying demand resilience and could keep carrier formation elevated into late February. Conversely, normalization would likely temper filings toward March seasonality. DAT’s early‑February read points to rate support despite slightly fewer load posts.
– Fuel trajectory: The February 10 EIA update will clarify whether January’s diesel and gasoline relief is carrying into mid‑February—a supportive backdrop for startups’ cash flow and for fleets adding capacity at the margin. Regional spreads will remain pivotal; watch Gulf Coast vs. Northeast differentials.
– Broker rebound vs. process friction: This week’s 25% drop in broker registrations looks outsized relative to demand conditions. We’ll be looking for a payback effect as Motus access expands and as risk teams finish adjusting to new anti‑fraud protocols. If broker filings stay subdued through late February, it would imply genuine consolidation or higher entry barriers rather than timing noise.
Bottom line: The week of February 2–8 shows a stable headline with subtle rebalancing underneath—more carriers, fewer brokers. Geography continues to favor Texas, California, and Florida, consistent with scale, fuel economics, and freight flows. Macro drivers tilt modestly supportive for entrants: rates have a weather‑boosted floor, and fuel costs began 2026 lower than a year earlier. Near‑term risks revolve around additional winter systems and any surprise energy shocks; otherwise, expect registrations to track steady with potential upside if spot strength holds and broker filings normalize.
Sources Consulted: DAT/Blue Book Services (Feb 9, 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration (release schedule and weekly fuel update pages, accessed Feb 9–10, 2026); Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Motor Fuel Prices, January 2026 (release Feb 3, 2026); FMCSA — Registration Modernization (Motus) page (accessed Feb 9, 2026); Overdrive — FMCSA winter-storm HOS relief extension (Feb 4, 2026); LMTonline — Texas fuel prices (Feb 7, 2026); CT Insider — Connecticut heating oil prices (Feb 5, 2026).
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
This content is the exclusive property of truckstopinsider.com. Reposting is permitted, provided a direct link to the original article is included.
