For-hire shipment activity worsened in August, with year-over-year declines accelerating, according to the latest Cass Freight Index update highlighted by FreightWaves. The headline takeaway: freight demand remains soft even as some month-to-month metrics stabilized, underscoring a market still working off excess capacity and shifting seasonality.
Macro signals released this week add important context. U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August from July, beating expectations and suggesting consumers are still spending — but analysts cautioned some of the lift reflects higher prices tied to tariff policy rather than volume growth. For carriers and brokers, that means “demand” on paper may not translate to proportional freight loads on the road.
Production data showed a similar nuance. Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August, with manufacturing output up 0.2% and motor vehicles and parts jumping 2.6%. That auto rebound can buoy Midwest and automotive corridors short term, but the broader factory uptick was modest — consistent with a freight market that is stabilizing more than rebounding.
At the gateways, the flow of goods has been strong — but early. The Port of Los Angeles processed 958,355 TEUs in August, nearly matching last year’s robust pace. Executive Director Gene Seroka said holiday imports arrived ahead of schedule as retailers hedged against shifting tariff policies, and warned volumes are likely to taper into year-end. A separate briefing indicated September throughput could land near 850,000 TEUs, implying a softer handoff to inland trucking in the next few weeks.
Rail offers a read on mid‑September momentum: for the week ending September 13, total U.S. rail traffic fell 1.6% year over year, with intermodal units down 2.6%. That pullback suggests domestic surface freight is starting September on a slower footing — a potential headwind for truckload volumes that rely on transloaded imports and domestic manufacturing flows.
Housing — a key flatbed driver — is flashing caution. August single‑family starts fell 7.0% and permits slipped 2.2% from July, signaling weaker near‑term demand for construction materials even as mortgage rates drifted lower. For flatbed carriers, that points to softer project pipelines heading into the fall.
Costs are a mixed bag but tilting supportive. The national DOE/EIA on‑highway diesel average fell to $3.739 on September 15, down 2.7 cents week over week. That eases fuel‑surcharge pressure and offers some relief to carriers whose margins have been squeezed by weak spot pricing.
Policy may lend incremental help. On September 17, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 4.00%–4.25% range, citing a shift in risks toward employment. While financing costs don’t move overnight, cheaper credit over time can lower fleet borrowing expenses and support equipment refinancing for carriers that survived the downcycle.
What it means on the ground: August’s faster year‑over‑year shipment decline tells carriers and brokers to brace for a lumpy peak. Retailers pulled demand forward into July–August at the ports, rail volumes are slipping into mid‑September, and construction indicators are weakening. Expect tender volumes to fade from early‑peak levels and spot capacity to stay competitive until inventories need a true restock. Watch three levers in the weeks ahead: consumer goods sell‑through (to see if retail strength is price or volume), diesel’s trajectory (for margin recovery), and contract repricing dynamics as monetary policy eases. In short: plan for a choppy shoulder season, not a straight‑line recovery.
Sources: FreightWaves; U.S. Census/Reuters; Federal Reserve; Port of Los Angeles; Association of American Railroads; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Reuters housing
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