Introduction
New USDOT registrations softened in the latest week of available data, February 16–22, 2026. Total new filings reached 3,370 across carriers, brokers, and other entity types. The pullback was broad-based but most pronounced among motor carriers, while “other” categories bucked the trend. The cadence of filings followed a typical weekday-heavy pattern, with midweek peaks and a sharp weekend trough. Against this backdrop, fuel prices nudged higher and late-week winter weather began to disrupt freight networks—factors that will likely shape near‑term registration momentum. EIA reported another weekly uptick in retail diesel on February 16, and a major blizzard in the Northeast from February 22–24 brought travel bans and widespread shutdowns that may show up more fully in next week’s filings.
Weekly Overview
Week over week, total registrations fell 4.7% to 3,370 (down 165 from 3,535 in the prior week). By segment:
– Carriers: 3,110, down 5.5% from 3,291.
– Brokers: 80, down 10.1% from 89.
– Others: 180, up 16.1% from 155.
Carriers comprised 92.3% of all filings this week (vs. 93.1% last week), brokers 2.4% (vs. 2.5%), and “others” 5.3% (vs. 4.4%). The intraweek rhythm was front‑loaded: Tuesday (743) set the high, with Wednesday (677) and Friday (677) tied for second. The weekend slump was steep—Saturday fell to 227 and Sunday to just 3 filings—consistent with limited weekend processing.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | 449 | 6 | 31 | 486 |
| 2026-02-17 | 700 | 11 | 32 | 743 |
| 2026-02-18 | 620 | 23 | 34 | 677 |
| 2026-02-19 | 517 | 14 | 26 | 557 |
| 2026-02-20 | 618 | 21 | 38 | 677 |
| 2026-02-21 | 204 | 5 | 18 | 227 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Recent weekly totals show that the current dip extends a modest, two‑week easing from early‑February highs, though activity remains stronger than late December:
| Start | End | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-04 | 1832 | 62 | 80 | 1974 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-11 | 3421 | 109 | 107 | 3637 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-18 | 3675 | 107 | 136 | 3918 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-25 | 3006 | 93 | 96 | 3195 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-01 | 3202 | 135 | 146 | 3483 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-08 | 3337 | 100 | 163 | 3600 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2026-02-15 | 3291 | 89 | 155 | 3535 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-22 | 3110 | 80 | 180 | 3370 |
State-Level Trends
Leadership at the state level rotated among the “big three” freight states—Texas, California, and Florida—mirroring freight demand hotspots and seasonal produce flows:
– Mon (Feb 16): Texas led with 60, followed by Florida (44) and California (39).
– Tue (Feb 17): Texas and California tied for first (76 each); Florida third (63).
– Wed (Feb 18): California (73), Florida (62), Texas (58).
– Thu (Feb 19): Texas (59), with Florida and California tied for second (51 each).
– Fri (Feb 20): Texas (80), California (76), Florida (54).
– Sat (Feb 21): Florida (24), Texas (23), California (15).
– Sun (Feb 22): Texas (2) and Utah (1) were the only states recording filings.
Beyond the leaders, Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, and New York consistently appeared in the upper tier. Notably, Canadian provinces (e.g., ON, QC, AB, BC, SK) registered modest but steady cross‑border activity during the workweek—consistent with U.S.–Canada carrier expansion patterns. The Saturday tilt toward Florida aligns with late‑February reefer seasonality as South Florida produce ramps; industry updates this past week flagged South Florida and South Texas as high‑paying reefer markets through late February.
Market Drivers
– Fuel costs inched higher. EIA’s weekly On‑Highway Diesel report published February 18 (reflecting Monday, February 16 prices) showed the U.S. average at $3.711/gal, up 2.3 cents week over week. The Gulf Coast remained the lowest‑cost region ($3.412), while California climbed to $4.860. Rising diesel increases operating costs for new entrants and can temper risk appetite among would‑be owner‑operators.
– Late‑week weather disruptions intensified. A powerful nor’easter from February 22–24 triggered travel bans, widespread flight cancellations, and power outages across the Northeast. These disruptions likely constrained filings at the tail end of the current week and could depress early‑next‑week counts in affected states before backlogs are processed mid‑ to late week.
– Capacity narratives remain mixed but lean tighter than last year. DAT’s February 17 analysis highlighted that dry van rates are being supported by capacity contraction even as freight volumes remain subdued. That dynamic can simultaneously encourage some carrier startups (to capture improving spot yields) while discouraging others facing higher fuel and insurance costs.
– Day‑to‑day operations reflected winter risk premiums. Logistics advisories last week underscored freeze‑protection surcharges, anticipated delays, and service suspensions in the Northeast—conditions that complicate fleet onboarding and back‑office workflows tied to registrations and insurance filings.
– Trade policy noise adds uncertainty at the margin. A February 19 supply chain brief called out the possibility of added levies on foreign‑built vessels moving U.S. imports, a change that, if enacted, could alter routing decisions and demand profiles in drayage and transload markets over the coming months. While not yet policy, such headlines contribute to planning caution among brokers and carriers.
Outlook
Looking ahead to the week of February 23–29, two countervailing forces are in play:
– Short‑term drag: The Northeast blizzard (February 22–24) is poised to suppress early‑week filings in New York, New Jersey, New England, and adjacent markets given road restrictions, office closures, and utility outages. Expect a catch‑up effect mid‑ to late week as agencies and compliance vendors clear backlogs.
– Seasonal lift pockets: South Florida and South Texas reefer demand should continue to provide a supportive backdrop for carrier formation in those regions as produce volumes build through early March, while Texas and the broader Gulf remain constructive for flatbed and energy‑adjacent freight. This aligns with this week’s state‑level leaders and recent market color pointing trucks toward those lanes.
From a cost standpoint, any further creep in diesel prices would weigh on smaller carriers’ break‑evens and could moderate net new carrier filings, particularly outside the strongest spot markets. Keep an eye on EIA’s next weekly release (scheduled for Wednesday, February 18 due to the Presidents’ Day calendar shift) for confirmation of trend direction.
Finally, broker formation remains comparatively soft. While this week’s broker registrations (80) were only modestly below the prior week (89), industry discussions continue to point to stricter enforcement under FMCSA’s broker/forwarder financial responsibility rule (effective January 16, 2026) as a structural headwind for marginal entrants. Tougher standards—especially around BMC‑85 trust fund assets and swift suspensions when financial security dips—should continue to nudge the broker population toward better capitalization and compliance, but at the cost of fewer new starts.
Bottom line: For the week ended February 22, 2026, new USDOT registrations eased modestly, with carriers and brokers both down week over week and “other” categories higher. State leaders cycled among Texas, California, and Florida, with Florida’s weekend resilience likely tied to reefer seasonality. Short‑term weather disruptions and slightly higher fuel costs argue for a choppy start to the current week, followed by a catch‑up in filings as conditions normalize. Regional opportunity remains strongest in South Florida, South Texas, and the Gulf/Midwest industrial corridors; expect registration momentum to mirror those freight bright spots in the near term.
Sources Consulted: U.S. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (published Feb 18, 2026); DAT Freight & Analytics blog (Feb 17, 2026); Wall Street Journal, Axios storm coverage (Feb 23–24, 2026); Wikipedia summary of the Feb 22–24, 2026 Northeast blizzard; Kintetsu World Express customer advisory (Feb 23, 2026); Brighter Logistics market update (Feb 19, 2026); SBA Global Logistics market brief (Feb 19, 2026); FMCSA broker/forwarder financial responsibility rule overview (effective Jan 16, 2026).
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