Introduction
During the week of February 9–15, 2026, a total of 3,390 new USDOT registrations were recorded across the United States. Carriers continued to dominate new filings (3,149; 92.9% of the total), with brokers (87; 2.6%) and other registrants (154; 4.5%) making up the remainder. The cadence of applications was front‑loaded toward midweek, peaking on Wednesday (714) and tapering into the weekend; Sunday saw a minimal eight filings, consistent with typical weekend processing lulls. This registration pulse unfolded against a freight market that, while seasonally past the January restart, is showing pockets of tightening and weather-related noise, and amid fuel prices that remain moderate nationally but are rising sharply in California.
Weekly Overview
Week over week, total registrations slipped 5.8% from 3,600 in February 2–8 to 3,390 in February 9–15. Carriers fell 5.5% (3,331 to 3,149), “others” declined 8.9% (169 to 154), and brokers posted the steepest drop at 13.0% (100 to 87). Despite the aggregate decline from the prior week, overall volumes remain broadly in line with the late‑January/early‑February band, down just 2.7% versus the week ending February 1 (3,483). Daily flows tracked a familiar intraweek pattern: strong Monday–Thursday, easing into Friday, and markedly lower weekend activity. Wednesday’s 670 carrier filings were the high‑water mark for the segment, while broker registrations ranged 12–22 per day before effectively pausing on Sunday.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 (Mon) | 618 | 17 | 22 | 657 |
| 2026-02-10 (Tue) | 620 | 22 | 30 | 672 |
| 2026-02-11 (Wed) | 670 | 17 | 27 | 714 |
| 2026-02-12 (Thu) | 580 | 16 | 31 | 627 |
| 2026-02-13 (Fri) | 523 | 12 | 34 | 569 |
| 2026-02-14 (Sat) | 132 | 3 | 8 | 143 |
| 2026-02-15 (Sun) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
To place the latest week in context, the table below shows recent weekly totals since early January. The current week sits between the high‑volume mid‑January restart and the steadier pace of late January/early February.
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 – 2026-01-11 | 3421 | 109 | 107 | 3637 |
| 2026-01-12 – 2026-01-18 | 3674 | 107 | 137 | 3918 |
| 2026-01-19 – 2026-01-25 | 3004 | 91 | 100 | 3195 |
| 2026-01-26 – 2026-02-01 | 3188 | 134 | 161 | 3483 |
| 2026-02-02 – 2026-02-08 | 3331 | 100 | 169 | 3600 |
| 2026-02-09 – 2026-02-15 | 3149 | 87 | 154 | 3390 |
State-Level Trends
Leadership by state was concentrated, with Texas at the forefront on five of seven days. California led once (Wednesday), and Washington topped the list on Sunday’s very light day.
– Monday (2/9): TX (77), CA (58), FL (50)
– Tuesday (2/10): TX (72), CA (70), FL (54)
– Wednesday (2/11): CA (90), TX (70), PA (52)
– Thursday (2/12): TX (94), CA (60), FL (57)
– Friday (2/13): TX (76), CA (74), FL (53)
– Saturday (2/14): TX (18), FL (15), CA (10)
– Sunday (2/15): WA (2), then FL/CO/IL/NJ/IA/WI (1 each)
Texas’s consistent lead reflects its outsized share of for‑hire and private fleets, oilfield‑adjacent activity, and strong intra‑Sunbelt freight corridors. California’s midweek strength is notable given its higher operating costs; nonetheless, the state’s market scale, import gateways, and dense local distribution networks continue to generate starter‑fleet formations even as fuel costs rise. Washington’s Sunday lead is a statistical artifact of very low weekend volumes rather than a structural shift.
Market Drivers
– Freight demand and acceptance. Industry trackers reported that national outbound tender volumes remained above typical early‑February levels last week, while the Outbound Tender Rejection Index averaged 13.44%, signaling some tightening in routing‑guide compliance. This supports the view that carriers see improving revenue opportunities—often a catalyst for new authority filings.
– Spot market pulse. The first week of February saw linehaul spot rates rise across all major modes amid winter weather disruptions: DAT reported week‑over‑week gains of $0.07 for dry van (to $2.08), $0.08 for reefer (to $2.57), and $0.05 for flatbed (to $2.21). FTR/Truckstop likewise characterized the spot market as “stressed,” with load postings up and the Market Demand Index at its highest since March 2022. These dynamics can draw would‑be entrants off the sidelines, though the effect typically lags by several weeks.
– Ocean and import backdrop. On the international side, China–U.S. ocean rates stabilized as the pre‑Lunar New Year shipping window closed, easing immediate pressure on West Coast drayage and transload networks. That said, congestion at some Asian origins persisted. Stable ocean rates and predictable import flows reduce volatility for domestic truckload planning.
– Fuel costs. Energy conditions remain relatively constructive for over‑the‑road operators. The EIA’s February Short‑Term Energy Outlook forecasts distillate (diesel) consumption to grow about 2% in both 2026 and 2027, consistent with recovering industrial activity, while its oil market outlook points to lower average crude prices through 2026 than in 2025—both factors that, if realized, could anchor diesel closer to recent levels. As of February 9, the EIA‑based national on‑highway diesel benchmark sat around $3.69/gal (with California near $4.85/gal). Notably, California gasoline prices have climbed quickly, up nearly 40 cents in the past month to about $4.59/gal—an example of regional fuel divergence that can compress margins for new entrants concentrated in high‑cost states.
– Weather effects. Residual winter weather disruptions in early February—particularly across the Eastern half of the U.S.—tightened capacity episodically and affected equipment repositioning, contributing to higher rejection rates and spot gains cited above. Such transitory shocks can spur registrations when small fleets perceive near‑term pricing power.
Outlook
Looking ahead to the remainder of February, we expect registrations to track a slightly softer but still healthy pace relative to early January’s surge. Three forces will shape the near‑term trajectory:
1) Freight pricing buoyancy with a lag. The recent lift in spot rates and elevated rejection indices suggest revenue conditions are improving from late‑2025 troughs. If this firmness holds into late February and early March, a modest rebound in new carrier authorities could follow with a 2–4 week lag as prospective entrants finalize insurance, equipment, and compliance steps.
2) Fuel as a differentiator. The EIA’s latest outlook implies no imminent fuel‑price shock at the national level, which should support cash‑flow planning for single‑truck startups. However, sharp regional divergence—especially on the West Coast—means margin structures will vary widely by domicile and lane mix. New entrants in California and parts of the Pacific Northwest will need to price aggressively, target backhaul quality, or tilt toward higher‑yield segments (e.g., temperature‑controlled) to offset pump‑price headwinds.
3) Seasonality and operations. The post‑Valentine’s window often transitions toward produce‑led reefer strength (South Texas and South Florida) and steady industrial flows for flatbed across the Gulf and Midwest. That mix favors states like TX and FL continuing to post elevated filings relative to smaller markets, while California’s new‑entrant cadence may remain choppy given fuel and regulatory cost pressures. Stable China–U.S. ocean rates post‑holiday should also help keep domestic network volatility manageable.
Bottom line: The February 9–15 dip in new USDOT registrations appears cyclical rather than structural—driven by normal intraweek filing patterns and the comedown from early‑month highs. With spot pricing firming, tender rejections elevated, and national diesel conditions manageable, the environment remains conducive to disciplined new‑entrant activity. We expect filings to stabilize near current levels in the next one to two weeks, with upside risk if spot strength persists and weather‑related imbalances continue to support yields—especially in Texas‑centric lanes and reefer‑heavy corridors.
Sources Consulted: MegaCorp Logistics (Market Pulse, week of Feb 9–15, 2026); TruckingDive (DAT weekly spot-rate tracker, Feb 12, 2026); FTR/Truckstop Weekly (Feb 9, 2026); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Feb 10, 2026) and Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update; Newsweek (AAA California fuel update, Feb 16, 2026); Freight Right (Ocean market update, week of Feb 9, 2026); National Distribution Alliance (EIA-based diesel benchmarks, Feb 9, 2026).
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