Trans-Pacific spot rates are edging higher into mid‑September as carriers push fresh general rate increases and shippers tidy up orders ahead of China’s Golden Week factory downtime. The modest firming comes alongside more constructive headlines out of U.S.–China talks — including a possible TikTok deal — that have nudged confidence without changing the demand picture in a big way.
By the latest weekly read, Freightos’ FBX shows China–US West Coast spot prices up 7% week over week to about $2,309 per FEU, with East Coast rates up 4% to $3,368. Asia–North Europe ticked up 2% while Asia–Mediterranean slipped 4%. Analysts point to early‑month GRIs, more blanked sailings and pre–Golden Week cargoes as supports. Carriers are also rearranging vessels to limit exposure to pending U.S. port‑call fees on Chinese‑built or China‑linked ships — another temporary prop for rates as networks shuffle.
That policy wildcard is getting very real. Starting October 14, new U.S. fees will hit ships that are Chinese‑built, owned or operated, with initial charges estimated at roughly $1 million to $2.7 million per 10,000‑TEU call and scheduled to escalate over time. Lines haven’t broadly added surcharges yet, but executives and cargo owners are bracing for pass‑through costs or service changes that could ripple through port pairings and inland routings.
On the demand side, August U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside — up 0.6% month over month — but the backdrop remains fragile as the labor market cools. That mix argues for targeted restocking rather than a classic peak season surge, which aligns with the smaller, GRI‑driven rate lift we’re seeing on the ocean side.
China’s latest macro print underscores the caution: August retail sales rose 3.4% year over year and industrial output grew 5.2%, both softer than forecasts. Near‑term export flows ahead of Golden Week can still generate short spikes, but domestic demand isn’t roaring back — another reason to expect a choppy, not sweeping, recovery in ocean volumes.
Port pulse checks remain mixed. In Southern California, the Port of Long Beach logged its second‑busiest August on record, a reminder that front‑loaded orders and seasonal pulls continue to support drayage demand even as broader trade uncertainty persists.
What this means for U.S. trucking
– Port drayage: Expect a late‑September flurry as pre–Golden Week boxes clear and carriers execute network changes ahead of the October 14 fee start. Watch for weekend/night gates, tighter appointment windows and localized chassis stress around LA/LB and other major gateways as blank sailings bunch arrivals.
– Intermodal and TL flows: A small ocean‑to‑inland bump should support transload and ramp activity into the Inland Empire, Phoenix, Dallas and Chicago, but the magnitude looks modest. If lines rotate ships to avoid higher‑fee exposure, some port pairings could see temporary dips or surges, so carriers should keep teams ready to re‑position power and trailers on short notice.
– Fuel and margins: National on‑highway diesel averaged $3.739/gal on September 15, down 2.7 cents on the week but roughly 21 cents above a year ago. Calibrate surcharges promptly — small weekly moves still matter in tight-margin dray and TL work.
– October set‑up: Expect a brief soft patch during China’s holiday closures, then a catch‑up wave that could collide with mid‑month policy shifts. Keep an eye on additional GRIs and blank sailings, any final guidance on port‑fee implementation, and signals from U.S.–China talks; together they’ll steer ocean flows — and by extension, inland freight — through Q4.
Bottom line for fleets and brokers: Ocean rates are firming, but on supports (GRIs, blankings, network reshuffles) rather than a true demand breakout. For trucking, that argues for flexible staffing and asset positioning around key ports, disciplined fuel pass‑throughs, and nimble load planning to capture short, policy‑driven surges without over‑committing capacity.
Sources: FreightWaves, Freightos, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, U.S. Energy Information Administration, gCaptain
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