The Port of Los Angeles is bracing for a roughly 10% year-over-year drop in imports through the rest of 2025 after retailers front‑loaded holiday goods, a shift that is poised to take some heat out of Southern California drayage and long‑haul volumes this fall. Port Executive Director Gene Seroka said September is tracking near 850,000 TEUs — about 10% softer than last year — and expects demand to ease into the holidays after an unusually early peak.
Even with that cooling outlook, August throughput in Los Angeles remained elevated: the port processed 958,355 TEUs, nearly matching last year’s robust tally. Loaded imports were 504,514 TEUs (down 1% y/y) and loaded exports rose 5% to 127,379 TEUs. Seroka called July–August the best two‑month stretch for any Western Hemisphere port, while cautioning that much of the year‑end freight “is already here.” For carriers and brokers, that suggests a busier Q3 handoff — but a softer Q4 shipping pipeline.
Across the harbor, Long Beach posted its second‑busiest August ever at 901,846 TEUs, with officials likewise pointing to tariff uncertainty and early ordering by retailers. Year to date, Long Beach volumes are up more than 8%, but leadership there also signaled a steadier, not surging, run‑rate into winter.
Why it matters for trucking: the early import pull‑forward is now flipping the script. The recent surge into San Pedro Bay appears to have crested, and the import curve is bending lower as peak season freight has already been de‑risked. Analysts and port officials expect sequential declines in the coming weeks as retailers work through swollen inventories, a dynamic that typically trims container pulls, transload turns and outbound long‑haul volume from Southern California.
Policy volatility is doing much of the steering. Retailers accelerated buying to get ahead of shifting tariff settings, which juiced summer volumes but pulled forward demand that would normally land in late September and October. August remained strong against five‑year baselines, yet Los Angeles officials warned that the next few months are likely to be choppy as trade rules remain in flux.
For asset and drayage fleets, that means planning for fewer gate moves per day and more variable appointment flow as blank sailings and lighter strings hit terminal schedules. For long‑haul carriers, expect some incremental intermodal competition on key lanes: Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern just announced a new domestic intermodal link via Kansas City that connects the Louisville area with Los Angeles and other Western markets beginning mid‑October — a product aimed squarely at time‑sensitive freight that might otherwise move by truck.
One modest tailwind: fuel. Government data this week showed a 4‑million‑barrel build in U.S. distillate inventories (which include diesel), easing some near‑term price pressure even as crude stocks fell sharply. If that trend holds, diesel surcharges could stabilize as SoCal outbound freight cools.
Bottom line for SoCal trucking: the docks just ran their best two‑month stretch in memory, but the holiday surge is largely in the rearview. With Los Angeles projecting a double‑digit import decline into year‑end, carriers should expect a more balanced market — steadier than a typical December crunch — and pivot capacity to shorter‑haul replenishment and retail push freight as inventories turn. Stay close to intermodal service changes and watch daily terminal forecasts; as the pendulum swings from front‑loading to digestion, the winners will be those that re‑time assets and pricing to where the freight actually is.
Sources: FreightWaves, Port of Los Angeles, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Politico, gCaptain, MyNewsLA, RailMarket
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